09/23/2011 Intraday Watering

[laoguo]

Cobra, what is the 3-push up target for IWM?
It seems two pushes are done already on a 5-min chart.
Thank you for this great forum, I learned a lot from experts here.

[Copeland]

@ES on the 5 min now forming a likely cup and handle, with downside limited to 1120-1122.

May form a wedge between 1120-1135 before a big break -- Monday?

[Cobra]

a little bit bigger picture, so far it looks like a Bear Flag. It's rare as I've been saying, the selling we had is just one legged, very rare.

[xfradnex]

Made money back on MOS, but it is bouncing around.

I have a revisit chart for DOW. The probability of going up 40 to 45 for the day is 3x lower than any value between 50 and 130 for the day, but we have been holding below 45. Not much conviction today to get into the easy OH zone.

[Cobra]

Cobra, what is the 3-push up target for IWM?
It seems two pushes are done already on a 5-min chart.
Thank you for this great forum, I learned a lot from experts here.

today's high first then yesterday's high?

[Copeland]

Market movers:

1. Margin call selling
2. Federal government shut down
3. European fears over the weekend. French bank nationalization?
4. Bottom pickers / algo / TOMO support?

[fehro]

maybe, just maybe.. a bigger invs H&S... target sounds crazy.. but there it is, if it plays out

[laoguo]

Cobra, what is the 3-push up target for IWM?
It seems two pushes are done already on a 5-min chart.
Thank you for this great forum, I learned a lot from experts here.

today's high first then yesterday's high?

I am shaky holding some IWM, and then your wedge shows up.

[laoguo]

I have visited some other stock forums; seems a lot of people are buying dip. This is BAD.

[Cobra]

by the way a lethal combination here: FXA is bearish 1-2-3 formation breakdown whiel FXY is Ascending Triangle so about to breakout. this means AUDJPY will keep going down.

[Michelle]

This is interesting. Go to stock charts. Type in $NYAD, and click weekly. Go to Chart Attributes, then Type, and click on Cumulative, then update. This has been above the 50 day since April 2009. Look where it is now.

[BullBear52x]

Bulls stand on one leg, but it's leg nevertheless

[Cobra]

nothing to say, so far my bullish bias was (is) correct. but the rebound is mostly overlapping so not a strong rebound. could be just a wedge (aka 3 push up).

[Tabby]

RUT
Bounce may be limited if this is just a back test.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/rut_23.html

thanks for heads up.

[lqiantobe]

I do remeber overlapping rebound means going down later?

[Mr. BachNut]

Have not repositioned covered short from yesterday yet. Just watching.
Speculation: there may be some buy stops just above yesterday's high. That could make for a nice little bump above SPY 114. Just a guess. May not see it today.
Watching: there is a declining tops line from Tuesday that could over some resistance and come into play a bit later. I have it at SPY 116 now but should be in the 115s later.

Agree with comments that Monday could be a mover up or down. If I end up holding short over the weekend, I will rationalize as follows:
1) Bear Market rules in effect - resolutions more likely down than up.
2) The Low (per all Cobra's arguements etc.) is not in. If Monday up, than hold trapped short until Low comes in or Mind changes (preferably the former ).

[Michelle]

Bulls stand on one leg, but it's leg nevertheless

Hi BB52, on the fib fan, where do you have the left line connecting? It works pretty well when it connects from a low to a peak.

[cov_lite]

My first post. I'm a credit guy not an equity guy but have enjoyed reading all your posts the past few weeks.

Not sure if this tidbit is news to y'all but....chatter amongst bond desks is that French banks may receive some ECB support soon.

[SB73]

An ABC move with A going from 1114.22 to 1133.91 and B retracing 64% to 1121.36 leaves us with a Wave C correction going to 1141.05 (100%) to 1153.22 (161.8%).

[xfradnex]

MOS skyrocketed.