10/22/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 1 week, the next week has 53% chances to close up, 76% chances to make a higher high.

[merryme]

Looking at $TNX for October = A. P&F charts only show the month if there was significant move during the month. We have 11 incidents of A appearing excluding the current October noted. In the last 40 years, (using this P&F charts only) October has been a turning point in rates. With this chart only, you see that 7 out of 11 times, rates move down from October. Only twice was October a bottom for rates. And twice rates continued up after October noted with arrows. 5 out of 11 times, October was the start of rates moving down. I am thinking we need to (at least) retest the breakout or even (possibly) retest the low. The rectangle is a 45-degree shape meaning the breakout was very significant. But I guess we all already knew that!

[BullBear52x]

From It is what it is department" Fake it or Make it will be the theme for this coming week. for now short term internals are bullish, momentum is good, everything you need to see to create bottom. but bulls can not rest here.

There is always some thing that is not there when you are bullish or bearish. that something is new highs-new lows index. I need to see this tick up on Monday, too weak for the bottom to set in.

Over all chart pattern and structures, look no further then last June/July. lots of works for bulls yet.

Intraday: Friday ended the day with positive price action, bulls can not rest here per the bigger picture. I will use HOD as a pivot for day trade, keep it simple. Peace!

[JFR]

Alternatives. 1 year of weekly charts.

Down: IAU, IYR, SPYG, SPYV and TLT

Up: DBC, USO and UUP

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Contra readings.

MACD up but beneath zero. Sto up.

EMAs 100 and 50 down. EMA 20 flat.

Bollinger down but flattening.

Candlesticks in a trading range since late September. Straddling the EMA 20.

For SPY, ES and the like, off the daily chart I have no bias. Day trades and scalps only, with some longer term swing trades off two-hour and hourly charts also possible.

Just in my opinion ...

[marcueus2]

From It is what it is department" Fake it or Make it will be the theme for this coming week. for now short term internals are bullish, momentum is good, everything you need to see to create bottom. but bulls can not rest here.

1.PNG

There is always some thing that is not there when you are bullish or bearish. that something is new highs-new lows index. I need to see this tick up on Monday, too weak for the bottom to set in.

2.PNG

Over all chart pattern and structures, look no further then last June/July. lots of works for bulls yet.

3.PNG

Intraday: Friday ended the day with positive price action, bulls can not rest here per the bigger picture. I will use HOD as a pivot for day trade, keep it simple. Peace!

4.PNG

there is two main problems. BONDS do not show top structure yet, check that in june bottom in SPX was 17.06 and top in BONDS was 14.06. There was possibility to make identical move on 28.09(bnds) and 30.09(stocks) but it failed. Right now bonds go further north so this up move is sadly fake, whats more it did not break above 3764( current range high) just close little under so next week will be very interesting

[nikman]

Looking at $TNX for October = A. P&F charts only show the month if there was significant move during the month. We have 11 incidents of A appearing excluding the current October noted. In the last 40 years, (using this P&F charts only) October has been a turning point in rates. With this chart only, you see that 7 out of 11 times, rates move down from October. Only twice was October a bottom for rates. And twice rates continued up after October noted with arrows. 5 out of 11 times, October was the start of rates moving down. I am thinking we need to (at least) retest the breakout or even (possibly) retest the low. The rectangle is a 45-degree shape meaning the breakout was very significant. But I guess we all already knew that!

Merryme, what if you draw the rectangle from the 1970s to now. If we take the higher rates of 1981-82 into account then this is still not a breakout of the bigger rectangle?

I don't understand P&F charting and so I don't know if what I am saying even makes sense.

[merryme]

Nikman, I am only able to go back to March 1980 on the P&F chart. So, I have included a monthly OHLC chart from 1961 so you can see my reasoning. I tried to color code the charts for easy reference. The pinkish box shows the capitulation top and note the retest from 10/1987, to me, that is one structure. Then the downtrend is another structure. Now, we have a V bottom. I show the retest potential with the turquoise arrow and lines. (None of this has to play out as shown...it is just one of many possibilities.) Note the DPO 17 which is based on the incredible cycle work by Martha Stokes. No matter how you cut it, this is not a happy chart for us. I am including the P&F chart drawn with the 45-degree rectangle as you suggest. Because of my age , I doubt I will ever see interest rates crazy low again in my lifetime!

[nikman]

Nikman, I am only able to go back to March 1980 on the P&F chart. So, I have included a monthly OHLC chart from 1961 so you can see my reasoning. I tried to color code the charts for easy reference. The pinkish box shows the capitulation top and note the retest from 10/1987, to me, that is one structure. Then the downtrend is another structure. Now, we have a V bottom. I show the retest potential with the turquoise arrow and lines. (None of this has to play out as shown...it is just one of many possibilities.) Note the DPO 17 which is based on the incredible cycle work by Martha Stokes. No matter how you cut it, this is not a happy chart for us. I am including the P&F chart drawn with the 45-degree rectangle as you suggest. Because of my age , I doubt I will ever see interest rates crazy low again in my lifetime!

Thank you!