02/27/2016 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution, both accumulation and distribution are down, so it's trending (up) phase.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money may start to sell, so now it's time to watch top, i.e. if the market keeps going up while smart money selling hard, then it's a top.



How I use the chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Al_Dente]

ROTATION
Percent-change dating back to 7/20/15, the SPY high

[jason_70]

Every index in the world has "hot pockets" on both sides. Either we rally higher or crash. There cannot be another game in town. Pick your side and play safe

[jason_70]

We are into 7th month without a week of "New 52 week highs" on NYSE > 70. Only two other times this happened was 2000 April and 2008/09.

[pezhead9000]

WSJ TSM Block Data + SnP500 Tick Data + NYSE Cumulative volume all showing positive trends

[fehro]

Weekly and Daily candles + bonus Monthly. Dailies inverted hammers of sorts.. a tad bearish, weeklies looking not bad.. it's the bonus monthlies that are the most curious… one day to go.. and totally on the fence depending on Monday's close.. bulls desperate for a hammer, but under testing resistance.. looks very precarious on the monthly time frame.
GLD monthly looks like a breakout, TLT trying to hold on, DXY looks like a bullish ascending wedge on the weekly.. but that monthly.. looks week.
Oil Monthly.. hammer.

[fehro]

Indutry % weeklies… mixed bag. Volume up on Friday on the SPY 2nd highest day of the week

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm
Big jump in the stocks over the 40d ma, new high lows struggles... into overbought territory on Zwieg and kinda McClellan. Put/Call in the middle of the road

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

IRX 13- week Treasury still multi year highs, near fall 2008 levels.

[Trades with cats]

Shanghai, So far what I have read is not good. Supposedly the draft statement was a throw away with China promising to not devalue without saying something and everyone promising to have governments spend more money. Yeah, live long and prosper. The killer for me was that the IMF went there with a proposal to have the US lend lots of money to places like Brazil.

The one thing that I saw that I really liked was the group photo. The frowning concerned look on Janet's face gave me hope that at least she gets it. The rest of them all smiling at Obama's lunch buddy (Lagard of the IMF) without a care in the world I thought was in-appropriate given world conditions and their inability to reach any sort of concrete action plan.

But who knows maybe the Asian markets will be up big at the open tonight because there was no formal disclosed plan to devalue their money by 30% as the economic press was calling for. Certainly the Chinese propaganda machine has been in high gear this week with the report that deficits could be increased because the debt level is not out of control. We have seen what the January surge in lending has done for raw material pricing. It sort of reminds me of when people have been slowly dying then they suddenly rally for a brief period of time just before they pass away. And of course I am referring to the US and Canadian oil producers.

[TraderJoe]

Arab States Face $94 Billion Debt Crunch on Oil Slump, HSBC Says

Gulf Cooperation Council countries may struggle to refinance $94 billion of debt in the next two years as the region faces slowing growth, rising rates and rating downgrades, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Oil-rich GCC states have to refinance $52 billion of bonds and $42 billion of syndicated loans, mostly in the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, HSBC said in an e-mailed report. The countries also face a fiscal and current account deficit of $395 billion over the period, it said.

Expectations that these funding gaps "will be part financed through the sale of sovereign U.S. dollar debt will complicate efforts to refinance existing paper that matures over 2016 and 2017," Simon Williams, HSBC’s chief economist for the Middle East, said in the report. "With the Gulf acting as a single credit market, the refinancing challenge will likely be much more broadly felt" and "compounded by tightening regional liquidity, rising rates and recent downgrades," he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -oil-slump

[BullBear52x]

There's two ways to trade short term in coming week, a complicate way or the easy way, pick one

[uempel]

Very, very hypothetical:

[Tutti]

20 year chart, only twice did we have the 12 month sma and 18 month MMA produce a negative PPO signal. Right now it's ~ +0.8 but the negative slope certainly looks like we are headed for a third sub zero reading...

20YrSpreadSPX_28FEB16.tiff (144.76 KiB) Viewed 3717 times

[pezhead9000]

Perspective: Stock prices to Corporate profits