05/18/2016 Live Update

[fehro]

As Zerohedge reposted from others going long oil is betting that the Niger River Avengers will keep the pipelines stopped.

Like the "Doha" meeting.. going short? with nobody cutting off supply.. that didn't work out well..

FOMC fireworks "could" push the USdollar up, "could" pressure oil.

[BullBear52x]

A LL this time will take us to new LOD. 36.25 so...LL is last stand for intraday bulls.

[Trades with cats]

Here they are (Niger River Avengers)

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:08 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/05 ... ay-update/

[BullBear52x]

How's everyone?

Looks like micro intraday action is just grinding flatfest until 2PM fed minutes for a minor timing catalyst

Currently, see a micro 5m double top that bears need to break below 2044.5 to gain some momentum for 2037~ 100% measure move.

(I'm an intermediate bear as long as ES remains below 2060, thinking 2020 and 2000 very soon on daily chart)

Welcome back to Hotel California, this is best free forum on the internet you know it

[Trades with cats]

Just saying these are the guys that are cutting world oil supply at the margin. Also it is time for the spring high, happens every year. US inventories are higher than ever for this time of year. Gasoline demand is also higher than ever which I admit I do not understand verses what retailers, including Target are saying. Magic power of round numbers may do the trick and get retail specs to flood into the market. Very similar to sheep being herded into a pen. The big money has been taking profits and are no longer net long, they are net flat. Most shale operators have said they are ready to drill at $50 and I think it would be wise to trust them on that. I also trust Goldman on their price bands, but they are just confirming what the shale guys have said, above 50 new supply comes on line. None of this affects a day trade, just the longer term direction.

[Out of Bounds]

Have to run for a bit -
order to sell at 2055

[K447]

How's everyone?
...

Always nice to see you post.

How is that pay-for online gig working out for you?

[brokebybernacke2]

Janet is pushing up market before rate hike bomb drop.

the news dialogue.. after they say hike is a good possibility in June and the market goes up… "It's already priced in"

u bet, yesterday was just a test of the EBS (emergency bullsh8*& system) no way they hike in June, rate hikes come after July 1 at the very earliest if at all, they must get by all the geopolitical bs coming in early summer. Yellen no speak until June 6 fyi....

G7 this weekend? possible surprises?

full moon this saturday

[QED]

Apparently the 61.8 fib level or 2050 to 2052 range in the ES was what Janet told Citadel. To me the big deal was they couldn't do this until today as yesterday's effort failed.

Option Open Interest for OPEX Friday: Looking for a MaxPain Pin?
SPY: Calls = ~170K @ 205; Puts = ~225K @ 205
SPX: Calls = ~42K @ 2050; Puts = ~52K @ 2050

[BullBear52x]

hit the music.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SbUC-UaAxE

[fehro]

TLT weak.. < 50d testing 20d at LOD

[Unique]

ES: intraday bears at risk here with the 5m/15m bull pennant/ascending triangle formation now if breaks 2052.
Consecutive higher lows on 5m trendline. Really just a flatfest before 2PM it seems..

[Cobra]

possible ascending triangle is in the making so bias is up.

[Trades with cats]

Option Open Interest for OPEX Friday: Looking for a Pin?
SPY: Calls = ~170K @ 205; Puts = ~225K @ 205
SPX: Calls = ~42K @ 2050; Puts = ~52K @ 2050

Well that would certainly get the big boys helping out Citadel. But it was a heavy load, they broke the market twice this morning doing those vertical spikes and the printed rumor was Citadel.

[fehro]

XLF is pretty excited for the FOMC

[BullBear52x]

I am out at 50 will trade on a breakout on either side.

[Cobra]

ascending triangle text book target.

[fehro]

SPX 50d.. VIX cracks.. look for a fast trip up to SPX 20d contrary to what everyone believes.. 2069
my guess.. is Oil will get hammered as the dollar explodes up with the banks.. and money will leave oil, gold and rush into techs.. my very wild guess IF the FOMC raise rates…. all for just a trade.. nothing long term

[BullBear52x]

count me in on the next dip buying. waiting.......