07/08/2022 Live Update

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Not sure how much of the drop in commodities was a special circumstance and how much was a real drop in demand.

Crude- Hedge Funds got out with a whiff of demand destruction. Chinese now unlocking their economy. Market assumes $70 by fall but inventory is very low.
Grains- prices down while we read that UN sees mass starvation and Europe to be inundated with hungry refugees.
Nat Gas- US has lost 16% of export capability but when that returns next winter we could easily go back to parity with world rates. European rates super high after US export issue.
Metals-Guessing lack of demand from supply chain breakdowns/shut downs.

First hand report- Drove I-40 yesterday from Arizona to I-15 at Barstow, CA. We don't usually drive that road so not sure how unusual with what we saw. Literally miles of west bound BNSF trains (with locomotives, usually 3 per train) on sidings. All most all containers, some auto haulers. Guessing they were sitting in the desert because they couldn't unload in the Long beach area. Real clear we are not back to normal. Ties in with the report that 2% of world shipping is stuck at North Sea ports.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:52 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/07 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Monday looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Xian]

First hand report- Drove I-40 yesterday from Arizona to I-15 at Barstow, CA. We don't usually drive that road so not sure how unusual with what we saw. Literally miles of west bound BNSF trains (with locomotives, usually 3 per train) on sidings. All most all containers, some auto haulers. Guessing they were sitting in the desert because they couldn't unload in the Long beach area. Real clear we are not back to normal. Ties in with the report that 2% of world shipping is stuck at North Sea ports.

See those trains all the time on our way from LA to Vegas. Longest trains I've ever seen. I can say that during the real troubles we'd see the ships piled up in LONG lines waiting to get to port of Long Beach. They were EVERYWHERE and it was a mess. They'd even park in waters off Laguna Beach. Haven't seen that stuff in a while. From our literal perch (good view of the ocean.. Thanks Cobra!) I can tell you that the container ship mess at port of Long Beach has cleared up quite a bit. Traffic looks normal now.

Of course you can just download an app and see the actual real traffic for yourself. But that's what I've been seeing and see now.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Thanks for that! Wasn't sure if those trains were normal as we take 15 to Vegas.