01/23/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows distribution up and accumulation just starts to go up, so probably no bottom yet.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[nikman]

Hi Cobra, I have a feeling that there was a lot of short covering in Nasdaq 100 stocks today and so this chart will look different next week (closer to the green line than what this chart shows).

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[josephli]

Hi Cobra, I have a feeling that there was a lot of short covering in Nasdaq 100 stocks today and so this chart will look different next week (closer to the green line than what this chart shows).

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

no intraday strong momentum, no huge volume. any chance to further explain why you think so?

[nikman]

I meant to say "this week", not "today". I looked at the Nasdaq 100 chart on the top of this picture and it shows the market still moving down at the far right, and since Nasdaq 100 recovered all its losses from earlier this week, it led me to think that the data might be a couple of days old. The first chart in this weekend update is definitely from yesterday's close (NYA's closing price from Thursday).

Hi Cobra, I have a feeling that there was a lot of short covering in Nasdaq 100 stocks today and so this chart will look different next week (closer to the green line than what this chart shows).

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

no intraday strong momentum, no huge volume. any chance to further explain why you think so?

[josephli]

I meant to say "this week", not "today". I looked at the Nasdaq 100 chart on the top of this picture and it shows the market still moving down at the far right, and since Nasdaq 100 recovered all its losses from earlier this week, it led me to think that the data might be a couple of days old. The first chart in this weekend update is definitely from yesterday's close (NYA's closing price from Thursday).

Hi Cobra, I have a feeling that there was a lot of short covering in Nasdaq 100 stocks today and so this chart will look different next week (closer to the green line than what this chart shows).

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

no intraday strong momentum, no huge volume. any chance to further explain why you think so?

;D weekly make more sense.

[Al_Dente]

WHALE WATCHING AT DAVOS, SWITZERLAND:

Per a Davos interview a couple days ago, Soros is short SPX and long U.S. Treasurys.

Larry Fink (CEO of BlackRock … with about $4.5 trillion Assets Under Management) told CNBC at Davos he “thinks the markets will end the year higher. But to get there, the market needs a bit of a shakeout. I do believe there is a need for blood in the street… We need to work out all the excess inventories. In energy the only way that’s going to happen is through bankruptcies of some of the oil companies as they stop pumping. So this is all good. This is a good process actually. This market correction weeds out the weak."

Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates (with $155 billion AUM), is worried about growth in the global economy.
“I think a move to a quantitative easing would bolster psychology."
"I think the China situation with the currency is very important…If there's significant currency weakness, that will mean more imported deflation [to the U.S.]. And it'll make things more difficult."
He believes the dollar will be strong temporarily because of a short squeeze. "Emerging countries owe dollars. So they have to buy dollars…. Once that squeeze is over, it undermines the dollar longer term."

James Gorman, CEO at Morgan Stanley, is perplexed: ”It's not a perfect picture…And there is some excessive valuations in the market — no question. But is this the cause of the kind of correction we've seen?"
“Gorman said he follows about 70 stocks closely, including energy, financials, housing, and media stocks, and every one was down "precipitously" in the past three weeks. "What happened? …What was the trigger point here? I'm just not seeing it ... You can imagine a correction off the highs. I'm not seeing this kind of violence."

Scott Minerd, CIO at Guggenheim Partners ($240 billion AUM) thinks the market “…could drop another 10% to around 1650 to 1700. That drop … would represent a buying opportunity…. this is not 2008 or 2009.”
“Wholesale panic” is what’s needed before the market turns… “

William White, former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements [BIS]: “Debts have continued to build up over the last eight years and they have reached such levels in every part of the world that they have become a potent cause for mischief… It will become obvious in the next recession that many of these debts will never be serviced or repaid, and this will be uncomfortable for a lot of people who think they own assets that are worth something.”

ELSEWHERE:
Lloyd Blankfein, the one who is “doing God’s work” over at GS, made $23 million in 2015 — down $1 million from the year before. Blankfein's compensation included $2 million in base salary and $6.3 million in cash bonus….
“He [also?] received $14.7 million in equity, according to an SEC filing. That excludes a long-term incentive plan that will be reported later this year.”
Blankfein officially became a billionaire in July, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

JPM announced that CEO Jamie Dimon's 2015 total compensation was $27 million, a 35% raise from the year before. Dimon also became a billionaire in 2015.

[DellGriffith]

[DellGriffith]

I expect a bullish MACD cross on daily SPY next week which will be another buy signal. If we get that, odds highly favor a straight shot to the upper bollinger band. Currently that thing is up around 211 but it will start falling.

[johnnywa]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows distribution up and accumulation just starts to go up, so probably no bottom yet.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

What green line

[johnnywa]

I expect a bullish MACD cross on daily SPY next week which will be another buy signal. If we get that, odds highly favor a straight shot to the upper bollinger band. Currently that thing is up around 211 but it will start falling.

So your saying run up to 205 range

[johnnywa]

Smart money buying a lot so according to the case 2.), this is a good sign. However, the buying still is not huge enough (I prefer it touching or at least near the green line above) so probably still some room on the downside.
Oops see it now


How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[fehro]

Weekly / Dailies Candles - looking strong on both accounts, hammer the weekly *off support of sorts, bullish daily.

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm & Jan 1 weekend, explaining indicators roughly viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1903&start=20#p210500

Few Indicators trying to claw back to the buy side. As per last weekend Put/Call ratio spiked to extreme highs contrarian indicator indicating possible bounce is near.

[fehro]

Yields

[rhight]

Hello all. What a week with all the gaps! For all my efforts to go long, I'm basically flat for the week and in cash. I would have been long Friday, but I read a blog post by Arthur Hill (Understanding Bear Market Bounces, Patterns, Signals and Retracements) at Stockcharts on Thursday night that threw me off my game. One thing he said is, "In any case, I am not really interested in playing the counter-trend bounces." That is exactly what I'm trying to do!

[DellGriffith]

I expect a bullish MACD cross on daily SPY next week which will be another buy signal. If we get that, odds highly favor a straight shot to the upper bollinger band. Currently that thing is up around 211 but it will start falling.

So your saying run up to 205 range

If we get the bullish MACD cross on daily SPY next week, odds are great. I think SPY 200 at least. Without that cross its more iffy.

[superxy]

What is the ticker in stockcharts for putcall ratio?

[DellGriffith]

What is the ticker in stockcharts for putcall ratio?

There are many.

A search for put/call brings up a list:



NOTE: CBOE also does an ETF put/call ratio (started in 2006) which isn't on stockcharts.

$CPCE - only uses individual stocks
$CPCI - only uses indexes
$CPC - combines both

Then there are 12 more charts on stockcharts that are custom-made. Users can create and publish their own symbols. These are designated by starting with "!"
Example: !CALLVEQU (a user made one that just measures call volume)