10/07/2011 Intraday Watering

[cougar]

On SPY 60 min: a possible but unlikely top around 119.

[seekingknowledge]

Go short into the close we are way to strechted

Right there with you. Waiting to pounce.

[99er]

SPX
Before the bell.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_07.html

[Cobra]

the open.

[EvilTrader]

SPY 50 day MA daily is acting as resistance.

Down we go, at least for today.

[Tabby]

SPX
Before the bell.
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/10/spx_07.html

I have 5 layer of waxing on my board,let me when we are going surf. tired waiting for the wave. Thanks for warning on the killer butterfly yesterday.

[Cobra]

what's the payroll number? ten million jobs created?

[agnosia]

what's the payroll number? ten million jobs created?

http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx

[pidge66]

what's the payroll number? ten million jobs created?

103,000 jobs, expecting 65,000.

The VZ strike subtracted 45K jobs from last month and added them to this month.

That's a 90K swing. If you add the 45K to last month, and subtract it from this month, you have a WHOPPING 13K jobs this month. There is no reason to get excited about this jobs report, and I have already added to my shorts. I'm also taking some more miners off.

This morning strength will be sold.

[alvian33]

you missed one cobra, i think its 10,000,001

[jarbo456]

a lot faster drop than i expected. now i wonder if the gap will be bought. hmmmmmm

[putts]

you missed one cobra, i think its 10,000,001

All future postal workers, too.

http://redtape.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011 ... rvice-woes

[agnosia]

a lot faster drop than i expected. now i wonder if the gap will be bought. hmmmmmm

good question. i find that if they close the gap , today's is 1159 /es then lower prices are ahead. in crude the gap was 82.59, but the low was 82.61, so the gap wasn't filled meaning we will probably get higher prices. of course this is a general rule and usually works but not always

[pablorynx]

i definitely missed the rally. didn't expect to be this big. but trading counter trend in the market is suicidal. at this point, i have no choice but to add to my short at the 50 ma.

I hate hearing people say 'no choice'. always a choice. you make your decisions.

[q2model]

After trading up another 1.83% yesterday, SPX is now up almost 6% in 3 days and marked its 3rd consecutive +1.5% gain for the first time since Aug2002 – you have to go back to Oct 1982 to find 4 days in a row. Since then, there have only been 3 other instances of 3 in row and performance following these streaks are mixed – the following day was down 2 of 3 times, 3day performance was down 2 of 3 times and 5 day performance was down 1 of 3 times. Data below. That being said – Non Farm Payrolls are released this morning and we have traded lower the last 4 reports in a row.

SPX +1.5% 3 days in a row…
Dates Perf (%) Following Day (%) Following 3D (%) Following 5D (%)
Oct29-Nov2, 1987 9.63 -1.93 -0.5 -4.92
Dec7-9, 1987 4.43 -2.23 1.38 3.85
Aug6-8, 2002 8.49 0.35 -2.35 2.74


Non Farm Payrolls…
Month Release Date NFP Actual NFP Est Surprise (Actual-Est) SPX Performance
Sep11 10/7/2011 ? 59 ? ?
Aug11 9/2/2011 0 75 -75 -2.53%
Jul11 8/5/2011 117 85 32 -0.06%
Jun11 7/8/2011 18 105 -87 -0.70%
May11 6/3/2011 54 175 -121 -0.97%

[jarbo456]

a lot faster drop than i expected. now i wonder if the gap will be bought. hmmmmmm

good question. i find that if they close the gap , today's is 1159 /es then lower prices are ahead. in crude the gap was 82.59, but the low was 82.61, so the gap wasn't filled meaning we will probably get higher prices. of course this is a general rule and usually works but not always

good point. i'm just very cautious. a lot of mixed signals on my charts. i could see us moving down at least 114, but there's easily an argument that we move to 118 as well.

[ocassional observer]

what's the payroll number? ten million jobs created?

103,000 jobs, expecting 65,000.

The VZ strike subtracted 45K jobs from last month and added them to this month.

That's a 90K swing. If you add the 45K to last month, and subtract it from this month, you have a WHOPPING 13K jobs this month. There is no reason to get excited about this jobs report, and I have already added to my shorts. I'm also taking some more miners off.

This morning strength will be sold.

that's wrong. it's 57k+45k last month so 102k, and 103k-45k this month which is 58k. so actually this month is worse than last but who cares? we beat estimates, yeah!

[wuzzy]

The bottom line is that there are far more initial claims than new jobs.

[heavenskrow]

to those that want to scalp, TLT in logarithmic 1 hourly chart might be interesting

although im on the other side of trade....

[silicon_beaver]

Am I the only one to see the p-bar? It marks 117.3
It couldn't be seen on-1-min chart.