11/20/2015 Live Update

[DellGriffith]

Daily SPY:

trying to print two consecutive red candles in an uptrend again. That has a 19-12 record of marking tops. Improved by one after successfully calling the last top. (reference: 11/9 update page 2). In this case, we'd be marking the end of wave b up and the start of wave c down.

still 40 min to go, hard to say red or not today.

I'll have to look at the red/black candle combo.

[Tutti]

...and CMG for the win: hit by the CDC w an ecoli outbreak warning -10%

[jaijailyc]

Sell imbalance!

[ALdaytrade]

SPY 209 key level.. uptrend, ascending triangle restest... breaks... morning gap fill .. mind red uptrend SPX 60m bottom right breaks.. 2070.

Looks like $VIX has one more down day and then up. Maybe one half of a day for Monday?

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2015/11 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been generally bull friendly. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[Mr. BachNut]

A couple of things Nikman:

I don't expect anything. I don't predict anything. I haven't a clue what will happen.
However, I trade possibilities and look for technical levels to which trade might go.

This NYMO model I post simply takes a view that price moves have a relationship to moves in advances/declines, and that the price level at NYMO oscillator highs and lows is technically important.
There is some judgement involved in assessing whether a NYMO high or low is in.

Typically, I only place targets in the direction NYMO is going (currently up).
However, today I left some downside targets on there from the recent down cycle.
The issue is that it is common, once oversold, for NYMO to make a corrective move back to the zero line and then resume its prior direction to make either a higher or lower low.
Because NYMO has struggled and has not closed above zero, the recent move may be corrective as opposed to progressive.
Time will tell. The most salient moment of the week is the Friday close, and as of now (3:55), I have got NYMO just a few ticks above zero. Not strong...

So, there are a couple of scenarios from here and to the downside are among them.
From a trading perspective, I guess I would say that at the moment odds favor the bulls, but asymmetry favors the bears for the days ahead.
That is to say going long here may work but return for the risk may be better short or waiting for a pullback to long.
I am long and will take profits if stopped out. If that happens, I'll be looking to re-long at lower levels if possible as long as it looks like NYMO is not going to make lower lows to 11/13.

Mr. BackNut, Am I reading your chart correctly? You're expecting a corrective pullback to 2042 or even lower to 2020? Especially because everyone is saying that we are now cleared for the retest of the all time high. Thanks in advance for the clarification.

Further upside targets are marked.

I have kept some of my downside targets on the chart.
Because NYMO has not shown the same vigor as price, I am open to the possibility of a corrective pullback after OPEX.
Also, the failure of price to reach benchmark in the last downcycle (3 handles shy) may be unfinished business or at least call for a test.
If we get a corrective move, I'll be looking for evidence of positive divergence in NYMO.

I was a little net short last post (short with a hedge).
Shorts were closed for a profit on the break of the 200 day MA.
I overstayed my welcome as I was waiting for a tag of the benchmark. At least the register was rung.
Longs are still on with a profit stop.

I may day trade short a corrective move, but assuming the upcycle holds, I'll want to gather or reload longs on a pullback.

NYMO 112015.jpg

[DellGriffith]

Wow. not even a black bar. a white bar by one cent.

[nikman]

Thanks Mr. BachNut. Your analysis makes a lot of sense to me. I appreciate your taking the time to explain it.

A couple of things Nikman:

I don't expect anything. I don't predict anything. I haven't a clue what will happen.
However, I trade possibilities and look for technical levels to which trade might go.

This NYMO model I post simply takes a view that price moves have a relationship to moves in advances/declines, and that the price level at NYMO oscillator highs and lows is technically important.
There is some judgement involved in assessing whether a NYMO high or low is in.

Typically, I only place targets in the direction NYMO is going (currently up).
However, today I left some downside targets on there from the recent down cycle.
The issue is that it is common, once oversold, for NYMO to make a corrective move back to the zero line and then resume its prior direction to make either a higher or lower low.
Because NYMO has struggled and has not closed above zero, the recent move may be corrective as opposed to progressive.
Time will tell. The most salient moment of the week is the Friday close, and as of now (3:55), I have got NYMO just a few ticks above zero. Not strong...

So, there are a couple of scenarios from here and to the downside are among them.
From a trading perspective, I guess I would say that at the moment odds favor the bulls, but asymmetry favors the bears for the days ahead.
That is to say going long here may work but return for the risk may be better short or waiting for a pullback to long.
I am long and will take profits if stopped out. If that happens, I'll be looking to re-long at lower levels if possible as long as it looks like NYMO is not going to make lower lows to 11/13.

Mr. BackNut, Am I reading your chart correctly? You're expecting a corrective pullback to 2042 or even lower to 2020? Especially because everyone is saying that we are now cleared for the retest of the all time high. Thanks in advance for the clarification.

Further upside targets are marked.

I have kept some of my downside targets on the chart.
Because NYMO has not shown the same vigor as price, I am open to the possibility of a corrective pullback after OPEX.
Also, the failure of price to reach benchmark in the last downcycle (3 handles shy) may be unfinished business or at least call for a test.
If we get a corrective move, I'll be looking for evidence of positive divergence in NYMO.

I was a little net short last post (short with a hedge).
Shorts were closed for a profit on the break of the 200 day MA.
I overstayed my welcome as I was waiting for a tag of the benchmark. At least the register was rung.
Longs are still on with a profit stop.

I may day trade short a corrective move, but assuming the upcycle holds, I'll want to gather or reload longs on a pullback.

NYMO 112015.jpg