04/30/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 69% chances to close up. Noticed the profit factor is 6.3 which is very good.

[koolblue]

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[JFR]

SPY daily. 3 Line Break. Break down beneath the low of early March. Pushing the outside of the Bollinger envelope, on the down side. 7 bear bars in a row. Look out below.

[koolblue]

]Ive been trading for about 35 yrs now. I traded the 87 crash, the dot com crash in `99 , the 911 crash , the financial crisis around `04, and the housing melt down `08-9. This doesnt make me any smarter than any of you, but it does mean i have a boatload of experience with bear markets. I dont spend a lot of time on the longer term stuff, (its not useful to a short term scalper like me) but it is fun! This is just fun speculation fwiw

[koolblue]

[cletus]

Odd that Cobra only cites things from a buying perspective. For example, he never posts what the odds of a lower low are, only a higher high. Why?

[1der]

Odd that Cobra only cites things from a buying perspective. For example, he never posts what the odds of a lower low are, only a higher high. Why?

I am looking at this statistics box he includes with the graph. The odds of green are higher than odds of red. How would you present the data? Odds of close in red is 31% ??

[jademann]

These stats are based on the past several years which have mostly been during very bullish times.
My view is 3900ish is on the cards before a bounce.

[Al_Dente]

....

[Al_Dente]

TRIVIA:
In 2021, the Big Five tech giants - Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google - generated a combined $1.4 trillion in revenue.
There are two main ways that big tech companies generate revenue:
They either sell you a product (AAPL, MSFT, and AMZN)
Or sell you as the product to advertisers (FB and GOOG) ... Nearly 98% of FB's revenue comes from Facebook ads, and 81% of GOOG's revenue comes from advertising on various Google products.

This is what Goldman calls the "FAAMG mega caps" on the 60min, with SPY and QQQ in dashed lines for context:

[merryme]

RE: "These stats are based on the past several years which have mostly been during very bullish times."

Clearly shows the date as "since 2/5/1993". That's 29 years of data, so that includes the tech bubble in 2000, the housing bubble in 2007, and the covid crisis.

[te_fern]

koolblue, thank you for the background information. Glad you have join the Cobra community!! Thanks!

[Cobra]

$AAII bull – $AAII bear, it’s the 2nd record low now, the record was near the year 2009 bottom (dashed blue line).

[Al_Dente]

Some favorite MA signals for MID-TO-LONG TERM portfolios.
All are on sell signals and won't re-enter buy signals until price is above their respective MAs
DAILY: 200sma, sell (and the Death Cross 50/200 is still on sell)
WEEKLY: Stan Weinstein favors the 30sma, sell in Jan
MONTHLY: Mebane Faber favors 10sma pink EOM, sell Feb 1
MONTHLY: Bulkowski favors the 12sma, cyan, sell Feb
MONTHLY: Ned Davis: 3/10 cross, sell
MONTHLY: Last chance for procrastinators: UBS uses a break below 32sma (dash black) to avoid a downright crash, no sell yet

The chart below is WEEKLY, MID TO LONG TERM
Top panel: Note the Relative Strength carried the bull up UNTIL THIS YEAR. The RSI-14 broke down just after the Jan 4 high, and It hasn't recovered yet

Middle panel: Note the huge volume spikes seen in the 2020 crash (pink circle). Bulls see that the volume isn't that extreme yet.

Bottom panel (orange is 30ma): Friday's action broke down to a LOWER LOW on a CLOSING BASIS (ditto QQQ and IWM), and gave us the cyan-box target. The pink-dashed line is the neckline for the H&S, not yet confirmed.

Note that SPY could drop to 377-ish range (see black boxes, shown a few times before) and it would still just be a 38.2% fibonacci retracement, which is a garden-variety, standard correction. So a breakdown isn't the end of the world.. but people will act like it is...

I did see a few bull signals:
Sentiment, which Cobra just mentioned, hasn't been this bearish since near the 2009 lows. Contrarian.
Bulls are seeing a potential double bottom formation.
Price is very far below the 200ma (green arrows) suggesting some kind of bottom may be near.

[Al_Dente]

ALMANAC:
SPX " Down year-to-date and down in April preceded year loss 69.2% of the time"
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/6827 ... n-in-april

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" It's ugly out there. Oversold is not a buy. we have a market crash material situations. as a short term trader I see no sign of a reversal. oversold/overbought provide great entry for a reversal, if you are looking for counter trend move the low is closed but if 1 /ES point = $50 point of view, it could be a painful experience for early bird move.
Big picture: A break down attempt for the 3rd time (a charm ?). Think auction theory, a failed breakdown will take us back to the upper green box, but that is remain to be seen.

Short term LL is clear, Only price pays.

Day trade: Negative price action, so far no reversal to call to, down Friday at this level a continuation down on early Monday will be more likely. Trade well, Peace!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

History never repeats, but it sure rhymes a lot!

According to the smart guys the options market is too big compared to the underlying. That won't stop because the money center banks are making steady money by being the house (casino) with options. Funds rolled puts on Friday (and I am sure for most of the week). The house had to short the underlying to meet the rules (10% of the net position). So it became a self reinforcing feedback loop.

Same thing is happening in reverse for those blast off moments we have been experiencing.

Don't think the roller coaster will end anytime soon!

[JFR]

Another view.

SPY daily. Point and Figure.

As I read it, reading the tea leaves, no three alarm fire for the bulls, as of yet. More like a long term bull flag.

Long term is a very tired bull. Mid term is a bear. Short term is a bear. The O's have broken down through the blue trend line, however, so ...

Much caution is advised, especially for those who only invest long. And God help those who trust mutual funds, without really understanding the market themselves. Find an advisor who goes flat with the portfolio plan, when it drops a certain percentage.

I am mostly a day trader and scalper these days. Slim pickings for overnight holds on the long side this year. There have been many short sales available, even for overnights. But the gaps against can be nasty.

As the police roll call sergeant said: ''Let's be careful out there.''

And once again, welcome back to koolblue, who seems to have been away from this site for quite a while. Every view, and one's experience in the markets, is appreciated.