10/05/2011 Intraday Watering

[alvian33]

cobra, if up today again, shorting at the close had a 100% winning rate? still holds true? thanks

[Mr. BachNut]

Still have 1/2 of short position on. Putting a loose stop on it to ensure profit. Will be looking for a down day to close it out.
Yesterday had the fingerprints of a bullish reversal day.
With all the technical damage done, though, it is hard to envision a big bull charge right out of the gate.

I also have in the money index shorts that have been hedging core long positions. They get a loose stop too and will be closed with better confirmation of a trend change.

I am taking the view that yesterday's intraday low is THE low for this move. While the technicals still look bad to me, I saw a lot of capitulatory like dumping yesterday morning. Also, there is a nice positive divergence shaping up in the McClellan Oscilator vs. the August low that is characteristic of a bottom pattern.

[agnosia]

Can you post your trades, I thought you said you were out, not trading no more, I will try to follow you if you don't mind I got stopped with a loss of 40 cents

if u followed my original trade u would have been ok. long 78.4, stop 78. ( low was 78.03) .. decided to try again last minute with long at 10ema 78.03, stop 78.02. risk/reward was too nice to pass up

[BullBear52x]

I must be super bear, BUY TZA and sell short TNA. yeap lets roll the dice shall we?

[BullTart]

What's interesting here is that equities are up but the dollar is not tanking.

I started noticing this before... and back on Monday, that's what smelled fishy to me. Dollar wasn't playing along with the moves. Something was changing. It was enough for me to cash out and see what transpired from the sidelines.

This could be a very important change.

Equities might go up ALONG with the dollar, as money comes into the US equities market.

Why? Because just like the dollar, even though it sucks, it's still better than the alternative equity markets in Europe and now China and Asia. It's "relatively" good. It is easier to print money here than it is in Europe. etc. etc.

Will be watching this carefully. May add to my long 3X S&P ETF if this continues to develop. It could be the makings of a wave 2 up, which in EW discipline is designed to fool people into thinking that the initial drop won't continue.

If this goes as I think it will, people will start believing that we have double bottomed here and that we won't have a bear market in equities. Many will go long. Bears will disappear.

And it's exactly at that moment of recognition, just like the one we recently had where the bear flag was "broken" and everyone and their mother was short, where we will have the scary draft downwards as wave 3 down begins.

Similar to 2008.

[Cobra]

Cobra, would you start a poll, if the low was in yesterday or not!!!!!

OK.

[gabor]

Cobra, What about your statement 2 days ago saying "Lower close ahead". Is this still valid, or bullish reversal just cancelled it?

[rhight]

This market is a bucking bronco! I'm going to log out and wait for something to set up (long or short, don't know which yet). No position. It may be setting up to go long on weakness for a swing trade up. Meanwhile, here are some of the levels I'm watching.

[gabor]

Cobra, What about your statement 2 days ago saying "Lower close ahead". Is this still valid, or bullish reversal just cancelled it?

[Al_Dente]

NDX internals: back in a cycling mode.
Nice…but no cigar yet…

hi cougar
what does cycling mean?
thx

Hello "Al Dente": "Cycling" is a simplified way of saying that the price is prone to go up and down in small waves…”undulating” without a defined direction. This is opposed to “trending”- when the price might have small oscillations, but is in a trend UP or DOWN.
The “Empirical Mode“, which is based on the idea of “movement decomposition”, defines 3 domains, which attempt to “diagnose” those “modes”.
One has to be careful and not over-interpret it, because this indicator is nothing else than an “open end oscillator in relation to a virtual envelope”. That mans that “over-trending” can be interpreted, in the right context, as the equivalent of an overbought or oversold condition.

so, cycling is better term for “range” as opposed to “trend” if I understand u correctly
I watch yr “empirical mode” but don’t understand it because I don’t know what data is used to construct it (my stockcharts platform is different); appears to give good ob/os signals
Thanks cougar, no need 2 reply

[rhight]

“Rhight”: In “TASC” (the journal of TA geeks) there is an article:
“Empirical Mode Decomposition“: by J.F. Ehlers & R. Way, March 2010, p. 19.
You might like it.

Thanks for the reference, I'll see what I can find.

[agnosia]

break below 10 ema on 5min chart ( 1124 ) , i will short some more. currently short at 1128, stop even.

[Cobra]

OK, here's our new poll. Let's see Majority rules or the usual, the minority always right.

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=321&p=30481#p30481

[Cobra]

Cobra, What about your statement 2 days ago saying "Lower close ahead". Is this still valid, or bullish reversal just cancelled it?

still valid for couple of days.

[CognitiveDissonance]

What's interesting here is that equities are up but the dollar is not tanking.

I started noticing this before... and back on Monday, that's what smelled fishy to me. Dollar wasn't playing along with the moves. Something was changing. It was enough for me to cash out and see what transpired from the sidelines.

This could be a very important change.

Equities might go up ALONG with the dollar, as money comes into the US equities market.

Why? Because just like the dollar, even though it sucks, it's still better than the alternative equity markets in Europe and now China and Asia. It's "relatively" good. It is easier to print money here than it is in Europe. etc. etc.

Exactly.

Although on the wave count, I'm thinking we're in a 4 up.

[stucap]

short /es 1128. sold out of crude for +.5

good spot for a short --- way to be patient and nail it close to the high

[agnosia]

break below 10 ema on 5min chart ( 1124 ) , i will short some more. currently short at 1128, stop even.

ok short second set @ 1124, avg 1126. stop 1125.

[agnosia]

short /es 1128. sold out of crude for +.5

good spot for a short --- way to be patient and nail it close to the high

it's actually better risk / reward to short the break below the 10/20ema on the 5min chart. i usually don't try to pick tops like that but it was a major resistance according to my trendlines.

[jarbo456]

i don't think the low is in, but i'm still long the market right now. anyone in that camp?

[cougar]

“Rhight”: In “TASC” (the journal of TA geeks) there is an article:
“Empirical Mode Decomposition“: by J.F. Ehlers & R. Way, March 2010, p. 19.
You might like it.

Thanks for the reference, I'll see what I can find.

TASC = "Technical Analysis of Stocks & Comodities"

For serious stuff: look for the "Hilbert-Huang transform" or "HHT" and "Empirical Mode decomposition", on the internet...
I think the TA guys forgot to quote them properly...LOL!