12/31/2022 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 4 weeks in a row, the next week has 70% chances to close up with profit factor 6.1 which is very good.

[JFR]

SPY daily. One year.

Trend down. Lower highs.

Strong move down starting on December 15.

EMA 20 down.

EMA 50 and 100 flat.

Price beneath the EMAs.

Bollinger down slightly. Recent push on the lower envelope.

Elder bars are flat.

MACD down. MACD Histogram is up, but beneath zero.

Mixed readings, although it is mostly bearish.

So, what happens in 2023?

January sets the tone.

My intuition and reading of the charts say we can expect more down. Caution is key.

For this trader that means daytrade and scalp ES and the like, both long and short.

There are stocks that go up, even when the market is down. Swing trades based on 60 minute and 120 minute charts, even possibly overnight. And of course daytrade stocks and ETFs.

Just in my opinion. All the best to Everyone in the new year.

Thank you, Cobra, for your site, and your patient leadership.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449374

[Al_Dente]

ULTRA LONG TERM, 20 years
YEARLY CHART, with a 5-year MA

[jademann]

Could touch bottom of channel in 2023
Hmm 700 to 3800. Methinks this could be the cause of inflation.

[Al_Dente]

XLE (oil stocks ETF) uptrend
Crude Oil price per barrel (WTIC, west texas intermediate crude) downtrend
Hmmmmm
12/9/22 old article:
"Oil ETFs Rise as Crude Falls, Defying Logic"
"Even with WTI down 3% this year [as of 12/9], the United States Oil Fund (USO)—which holds oil futures—has gained 18% [as of 12/9].
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-etfs ... 00709.html

[Al_Dente]

This is the Seasonality chart that we used for all of 2022
https://charts.equityclock.com/sp-500-i ... onal-chart
The fine print says: "20 year range ending 12/31/21"
So they "should" soon update it for next year, right?

[Al_Dente]

LONG TERM. SPY WEEKLY CHART.
SPY is still on a sell
On Balance Volume has been on a sell since Q1 this year
USHL (high low) sell since November 2021

[Al_Dente]

Short term
LEVERAGED stock/ETF performance
Long and short
ONE MONTH
Relax: performance charts/tables just show where we've been, not where we're going.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

1. Past performance etc. etc. applies to historical projections. Over the last 20 years we have had central banks trying to manage the market with extreme liquidity injections. Until the Fed signals that they are resuming those injections analogs will not work because of the underlying change in fundamentals. So instead of typical seasonality we should be watching Fed meeting comments, after all the Fed and CPI have been primary triggers this year.

2. This is the most widely anticipated recession ever according to the media, with everyone except Goldman predicting it. However, David Rosenburg recently quipped that even though they all predict recession the average forecast is for a 7% increase in earnings. Only conclusion I can draw is they expect the central bankers to be doing helicopter money sometime in the last half of the year.

3. To me the strangest thing is not the way all the Fed liquidity was absorbed by the markets, after all that is what Wall Street does, absorb surplus funds, but rather the way billions has been evaporated off the balance sheets but the liabilities are still there due to borrowing at low rates for dividends and buybacks. Apple being a prime example. We saw what happened to GE when they went too far and now with rapidly increasing interest payments and a plunging stock price how will these clever CEOs save their sorry rear ends from this death spiral?

4. My biggest regret this year was playing Carvana as an amusement with not much conviction. I only shorted a couple of hundred shares. With spectacular results. Will be looking for more totally stupid managements to short this year. My initial criteria:
A Large levels of floating rate debt used to finance inventory
B Inventory declining in value
C Needless to say stock price down so hard they can't sell new shares and every move up is met with selling by
trapped longs
D Prefer major consumer items
Will be stalking the Recreational Vehicle space. Bloated inventories, rapidly falling prices and for most an unneeded toy. Interesting fun fact on manufacturers. They all have a guaranteed buyback with their dealers' banks on new units. So if any dealer goes down, they buy back at the dealer's invoice. So many small dealers, a few go down, not a problem. Mega dealers, (cough, Camping World, cough) big trouble for Thor or Winnebago. Still looking for auto oriented as the supposed flood of repos will really push prices over the cliff. Needless to say there has to be some commercial real estate out there as this is a slow-motion crash. And last but not least somebody was probably arbing short verses long term rates with a big portfolio of residential mortgages and or mortgage originations and servicing rights, along with the big home builders with their multi-year project time lines.

Needless to say none of this is in any way or form to be considered advice. Strictly a giant joke.
Have a great trading year!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Put this one into your play book for the first quarter. We all saw how the old collar played out this week moving into month end expire.

From Twitter-

[te_fern]

Great stuff Pasta Boss, Thanks!!

[te_fern]

And then, here comes Cats with more great stuff! Thanks everyone, have a happy new year!!

[Al_Dente]

Thanks fern HAPPY NEW YEAR!

[tsf]

HAPPY NEW YEAR and a BIG THANK YOU to Cobra and the members of this excellent board !

[JFR]

Alternatives, for the year, weekly charts.

Up, to a degree: DBC USO UUP.

Down: IYR SPYG TLT.

Mostly flat, like a putt that is mostly straight, GLD SPYV.

We are in the new year, ready for the stock market to open. Let the games begin.

[jack black]

Happy New Year everyone!

Does anyone know what is up with $CPC and especially $CPCE? is it broken or is now one of the best long trades of the decade?