10/06/2011 Intraday Watering

[uempel]

uempel, fundamentally speaking, apple is the best company in the world. Next earnings, and christmas earnings...

Not sure if you were sarcastic..or for real...I respectfully disagree with you. It's still a long term bull run. In terms of TA and fundamentals.

Problem is, that many aapl products will be commodities in a few years.. I guess an ipad will cost 30 $ in two or three years... But I don't want to talk fundamentals, the chart says everything. I'll post it later on...

This was not my idea, picked it up from "singularity" in the comment section of Cobra's blog. Idea of the chart is very sound - HFs longed aapl and hedged by shorting XLF, saw that the market risk was in XLF. With this construction big aapl positions made sense and were relatively safe.

The aapl/xlf ratio shows a superb bull, something for the books. I'm not into EW, but I put a EW count on it because it fits perfectly. Now whoever did not short aapl when he/she saw this chart two weeks ago is... It was like picking up money off the road.

I'm going to cover when the ratio is at approx 27, and that's when I'll also sell JPM (I longed JPM instead of XLF, I don't like ETFs and try to avoid them).

As to the company: I use many apple products and am a fan, but I don't like stocks which have only been moving in one direction for a few years. Look what happened to PFE, INTC, CSCO, MSFT in 2000 - great companies making tons of money, but they all cracked because everybody owned them and there were no buyers left...

[PhilM]

Still holding TMV and expect to hold it for some time.

Me too.

What I'm womdering is whether there might be some fundamental bottom on interest rates the government can get away with charging, such that TMV has mostly upside and little downside. Or can Bernanke manipulate things to do what he wants.

[wayne0708]

cobra,
what happening here? its been at this point for a good 10 min, right? and no movement

[wayne0708]

pretty strong support i guess?

[EvilTrader]

It will sell-off a bit today.

Maybe gap down 2morrow cobra ?

Market seems extreme to both sides.

[Al_Dente]

3:10 ET
If “bulls” (bears reducing risk by covering some shorts) are going to do it, they’ll do it soon.
Am not going to the bathroom, letting the dog out, checking the mail, for rest of trading session.

[CognitiveDissonance]

and the phd dropout getting 120/hour just hit the hft to the 'buy' position

[jarbo456]

3:10 ET
If “bulls” (bears reducing risk by covering some shorts) are going to do it, they’ll do it soon.
Am not going to the bathroom, letting the dog out, checking the mail, for rest of trading session.

you got a spare empty bottle under your desk? i need one over here.

[uempel]

Last chart for today, bye guys.

[99er]

Steve Jobs

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/ ... nford.html

[CognitiveDissonance]

Commencement speech at Stanford University, 2005

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything - all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice.

Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

-Steve Jobs

Great post, thanks!

[billow]

the show is on, let's watch for fun

[lazytrader]

Anyone planning to trade GOOG earnings. Stock was never down in mnth of October...Chk the link below.

http://www.thomsoninvestortools.com/com ... ymbol=goog

[Unique]

uempel, notice the P/E difference between Apple and the companies you mentioned. Plus there was the tech bubble.

Thanks for sharing your chart.

Yes, I shorted AAPL from 400+ to 370. Then day traded it afterwards. That was an easy short, but I used different indicators. Not the XLF ratio you mentioned. It's great to learn this new thing.

[CognitiveDissonance]

and the phd dropout getting 120/hour just hit the hft to the 'buy' position

or the 'sell' button. I don't know but I think they pay less for that

[Al_Dente]

guys, when u get a fakeout/trap, u join the other side.
its really simple... dont be stubborn ...just join us

yr tmv breaking out first !

[KENA]

Praying for major sell off starting at 3:30PM as usual

lets join hands, amen.

Just relax and buy green then watch and go with the flow.

[tdo722]

OMG, SPX drops down to 1120s level already. So I can initiate my shopping mission.

[Dow Trader]

tommorow report or next earning, this market will sell the news soon because it priced in everything with this 8% move from the low, it might reach 12% but not with this extended move and soon an important report. Keep in mind that yesturday and today was heavy in news regarding Eroup and US. So the priced in scenario is highly possible for sell the news

[EvilTrader]

Commencement speech at Stanford University, 2005

Remembering that I'll be dead soon is the most important tool I've ever encountered to help me make the big choices in life. Because almost everything - all external expectations, all pride, all fear of embarrassment or failure - these things just fall away in the face of death, leaving only what is truly important. Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart.

Your time is limited, so don't waste it living someone else's life. Don't be trapped by dogma - which is living with the results of other people's thinking. Don't let the noise of others' opinions drown out your own inner voice.

Your work is going to fill a large part of your life, and the only way to be truly satisfied is to do what you believe is great work. And the only way to do great work is to love what you do. If you haven't found it yet, keep looking. Don't settle. As with all matters of the heart, you'll know when you find it. And, like any great relationship, it just gets better and better as the years roll on. So keep looking until you find it. Don't settle.

-Steve Jobs

That was an amazing speech.

Soooo true. God bless his soul.