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If you want the bearish view:brokebybernacke2 wrote:Yes dandruff wars saw head and shoulders win , given few support levels between here and below , it is possible H s plays out and we slide..but think oversold levels long in tooth...DellGriffith wrote:What I find interesting is that, the longer these streaks go, the more BEARISH traders seem to get. We're on day 49. There's serious danger of a huge relief rally at any moment now. Yet, traders are more bearish than ever. They seem to expect things will tip over NOW, on day 49, to SPY 1600 or something. I've seen those predicitons. That's like saying things are worse now than they were in 2008. That seems silly to me. I loaded up on calls instead and I think its the right move. My soul is ready.
New low next week or 2 spy 182/3 (uempel thursday?)
Bounce to 198 spy dead cat super resistance there..
Then big time vix moves ...
Flash crash 2010, complete with phantom bar to lows. TOS datauser13 wrote:Does anyone have a 5min chart (preferably from stockcharts) of the 2010 flash crash?
TIA!
Thanks for posting! I admit I cannot see what gives you your buy signals (altho I see the buy signals as blue arrows) based upon the chart that you posted. However, you said it gave you a buy signal on BOTH thursday and friday, which is interesting because my own system I used to go long at the close on thursday also gave me big buy signals on thursday and friday.rhight wrote:Hey folks, I haven't posted in 18 months or more, I lurk once in awhile and have noticed the loyal crowd is still posting. That's great! I'm a swing to intermediate trader, and still in it. Included is an image with my buy signals from the past two years. In early 2014 a buy signal was followed by one last flush, and then the second signal caught the uptrend. The signal in late August 2015 came too late (8/27) and I was caught in the meat grinder. Otherwise it's fairly spot on. I just went long on Friday at 1876 (SSO) with an aggressive entry after my system generated a Buy on Thursday, and then again on Friday. Robert Miner says that if your method gives you a buy, then you have to buy, or you might as well not have a system! We will see, but my money is on the line. I have a stop below the LOD, so I hope we don't gap down big on Tuesday morning! If so I'll re-enter long at some point soon, unless the market is in some sort of crazy crash scenario. This time could be different because of the last two bear markets that are so clear on the charts.
There is a long term system I heard espoused by some old-timer around 2009 that simply used the Monthly 8 and 13 EMA cross. If January were to close where it is now, this month would mark the bear cross of those two averages. In the last two instances (2000, 2008) price never closed back above the monthly 13EMA until the bear was over. Check it out.
20% long, 0.5% at risk.
still, it is the timing. everything points to a relief rally soon, but it does not exclude a capitulation day coming first. we will have to see. the risk is not worth the early entry.jademann wrote:Street.com calling for a bounce.
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13418329 ... _ven=YAHOO
Uempel, I agree with his judgement. these guys however has much longer investment horizon than us. he might be talking about months away.uempel wrote:Suggest that all the bulls who want to fight the bear google: Lawrence D. Fink, CNBC Squawkbox Friday Jan 15th. The boss of BlackRock sees another 10% to the downside. BlackRock is one on the biggest Moneymanagers and can influence the markets.
Fighting the trend here is playing rouge/noir in Roulette. The odds are 50/50 and that's not attractive.