uempel wrote:josephli, I don't have any opinion. I just notice that SPX is following the January 2008 pattern quite closely. I have no idea what's going to happen to the world economy. Thats's for guys like Mohamed A. El-Erian to evaluate. I'm more interested in TA. And the only TA analyst whom I really respect (besides Cobra ) is Louise Yamada ...
josephli wrote:
uempel wrote:A 10 percent rally like in 2008 would put SPX at 1992 ...
uempel wrote:January 2016 is following January 2008 very closely. Check the bounces off the lower edge of the green BB 13/1 For the rest of the year: are the algos programed for 2008
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fundamentally I believe it is more like 1998 since it is more like currency issue as several emerging market currency de-peg from USD. meanwhile, some analyst have more or less the same with your view:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... e-subprime. maybe combination of two.
Boss, while I see the similarities, market most often won't simply repeat itself. there will be some variation, so market most likely won't follow the same pattern BOTH price-wise AND time-wise.
The longer this holds above ES 1884, the faster and bigger the afternoon rally potential based on this build up.
Price stalling here just means the hourly moving averages consolidate and inch higher to support this bull train and use them as tracks
The day session only chart shows a gap and go formation here with the swing target being the daily 20EMA currently at 1927 from last night's KISS report.
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To add: if falls below 1884 and has a continuation below 1880 then I would think this bull needs more time to retest support and it's probably a shakefest again.
The MOST ideal bull case is to hold 1884 at all times today. In other words, the ideal bull case is how a textbook go and go days come about. Gap up, go higher, stall for 3-4 hours, up more in the afternoon. Bull train that leaves no passengers behind
Josephli, I think you are in the wrong forum. Honestly.
This forum is about TA. All we do here is to look for significant patterns in the past which might have a parallelism to the present. Then we extrapolate the old patterns into today's market action. We believe in repetitions. Do you understand? Sometimes our assumptions are dead wrong, sometimes they are correct. We try to be correct. That's how we make money.
You've been here for some time. Do you know that this is a TA forum
josephli wrote:
uempel wrote:josephli, I don't have any opinion. I just notice that SPX is following the January 2008 pattern quite closely. I have no idea what's going to happen to the world economy. Thats's for guys like Mohamed A. El-Erian to evaluate. I'm more interested in TA. And the only TA analyst whom I really respect (besides Cobra ) is Louise Yamada ...
josephli wrote:
Boss, while I see the similarities, market most often won't simply repeat itself. there will be some variation, so market most likely won't follow the same pattern BOTH price-wise AND time-wise.
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