07/27/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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ascending triangle, breakout is more likely.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/07 ... ay-update/

[Zane]

Cobra, not a small H&S pattern on the futures chart?

[fehro]

SPX opening flat ish 2174 mind the morning gap. Still in-between major trends. Mind Monday's agp 2174-75, and 2155-52 to the downside. VIX bullish falling wedge.. still holding up well.

[fehro]

SPX gap fill, VIX holding up..

[Al_Dente]

COBRA:
please check your "vote" box here
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

the gold vote box is gone and i am unable to vote for you (second day)
maybe just me?

[fehro]

SPX dabble short

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:03 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/07 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

morning hourly black bar.

[fehro]

INDEX days.. TRANsports Dj-20 weak red and TLT a tad green

[Trades with cats]

Great analysis of oil market bu Mark Constantine on twitter
Crude inventories fall → oil prices jump → cash-strapped producers ramp production → crude inventories rise → oil prices drop → repeat ♻.

[Al_Dente]

5 day %, the heaviest weighted stocks in SPY
(AAPL printed a bullish-island gap on the daily
MSFT printed one a few days back
That’s now the drop-dead-stop on both)

[fehro]

SPX dabble short

mind the VIX breakout out of the wedge.. should it pop. SPX support near here.. 2163 goes.. looking for 2155-52 gap fill

[fehro]

/CL 50w SMA 41.43 coming up.. only 0.60 lower W/D/60m

[fehro]

SPX .. yellow lower triangle level key.. "should" it break. 60m bottom left

[Cobra]

don't know direction, the market simply down one day, up one day, going nowhere, so hard to know which up or down is for real eventually

[finman66]

QQQ p-bar at $114.65 from December 9 tagged this morning

Only remaining open upside p-bar is at $115.17 from Dec. 7

[fehro]

buckle up.. 3rd time a charm?

[Trades with cats]

Black Gold- Like the man said, 'how many times do I have to hit your head with a 2x4 before you get it?'. All from popular media- Monday, Genscape the private inventory company said a build in Cushing, Tuesday the member only API said build in Cushing, today the DOE (EIA) said build in Cushing. So today a "surprise sell off".

This seems to be a pretty good version of the current media narrative complete with charts.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-0 ... -oil-lower
My summary is
1. PADD 1 reporting region flooded with gasoline and diesel because US refiners went flat out this spring, europeans are flooding the US market with their overproduction as Asian refiners, especially CHina export a new record level of production which is being called dumping.
2. Market blow up is just around the corner as we run out of storage for products in the US and in Asia. US refiners will stop summer blend early and shut down for extended maintenance just as China finishes filling SPR throwing yet another million barrels a day into the market causing world wide crude storage to fill at which time unhedged producers will be pricing at the margin (lifting and transport costs) to bring in the most marginal of buyers.

What they haven't said is that US Shale producers (undoubtedly with recent memory and helpful advice from their bankers) have sold over a third of their future production already so we shouldn't see massive levels of instant bankruptcy. Other narratives have pointed out that the S&P materials sector is holding up better than it should, so shorting an industry ETF could make sense, especially as CL gets those amazing spikes. Finally when things bottom Wall Street Journal says T.Rowe Price Natural Resources fund is run buy a guy who is very bearish on commodities so he has been investing in solid, low debt survivors.

[Al_Dente]

Sectors year-to-date %