02/05/2019 Live Update

[Cobra]

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no idea up or down from here so in this case always give bulls a little more credit.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/02 ... ay-update/

[JFR]

Moving up the last few days. Sustainable?

[JFR]

Overnight gap up on ES, NQ and YM. Smaller gap on IWM.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2019/02 ... ay-update/

[Trades with cats]

Overnight gap up pretty unusual if you look at the futures charts. London/Frankfurt cash open was 100% of the surge then it flat lined four four hours in a tight range waiting for the US cash open.

Comment from FT 71, odds of two trend days in a row are 21%.

[te_fern]

Not much has happened since the open....

[Trades with cats]

Economic news today has been negative. Oil crashing. Treasury bonds moving as well. So since once again bad news is good, buy stocks.

[Trades with cats]

Made the first check point, ES 2735. Forecast is 2737 then a struggle to get any higher.

[Cobra]

should be a pullback in the next couple of bars otherwise it'd be an uptrend day which I'd find hard to believe.

[Trades with cats]

Staying in the upper half of the channel. Derivative Oscillator (red, yellow green box 2) not happy with the action. Closing in on 2737 the most commonly traded price in 2018.

[Trades with cats]

Checked my notes, I am off, it is 2735 for 2018 miss popularity crown. 2737 was estimated high for the day.

[Trades with cats]

Another piece that supports the greatest sucker rally of the last three cycles theory.

[fehro]

today tomorrow is the day… SPX at 50w/200d 2729/2741… same levels in 2001/2007 bounce levels.. short here and go on a 18month holiday

[Cobra]

typical, the pullback, so it's a range day.

[Trades with cats]

Another view of the same thing (prior sucker rally's) from Greg the Analyst on twitter last week.

Trying to be realistic, if the PBoC and others continue to inject gobs of liquidity then all these charts are meaningless. So this is all predicated on the big injections were for lunar new year and they will soon slow down.

[Mr. BachNut]

The strongest NYMO cycle ever?
I looked back and could not find a time when NYMO has stayed this high this long.
A few weeks ago, I laid out possible scenarios given historical analogs with very strong NYMO reads.
The most bullish of those scenarios suggested recapture of the 200 day MA without a retest of the December low.
The 200 day MA is just a few handles away at this point. It stands to reason, this may present some resistance, but I expect a reconnect.
Those bullish analogs further suggest we are on our way to all time highs in due course.

As the strength of this thrust is unprecedented NYMO-wise, I am inclined to keep an open mind about what lies ahead.
The bulls may need to catch their breath or take a punch or two at some point before marching to ATHs.
A trip to the January low is plausible but seems very low odds at this point without some nasty event.
More plausible is a dream I am starting to have about the SPX putting in a high between the 200 MA and SPX 2815 and then oscillating for a month or so to form an absolutely massive inverse head and shoulders.
It is a beautiful dream... but I don't know what will happen.

I reloaded long coming out of last week's FOMC. No plans to do anything except tighten stops until further notice.

[JFR]

The bulls are prevailing. Hope lives. Pullback to the 20.

Beware the economy. Heck, even Brexit across the pond might not stall the market.

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[Trades with cats]

Central bank liquidity injections trump valuations and earnings.
But the bond market, now that is something to be concerned about. It is saying the central bankers are going to have to scramble to keep up, just like the last crisis. So multiple rate cuts ahead and future talk from the fed on getting past the zero bound.

[te_fern]

Fell out of the bottom of the channel. Need a little more of a pull back to trigger any of my buy signals....