09/28/2011 Intraday Watering

[99er]

Updates

Copper http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/copper_28.html
Crude http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/crude_28.html
30-Year http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/30y_28.html

[silicon_beaver]

It's better:
Today closes red Thursday and Friday go green.
Then this week is set, with windowing effect.

[jarbo456]

Paging Jarbo!

Time to add to SINA

think i'm maxed on my available risk for SINA. i'd like to see it make a clear break below 77, then i MIGHT consider piling on. but right now, i'm wrist deep, and that's about as much exposure to it as i want.

i wish i had left some ammo dry for a reload yesterday, but i'm stuck with what i got for now.

[99er]

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold_28.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver_28.html

[AK84]

Cobra,

Get well soon !! U are missed !!!!

Tell wifey to give u some lovin

[jarbo456]

going into 100% cash with cobra sidelined for a sick day.

jk lol

get better man...i've got a bit of a cold myself.

[Petsamo]

Bad tick on SPY before the close yesterday. It's visible at Marketwatch.com & ScottradeELITE.

[soku]

Last Friday before close, I raised the question: "where the money go?"
something fishy. gold and silver crashed, but where the money go? not in bond not in equity. i want to follow the smart money, but i first need to find them.
a conspiracy interpretation, they r waiting for the meetings this weekend. with the money escaped from metal market, i will say it could easily push spx up for 100-120 points
to like 1240-1260. of course the measurement will be similar if heading down.

Now is time to look back. With the extreme bearish sentiment in the market, where the bulls have become bears,where my favorite trader since yesterday is calling the collapse of the World with GS ruling, the set up for a huge squeeze is here. as I expected, the move up this morning was brutal, and killed many of the new “smart” shorts.
Technically since SPX hit 1195 level, which is just inch shy to my minimum target of 1198-1200 , the rebound can be considered satisfied. I think the brutal part is gone. It may move up a little bit or just correct at current level. It will be a small possibility case that SPX to challenge 1240-1260 maximum target.

The gold sell off was in response to the FED and "operation twist" -- which is not a QE tool. QE tend to lower the value of the dollar. As the dollar is debased the value of gold rises. No QE, traders take profits and buy dollars.

things are not that easy. the correlation between usd and precious metals is weakening. since last friday to monday, gold dropped from 1800 to even below 1600, silver drop more in terms of percentage. for the past 3 trading days, /dx actually went down too. if u watch the forex market closely, the change of /dx is more explained in eur crash.
my posts here are for short term trading. finding big money could be a shortcut to determine the next market movement.
is the twist an easing tool? sure it is. the ultimate goal of qe is not to manipulate dollar, but to adjust yield curve, which could be considered in lieu of rate action.

here is the full version of market view
http://readingtowin.blogspot.com/2011/0 ... arket.html

[davros]

bad news?

[ultramarine]

Updates

Gold http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/gold_28.html
Silver http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/silver_28.html

Thanks for the gold update 99er. It seems to be having problems getting over that gap from 8/8 at 1670ish.

[BullTart]

Deployed any remaining cash and now "all-in" TVIX.

[soku]

watch for 1162.25 the equ point. i am expecting a good trading market ahead.

[SB73]

Emerging Markets weak...Small Caps weak. Rally shouldn't exceed 1190.

Rally stopped dead in its tracks at about 60% retracement of last nights sell off. My model says we should see 1140ish soon. Perhaps another small rally after that.

[99er]

So honey...what are you planning for lunch?
RUT http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/09/rut_28.html

Toast.

[Al_Dente]

Here are internals
Same thing, different view, one min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =244574918

[bushwaffle]

dax, ftse, cac...all red

[Mr. BachNut]

Last Friday before close, I raised the question: "where the money go?"
something fishy. gold and silver crashed, but where the money go? not in bond not in equity. i want to follow the smart money, but i first need to find them.
a conspiracy interpretation, they r waiting for the meetings this weekend. with the money escaped from metal market, i will say it could easily push spx up for 100-120 points
to like 1240-1260. of course the measurement will be similar if heading down.

Now is time to look back. With the extreme bearish sentiment in the market, where the bulls have become bears,where my favorite trader since yesterday is calling the collapse of the World with GS ruling, the set up for a huge squeeze is here. as I expected, the move up this morning was brutal, and killed many of the new “smart” shorts.
Technically since SPX hit 1195 level, which is just inch shy to my minimum target of 1198-1200 , the rebound can be considered satisfied. I think the brutal part is gone. It may move up a little bit or just correct at current level. It will be a small possibility case that SPX to challenge 1240-1260 maximum target.

The gold sell off was in response to the FED and "operation twist" -- which is not a QE tool. QE tend to lower the value of the dollar. As the dollar is debased the value of gold rises. No QE, traders take profits and buy dollars.

I also think you have to take into account that the precious metals sell-off was at least in part due to the anticipated margin hike which was announced post close last week. I know at least a few desks on the street which considered it, as mongoose said, a confluence event to take profits, and watch as retailers got crushed in the anticipated margin hike.

Very good point, too.
Most everything is about the price of money.

Agree on need to think about where money goes next. Also agree on point about margin hikes. There was a fair amount of leverage in the metals trade. So, some of the cash that came out is true capital, but a chunk of the capital is to reduce leverage. So, I wonder what is the next trade that provides enough confidence for the big guys to lever up. For it to be equities, I think we need to see the VIX drop quite a bit to demonstrate lower risk quotes.

[Petsamo]

IWM gap fill is 66.50
XME & FCX had their gap filled already.

[Mr. BachNut]

Short still on with stop. Doing nothing. Will probably review late in day or after the close.
Not sure what to expect. Solid window dressing could force the stop, but there is some good resistance between here and there.
I think a higher high or lower low on the Advance Decline line would be clarifying.

[uempel]

60 min chart shows all the important support/resistance levels: