08/13/2016 Weekend Update

[Trades with cats]

Oil So this week the news feed was that the Saudis will talk at the end of September, but no actions except to pump even more. The Mexican's have a very successful and very massive hedging program. They are acting like the top is in for the year. If the Saudi's do cut production and jam prices up the US Shale industry is ready. That is a lot of oil just waiting for the right price.

[BullBear52x]

From it is what it is department:
the board perma-bulls (yes, you know who you are) are in agreement with the bears that a relief pull back is needed, this is not good, when was last time everyone make money when both sides are in agreement all together? (reminded me of Washington when both sides agreed some one is about to get taken from behind)

be fearful in the coming week.

[BullBear52x]

Short term, FAS and IYT are the weakest link, IWM is very slippery as well, will talk more on IYT on next post.

[BullBear52x]

Bubble view, everything is as bullish as it can be but Transportation, DOW theorist will go Hmm...... Now for me the show me the money type, if market is really really really to keep on going, Transportation is under value BIGLY BIG-LY I will pay attention to this under value to the peer sectors in the big way ( cheapest air fare in a long long long time round trip to China 600$ anyone?)

IYT having a hard time here.

Short term in a coming week a trade above 5 dma will tells me that green shoot is healthy.

[Al_Dente]

“Risk Ratios” are all green since early July.
When the market starts down, these will too, and then we’ll know it’s bear.
Yes, some should be much higher. Yes, we are overbought, with momentum showing a negative divergence.
Yes, pullback is “due.”
Until then… green baby green…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4ZxxHbJGbY

“BE PATIENT”
“…my inner trader is cautiously bullish and not all-in as there may be some near-term choppiness ahead.”
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogsp ... ign=buffer

[pezhead9000]

Breadth
WSJ TSM Block Money Flow : Bullish trend
NYSE Cumulative AD line : Bullish trend
NYSE Cumulative Volume : Bullish trend

Market Analysis
"Market Analysis: earnings season has been better than expected. According to Zacks, with most of the S&P 500 companies reporting, revenues are down a paltry .2%; ex-energy, that number increases to 2.4%. This is a very important fact. With a high PE, the market needs growing revenues to eventually increase earnings, which would allow prices to rise commensurately with earnings growth. Factset.com reports similar numbers: according to their data, total revenue was also down slightly (-.2%) but 5 of 10 sectors are growing (health care, consumer staples, consumer discretionary, telecom and financials). That’s the good news.

The bad news focuses on technical indicators. According to Factset, the S&Ps forward PE is 17.1, which is higher than the 5 and 10-year average. And the percentage of S&P 500 and NASDAQ stocks above their respective 50 and 200 day moving averages is high. And despite a series of new highs, the markets are up only marginally, with the large caps up slightly and the small caps down slightly. This places the hoopla about new highs in a more conservative light.



In reality, little has actually changed. The market is expensive, needing rising revenues to grow. This earnings season, we did see a slight uptick in gross income, which has allowed the market to move slightly higher. But the rise is slight, which is in line with the moderate revenue increase."
http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market- ... on-edition

Econ:
"Consumer spending as measured by Gallup and Goldman Sachs are positive, while Johnson Redbook is a neutral. Temp staffing is neutral. Steel, shipping, and bank rates remain negative. Rail, which had improved just enough to be neutral last week, slipped back to a negative this week."
http://community.xe.com/blog/xe-market- ... ve-edition

[BullBear52x]

“Risk Ratios” are all green since early July.
When the market starts down, these will too, and then we’ll know it’s bear.
Yes, some should be much higher. Yes, we are overbought, with momentum showing a negative divergence.
Yes, pullback is “due.”
Until then… green baby green…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z4ZxxHbJGbY

814risk ratios.png

“BE PATIENT”
“…my inner trader is cautiously bullish and not all-in as there may be some near-term choppiness ahead.”
http://humblestudentofthemarkets.blogsp ... ign=buffer

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlxozJh2JNo this is getting good.

[fehro]

Weekly & Daily Candles. Dailies doji.. indecision, Weeklies.. "could" be toppy if next week is red.
RUT/DJ-20 Transports red. NDX was the strongest.. and GOLD - GLD plain ugly. gravestone weekly. TLT "could" be flagging… but near multi year trend again.

[fehro]

P&F Long long term

[fehro]

Industry % Weekly.. go department stores + 11.90% for the week. yet Trucking was weak Ah the beauty of on-line sales

[fehro]

T2 http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm

Weakness continues.. some swing buy just about to roll over to the sell side. Put/Call nears extreme levels.

[fehro]

T2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels ><200d Weekly ><40d Daily
Minor divergence still as we make new ATH.

[fehro]

Yields

[fehro]

Yields v2.0

ZN1! / SPX (10yr T-note/SPX) W/D
ZB1! / SPX (30y T-bond/SPX) W/D

[Al_Dente]

bla bla bla ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlxozJh2JNo this is getting good.

good one

The OY report:
YTD year-to-date, all asset class performance
Best:
Gold miners (bottom panel, gold)
Spot gold (top panel, gold)
WTIC oil gray
U.S. Treasurys red
Emerging markets pink

[gappy]

Carry trade start..5 minute.

Cap.PNG

Strong yen only to be countered. The recent modess operandi. The risk on/risk off to SPX correlation is history now, erased like honest p/e's, volatility, commodity value and derivative danger levels have been shown the door. Yield seekers are content the empire and all nation/states will never allow another Lehman cascade. Italian banks/DB are proof of that. Their Tier III Capital is already ashes. A 3 or 4% dip to buy could occur should energy related debt flare up again, but the 8 to 10% move needed to light dry powder may keep me out of market until the hegemony resorts to the black swan moment desperate to maintain power.

Capture.PNG

Vote Cobra, glta.