01/30/2021 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week has 61% chances to close up.

[Al_Dente]

The “Little guys” are transparent.
Hedge Funds, not so much.
To be fair, they do report. Good luck finding what you need here:
https://www.investor.gov/introduction-i ... ction-data]

Here’s a better peek under their hood, via Ortex data:
“GameStop stock short seller losses total more than $19B”
“And short-sellers have lost more than $70 billion on U.S. companies so far this year”.
“For generations, the information advantage held by professional investors has allowed the industry to access opportunities and seek profit where others couldn’t. But the emergence of new technologies is dismantling that information advantage and putting power back into the hands of individuals… knowledge is power and access to it should not be limited or concentrated around a privileged few. “
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gam ... -firm-says

This is Ortex free as a teaser to subscribe, undated but it was posted Thursday 1/28
https://public.ortex.com/gamestop-signa ... -of-power/

[Al_Dente]

[Source: Market Insider:]
BlackRock [BLK], the world’s largest investment manager, was likely up $1.2 billion from the frenzy, as the company had owned 9.2 million shares of GME at the end of 2020.

[Source: Fortune Mag:]
Hedge Fund legend Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management has declined 10% to 15% so far this month, while Dan Sundheim’s D1 Capital Partners, one of last year’s top-performing funds, is down about 20%.
Melvin Capital, Gabe Plotkin’s firm, had lost 30% through Friday (as Ken Griffin/Citadel and Steve Cohen rushed to Gabe’s aid).
“Melvin on Monday took an unheard-of cash infusion from its peers, receiving $2 billion from Griffin, his partners and the hedge funds he runs at Citadel, and $750 million from his former boss, Steve Cohen.”

A smaller hedge fund, the $3.5 billion Maplelane Capital, lost about 33% this month through Tuesday in part because of a short position on GameStop, according to investors.

TRIVIA:
Citadel manages roughly $34 billion in assets. As of October 2020 Citadel owner Ken Griffin had an estimated net worth of $15.8 billion.
Steve Cohen, the new owner of the New York Mets, has an estimated $14 billion net worth.
Dave Portnoy, who owned Barstool Sports and was/is an aggressive champion of the “little guy”' had an estimated net worth of
roughly $120 million as of November 2020.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" No Fear No Bear, now we got Fear, More fears more bears. Market noise creates fear, fear of loosing lead to sell the market, especially when the market is as fat as it is now. no one knows market is bubble until it pops, all market top ends with unexpected catalyst.
1987 currencies crisis, market crashed, black Monday caused by electronic glitched.
2001 DOT com boom, market crashed, end with Enron scandal /Sept 11 terrorist attack to follow.
2008 housing bubble, market crashed, Banking Lehman Brothers got belly up.
2020 QE, MMT, Fed bubble, Market crashed, Covid-19 Shutdown.
2021 More QE and MMT, more government intervention because there's no other way out, and here we are talking GameStop.......the outcome remain to be seen.

Throughout these hard times what the investor do after the crashed?
1987 move the money to .com boom
2001 move the money to housing market boom
2008 QE market boom after 2009 to QE infinity
2020 more QE/MMT......
2021 where are we going from here????? Is the GameStop the unexpected Catalyst to End the Game?

What a trader do? pull up his/her charts, get ready for the next trading day like He/She always do, tomorrow is another day.

Momentum is negative, short term trend change from up to down confirmed last Thursday.

Swing trade is in down trend, rip will be sold. Trade what is in front of you with risk management in all time. everything else is just noise (note to self), be careful out there and trade well. Peace!

[Cobra]

[Source: Market Insider:]
BlackRock [BLK], the world’s largest investment manager, was likely up $1.2 billion from the frenzy, as the company had owned 9.2 million shares of GME at the end of 2020.

[Source: Fortune Mag:]
Hedge Fund legend Steve Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management has declined 10% to 15% so far this month, while Dan Sundheim’s D1 Capital Partners, one of last year’s top-performing funds, is down about 20%.
Melvin Capital, Gabe Plotkin’s firm, had lost 30% through Friday (as Ken Griffin/Citadel and Steve Cohen rushed to Gabe’s aid).
“Melvin on Monday took an unheard-of cash infusion from its peers, receiving $2 billion from Griffin, his partners and the hedge funds he runs at Citadel, and $750 million from his former boss, Steve Cohen.”

A smaller hedge fund, the $3.5 billion Maplelane Capital, lost about 33% this month through Tuesday in part because of a short position on GameStop, according to investors.

TRIVIA:
Citadel manages roughly $34 billion in assets. As of October 2020 Citadel owner Ken Griffin had an estimated net worth of $15.8 billion.
Steve Cohen, the new owner of the New York Mets, has an estimated $14 billion net worth.
Dave Portnoy, who owned Barstool Sports and was/is an aggressive champion of the “little guy”' had an estimated net worth of
roughly $120 million as of November 2020.

The question is how many funds are now forced to sell their good asset o raise the money to cover the GME short position. If there're still may funds, then the stock market will face enormous selling pressure.

[Cobra]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear shows retailers are cautious.

[Cobra]

Al Brooks believe the break of the price channel is significant so traders should expect the sell off to continue down to 3600 the next week.

[Cobra]

I generally agree with Al Brooks, just the market never goes easy to bears so be prepared it doesn't go straight down early the next week. I'm ready for either side of the move now

[Al_Dente]

... The question is how many funds are now forced to sell their good asset o raise the money to cover the GME short position. If there're still may funds, then the stock market will force enormous selling pressure.

Data on shorts, from Ortex:
As of Jan 15,2021 (reported on Jan 27, 2021) there were 61.78 million shares short GME, which was 131.76% of the float.
Earlier: As of Dec 31, 2020 (which was reported on Jan 12, 2021) there were 71.2 million shares short GME, which was 151.84% of the float.

So is Robinhood the modern-day equivalent of a Lehman Brothers canary?
At the moment their clearinghouse won’t let that happen.
As you know, you can only buy one or two shares, depending on what day it is. But you can sell, pardon, EXIT your position… a rule that clearly benefits Hedge Funds when they want to EXIT their position by BUYING as much as they need to cover their shorts.
[Obviously, I’m certain that NO Hedgies trade on Robinhood, but you get my point].
I’m guessing that because the Hedgies know that most firms have restricted buying, they may not be too eager to exit their shorts yet (??)

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[jademann]

Alot of good posts this weekend for sure.
I thought this was funny last week: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/28/mark-cu ... folio.html

Weekly MACD is so ready:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p ... 0724404628

VIX shows a very strong bear signal:
https://schrts.co/setIUuTc

Also this..

[jademann]

Sorted

[Al_Dente]

SentimenTrader, today:
“This is beyond optimism, euphoria, or even bubble. It is an all-out mania. Despite the largest losses in months, small options traders nearly DOUBLED the amount of money they spent on buying calls to open last week. That's more than $44 billion this month alone.”
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/stat ... 80/photo/1

[Al_Dente]

[source: Najarian]
Here is a list of the top GME LONG shareholders:
(see the tiny number in the last listing… that’s the Reddit guy who started all the uproar seriously )
Fidelity - 9.8m shares
BlackRock - 9.2m
RC Ventures - 9.0m
Vanguard - 5.3m
SIG Holding - 4.4m
Dimensional - 3.9m
Senvest Management - 3.6m
Donald Foss - 3.5m
State Street - 2.6m
George Sherman (CEO)- 2.3m
Morgan Stanley - 1.9m
u/DeepFuckingValue - 50k

[marcueus3]

Al Brooks believe the break of the price channel is significant so traders should expect the sell off to continue down to 3600 the next week.

This is wrong price channel - market closed still above lower bounder of the channel. Still looks like new ATH in next few session as you mentioned earlier before going down under 2000 points on spx

[Al_Dente]

zerohedge:
[Caveat: recall that zerohedge is famous for their frequent Armageddon posts].
“On Thursday, Robinhood drew on its bank lines and obtained a $1 billion rescue capital investment and has since restricted users from trading stocks and options in dozens of securities. As we noted Friday evening, we believe there are issues "between DTC, clearinghouses and other regulatory entities, Robinhood was found to be in another capital deficiency position [Friday]- even with the billions raised overnight [Thursday] - and it is being forced to deliver."
This likely means that Robinhood is, even th[r]ough the weekend, scrambling to obtain even more capital, although we somehow doubt it will be easy. 
It also means that we may have to have another "Lehman Weekend" situation on our hands, only this time it will be a "Robinhood Weekend", and an urgent acquisition from a strategic buyer may be required to prevent the worst-case outcome. We only hope that the billions in funds held in custody for clients have segregated should the company collapse.“

This time zerohedge has company.
Here is a refrain spotted on the internet, particularly from firms trying to recruit Robinhood’s clients:
“So if Robinhood goes under the SEC will freeze all the accounts. The SIPC protects up to $500k in accounts. It takes months to unwind and get your money back. Move your money now. This could become a nightmare.”
And Friday at 2:35pm ET WeBull brokerage announced that trading in GME, AMC and KOSS was no longer restricted while restrictions remain at E*TRADE et.al. This changes daily....


https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[Cobra]

Al Brooks believe the break of the price channel is significant so traders should expect the sell off to continue down to 3600 the next week.

This is wrong price channel - market closed still above lower bounder of the channel. Still looks like new ATH in next few session as you mentioned earlier before going down under 2000 points on spx

The channel was taken. But anyway, channel is just a rough idea, break or no break I won't read much, the key is follow through.

[Cobra]

zerohedge:
[Caveat: recall that zerohedge is famous for their frequent Armageddon posts].
“On Thursday, Robinhood drew on its bank lines and obtained a $1 billion rescue capital investment and has since restricted users from trading stocks and options in dozens of securities. As we noted Friday evening, we believe there are issues "between DTC, clearinghouses and other regulatory entities, Robinhood was found to be in another capital deficiency position [Friday]- even with the billions raised overnight [Thursday] - and it is being forced to deliver."
This likely means that Robinhood is, even th[r]ough the weekend, scrambling to obtain even more capital, although we somehow doubt it will be easy. 
It also means that we may have to have another "Lehman Weekend" situation on our hands, only this time it will be a "Robinhood Weekend", and an urgent acquisition from a strategic buyer may be required to prevent the worst-case outcome. We only hope that the billions in funds held in custody for clients have segregated should the company collapse.“

This time zerohedge has company.
Here is a refrain spotted on the internet, particularly from firms trying to recruit Robinhood’s clients:
“So if Robinhood goes under the SEC will freeze all the accounts. The SIPC protects up to $500k in accounts. It takes months to unwind and get your money back. Move your money now. This could become a nightmare.”
And Friday at 2:35pm ET WeBull brokerage announced that trading in GME, AMC and KOSS was no longer restricted while restrictions remain at E*TRADE et.al. This changes daily....


https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

Robinhood has chance to go belly up.

[Al_Dente]

... Robinhood has chance to go belly up.

The numbers are in:
Melvin Capital lost 53% in January, as owner Gabe Plotkin lost over $5.3 billion in one month.
[Primary source is WSJ, and today it is being picked up by Bloomberg, CNBC, zh and many others].
In dollar terms, it means that Melvin lost over a whopping $7 billion in just one week thanks to wallstreetbets on Reddit. Here's the math:
Melvin started the year with about $12.5 billion [AUM] and now runs more than $8 billion. That $8 billion figure includes $2.75 billion in emergency funds injected last Monday (1/25) by Citadel and Cohen and.....

ELSEWHERE:
The media has been shocked and appalled to learn that small firms pay the big guys (Citadel in the case of Robinhood) for “order flow” to clear their trades.
This has been going on for at least 40 years …. and zerohedge knows this, but they claim that Citadel has a conflict of interest.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859

[QED]

.
Markowski: S&P At A Perilous Peak & Secular Bull High
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/markow ... bull-high/
.

[marcueus3]

Al Brooks believe the break of the price channel is significant so traders should expect the sell off to continue down to 3600 the next week.

This is wrong price channel - market closed still above lower bounder of the channel. Still looks like new ATH in next few session as you mentioned earlier before going down under 2000 points on spx

The channel was taken. But anyway, channel is just a rough idea, break or no break I won't read much, the key is follow through.

Thats how channel properly looks for now, I do not know from when CFD become as important as SPX but it is for now Tommorrow all will be clear