07/12/2016 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

[Trades with cats]

Looks like bulls have seen where the line is and are starting to fight back.

[Al_Dente]

[BullBear52x]

/ES 39 or cash SPX at 50% is good retracement to buy again, see TSI as a support on bullish cross.

[BullBear52x]

bulls are weaker than I expected.

[fehro]

SPX .. VIX testing 3 week resistance downtrend. SPX 2150 green channel holds.. so far

[BullBear52x]

39 is failed to hold, sell at 39.

[BullBear52x]

bull trap.

[uempel]

Looking at WLSH and trying to understand what's going on

[Mr. BachNut]

Mr. BachNut checking in

The NYMO Cycle is up.
We are on the 3rd push up and have entered the turn zone.

NYMO typically turns before price. Though a consolidation or pullback of some sort is common at the NYMO turn.
After the last two trips into the turn zone, price went considerably higher while NYMO built up huge divergences.
In the first case (October 2015), the divergence set up a series of declines into January 2016.
In the second case (February/March 2016), the divergence was completely ignored, and the bull train kept on rolling.
Interestingly though, the Brexit plunge took price down to tag the March 3 NYMO high benchmark price.
Perhaps it was just coincidence, but I did view it as a piece of unfinished business.

I have added a redline at about 1993.50 to the chart. It seems to be important having a number of hits both in terms of price and times of NYMO peaks and valleys.

Two of my up targets got tagged last week.
I only have one left at the rising Keltner upper band.
The upper Keltner has not been tagged since July 2014. So, a tag here could clarify a new bull phase to the market.
Absence of a tag not so much...

The down targets are starting to pile up, and asymmetry is arguably to the downside.

So, I'll be looking for a NYMO turn and divergences to set in for the days ahead.
Given how long price has back and filled below last year's high, these new all time highs could be the start of a big bull leg.
The Bank of Japan wants to help...
This could also be a fakeout. Watch for topping patterns and signs.
I have a personal belief that volatility is not over, that big swings will continue and that big NYMO divergences eventually get settled.
So, I'll keep an open mind both ways.

I had some long on last week. Flat now.
Guessing my next trade will be short probably next week, but I don't know.

[sleeman]

short 40.5

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks are 2.8 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume is 4.8 x declining volume
Volume is picking up

[BullBear52x]

watch it will get crab out right here.

[fehro]

SPX holding.. and so is VIX

[Al_Dente]

“An Extremely Quick Move From A 50-Day Low To A 50-Day High”
“Remarkable about Friday’s 50-day high close is that it came just 8 trading days after SPX closed at a 50-day low. That’s quite rare to see. The study below … looks at all the instances since 1950 of a move from a 50-day closing low to a 50-day closing high that have occurred within 2 weeks.“
[Rob Hanna, posted yesterday]

[JFR]

Overnight gap up. Riding the EMA 10.20.

[JFR]

From IBD ...

PAUL WHITFIELD

U.S. stocks rolled Tuesday morning, with the Dow Jones industrial average hitting a record high, although bulls and bears each found news to boost their convictions.

The Dow industrials rose to 18353 soon after the opening bell, just eclipsing its May 2015 peak. The blue-chip index has settled to a 0.35% gain at 18291. The S&P 500, which set a record mark Monday, advanced 0.4% intraday. So did the the Nasdaq Composite. The small-cap Russell 2000 led with a 0.7% gain. Early volume was running sharply higher vs. Monday's levels.

BlackRock analysts offered a gloomy perspective. Reuters reported that the world's largest asset manager sees Britain falling into a recession over the coming year. On June 23, Britain voted to leave the European union.

However, back in the States, a small-business gauge signaled optimism on the U.S. economy. The National Federation of Independent Business' small-business optimism index for June ticked up to 94.5, topping Wall Street's consensus number, as well as the highest estimate in the range. The survey includes hiring plans, capital outlay plans, plans to increase or decrease inventories, views on the overall economy and profit trends. The gauge is considered important because small businesses create most new jobs.

[JFR]

DOW 30.

DD, GS, NKE and CAT leading the way in a sea of green.

[Al_Dente]

IWM
HOD

[Al_Dente]

for the PM question
The ALERTS link. From stockcharts
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/alertsummary.html