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09/20/2022 Live Update

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Cobra
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09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

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Don't know whether the double bottom rebound was over or not, you can read it as a kiss the neckline goodbye though. The current red bar is big so probably a rebound here first that's the only thing I know.
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JFR
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES daily. Bulls are trying to make a stand and to move the market up.

2022-09-20_05-52-01.png
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JFR
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES 60 minutes. Strong push down. Testing beneath the Pivot.

2022-09-20_05-55-00.png
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JFR
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by JFR »

ES 5 minutes 3 pushes down. And a bounce back up to the EMA 20. Beneath the Pivot.

Back later ...

2022-09-20_05-57-20.png
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brokebybernacke2
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by brokebybernacke2 »

the market has one .75 rate hike priced in. that is it. QE has market so well trained.
ccash04
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by ccash04 »

Fresh new lows in bonds, seems like this could potentially be 100+ point down day on SPY unless bonds bounce here.
merryme
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by merryme »

It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »


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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

merryme wrote:It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.
The 3rd time's charm? So this time is different?

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marcueus2
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by marcueus2 »

Cobra wrote:
merryme wrote:It seems like the last two days are very similar: down at open then up at close.
The 3rd time's charm? So this time is different?
Last 2 days Wig20 close was same as SPX close - wig20 ends trading after only 90 minutes of USA is open. Today Wig20 is strong down so west want to go down this time :)
Trades w 2 Cats
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

ES 12-22 (20 Minute) 2022_09_20 (9_11_31 AM).png
I have had the theoretical range for wave 2 up on this chart since the weekend. So it did work out over the last 24 hours.
So far it sure isn't acting like a 3 of a 3 down. I have no choice but to count on FOMC tomorrow to make this move look right.
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

Breakdown in the next couple of bars then it's an early sign of a downtrend day.
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brokebybernacke2
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by brokebybernacke2 »

3800 keeps tuggin
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Cobra
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Cobra »

I'll need go outside, may not update until 1 pm.

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ccash04
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by ccash04 »

New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.
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Al_Dente
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Al_Dente »

THIS MORNING:
Traders are pricing in an 80% chance that the Federal Open Market Committee will lift its overnight lending rate tomorrow by 75 basis points for a third time, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. That compares with a 20% probability of a more outsized, 100 basis-point rate increase
Disclaimer: I am not an investment advisor. This is just my opinion NOT investment advice.
Daniel
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Daniel »

ccash04 wrote:New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.
Keep an eye on the insurance industry ETFs, kie and iak, because capital losses on bond holdings are mounting.

The industry is now largely a house of cards, with "anticipated returns" being skewed by assumptions, based on past years, of capital gains in bonds. These actuarial computations, on which future annuity and claims payouts are based, are about as sound as the 2005-7 housing market assumption that "home prices only go up".

KIE and IAK are currently underperforming both the general market and XLF. They're both either at or below their 50day and 200day simple MAs.

:|
Trades w 2 Cats
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by Trades w 2 Cats »

ES 3900-3905 major support resistance zone would be the 50 to 61.8% retrace of wave i down. We are already at 38% so wave ii is looking correct for now.
ccash04
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by ccash04 »

Daniel wrote:
ccash04 wrote:New lows on TLT and Investment Grade bonds, not good, zero bounce in them either.. not good for today, Fed meeting tomorrow maybe holds market up but if bonds keep going this way and dollar stays strong, testing June lows seems in the cards sooner rather than later.
Keep an eye on the insurance industry ETFs, kie and iak, because capital losses on bond holdings are mounting.

The industry is now largely a house of cards, with "anticipated returns" being skewed by assumptions, based on past years, of capital gains in bonds. These actuarial computations, on which future annuity and claims payouts are based, are about as sound as the 2005-7 housing market assumption that "home prices only go up".

KIE and IAK are currently underperforming both the general market and XLF. They're both either at or below their 50day and 200day simple MAs.

:|
This is a great point. So far today proved me wrong in that tech not really following long rates or maybe apple is holding everything up, thought move in rates would be fairly negative for stocks.

Maybe the ultimate play is shorting BRKB or BRKA, I view them as essentially a turbo-charged insurance play but more levered to equities than bonds.
brokebybernacke2
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Re: 09/20/2022 Live Update

Post by brokebybernacke2 »

everyone says rally into fed. drop after fed. maybe different this time...
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