02/13/2017 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

In case someone missed this run up on GLD and SLV

new buy on GLD setup, SLV will have to chase it up

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks = 1.5 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 2.1 x declining volume
(both were near 3x at the open)

[Mr. BachNut]

Quick Mr. B checkin as interesting things are afoot.

1) NYMO up cycle confirmed Friday. Low was set January 19 with SPX benchmark price 2258.41.
This was a model failure as down cycle did not take price below prior benchmark at SPX 2251.69.
This cycle has been sloggy and not timely or helpful technically... and yes, it could end at any time.

2) I have no more up targets. Price is above the upper keltner, and there is only blue sky above.
I understand there exist some harmonic and fib targets around 2325-2330, but basically SPX index is about to leave earth's orbit.

3) We gapped up again this morning. At the risk of making a prediction, which is unwise as I haven't got a clue,
ALL GAPS ABOVE THE UPPER KELTNER ARE CLOSED EVENTUALLY. Usually within a few days, but it can take weeks.

4) This is not statistically valid, but it is interesting to note what happened after the last NYMO model failure (3/3/16 - 4/7/16) when price rose through a down cycle.
In late June that year, price took a dump during an up cycle to go tag the benchmark at SPX 1993.69 (marked with mustard color line).
I am thus inclined to leave the latest failed benchmark on the chart at SPX 2251.69 as a piece of technical unfinished business.

[Trades with cats]

I have been following Coolbi for several years before he moved to twitter. https://twitter.com/coolbizone He usually trades 20 or contracts at a time. He is active in ES, Gold futures, treasuries and individual stocks. He uses Elliot Wave, Gartley patters and some price action reading skills. He posts his losses as well as his wins.
This is from Jan 31

[Al_Dente]

In case someone missed this run up on GLD and SLV
new buy on GLD setup, SLV will have to chase it up

ON A RELATED NOTE:
Gap and breakout high on copper miners on Friday (not on this chart), so I added JJC to my “Some Percentages Since Election Day” chart
See bottom panel, orange
Boom
Copper miners were up 18.07% since the election (as of Friday). Today another gap and higher
(JJC Copper miners correlate 99% with $COPPER).

[Mr. BachNut]

Coolbizone who reads waves is calling for a 25 to 45 point pullback from here in the ES over the next couple of days.

Twc, based on what indicators/parameters has Coolbizone (who doesn't mean anything to me) come to that conclusion? Thanks for more info.

Coolbizone is an elliott waver. So, a lot of fib relationships.
I watched him for awhile and was really impressed with his trading.
He is extremely good at changing his mind quickly as the price action develops.
That makes his calls a bit tricky, because he makes them with complete conviction but may change his count overnight and go the other way.
So, he is a good data point but hold his call loosely.

[BullBear52x]

In case someone missed this run up on GLD and SLV
new buy on GLD setup, SLV will have to chase it up

ON A RELATED NOTE:
Gap and breakout high on copper miners on Friday (not on this chart), so I added JJC to my “Some Percentages Since Election Day” chart
See bottom panel, orange
Boom
Copper miners were up 18.07% since the election (as of Friday). Today another gap and higher
(JJC Copper miners correlate 99% with $COPPER).

213percent.png.png

agreed, industrial metals are more attractive then precious metals. I added JJC to my watch list. Thanks.

[uempel]

Thanks Warren

[BullBear52x]

Coolbizone who reads waves is calling for a 25 to 45 point pullback from here in the ES over the next couple of days.

Twc, based on what indicators/parameters has Coolbizone (who doesn't mean anything to me) come to that conclusion? Thanks for more info.

Coolbizone is an elliott waver. So, a lot of fib relationships.
I watched him for awhile and was really impressed with his trading.
He is extremely good at changing his mind quickly as the price action develops.
That makes his calls a bit tricky, because he makes them with complete conviction but may change his count overnight and go the other way.
So, he is a good data point but hold his call loosely.

Absolute Price prediction will fail, Humen are bad in prediction and Modeling any thing. but if ones can see the exit/stop to minimize lost before an entry, I called that clear mind trader.

[uempel]

BachNut, thanks for your assessment of Coolbizone. Your appraisal is so well written and precise that I conclude you must have worked in HR or management at an earlier time

[hunterman]

Hello all, been a while since going all in but move today all in on TLT....after 3 black crows on weekly, combined w other news due this week I expect a pop to realign for a quick couple points...we shall see...I love all the work being presented by Umpeil, bach and of course BB Fehro and snake...keep em coming and glta...what ever happened to OOB and Miyagi? Miss their commentary...

[Al_Dente]

February Expiration Week stats from Almanac
Spoiler alert: Today is bull biased; Friday not so much, but overall the week has a bull bias
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/15706 ... of-last-11

[BullBear52x]

Bears wishful thinking, need to see next dip buying failed. or another waiting game to continue.

[Mr. BachNut]

BachNut, thanks for your assessment of Coolbizone. Your appraisal is so well written and precise that I conclude you must have worked in HR or management at an earlier time

Yep.

I feel like I have been outted...

[BullBear52x]

Bear got stop out again. Oy....

[BullBear52x]

This much I know now,

[BullBear52x]

This is the most hated chart pattern for me. I am going for a walk.

[Junior Buffett]

DOW is now 20,400...next could be 20700...not today..you have to wait till tomorrow!

[BullBear52x]

I can not quit today, I will sell the next weakness. /ES <22.5 something like this on SPX. Vix is not with the bull today.

[uempel]

RSI on SPX 120 min soothes bearish nerves. Most likely there will be some form of correction in February. This week? Next week? Difficult to imagine at the moment