04/20/2023 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Bias looks down for now so may test the line below?

[marcueus2]

Guys I do not want to kill bull dreams of paradaise but my magic ball said rebound is over By end of June SPX should get below 3500 and than we will see.

[Al_Dente]

8:30 Initial Jobless Claims [jobless claims rise higher than expected]
8:30 Philly Fed Business Outlook
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:00 Leading Indicators
12:00 PM, 12:20 PM, 3:00 PM, 5:00 PM, 7:45 PM, various FED speakers

[Al_Dente]

4/20 TSLA LEADS TECH LOWER pre-market
Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell after the bell on Wednesday after lower pricing and high expenses contributed to a margin miss. The company will continue to prioritize sales growth ahead of profit due to the EV price war and macro challenges in the economy. "This is an extremely important point," Elon Musk said on the earnings call. "We're like laying the groundwork here, and it's better to ship a large number of cars at a lower margin, and subsequently, harvest that margin in the future as we perfect autonomy."

[Al_Dente]

"Tesla's Profit Margins Take a Huge Plunge and It's Not Over Yet

https://mishtalk.com/economics/teslas-p ... t-over-yet

[Serenity]

!PESPX SPX PE ratio was 24.24 on 1/3/2022 with SPX at 4790 with 390 stocks above 50 SMA.
As of yesterday !PESPX reading at 24.05 with 296 stocks at 50 SMA.
Looking at when SPX reached at 4170ish, !PESPX was 24.20 on 2/1/2023 with 370 stocks at 50 SMA .
Unless all the poor performing stocks in spx get delistead, I don't know how far we can push PE ratio goes higher. Month of May is the month that most of indexes rebalance their listing.Breadeth can go higher/improve ( maybe) if they delist zombie stocks from their list.
My guess is we can not go above !PESPX 24.20, unless bulls buy all the poor performing stocks and pushing them higher. I'll be watching financial.

[merryme]

Easy to follow TSlA chart. Has to at least break $164 for some panic to ensue.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Arrg! Not another range day!

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2023/04 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red

[te_fern]

SpaceX’s Starship rocket exploded above the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, minutes after lifting off from a launchpad in South Texas. The spacecraft failed to reach orbit, but it was not a fatal failure.

NY Times

[Cobra]

EMA20 now is the bear's last stand. If today reverses up again then it'd be the 2nd time in a row, bears probably are over again, so the last stand must stand.

[merryme]

Spacex = tough one for the IRS because most people don't lose billions when their rocket explodes.
DEDUCTING PASS-THROUGH BUSINESS LOSSES. The rules are tough now, used to be so lucrative!

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Note the measured move for both OPEC production cuts. Biden is still selling out of the US Strategic Reserve, but at a slower pace. It is annual shut down season in Chinese refining. They got unlocked by the CCP and imported a bunch of cheep US and Russian crude to fill storage, now shutting down for maintenance. US transport demand is down for trucking but back to reasonable for airplanes. Waiting for the US driving season to start. That will either kill it or spark a recovery.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

The widow maker doing it's thing. Lots of twitter/U Tube adds claiming buy the low in natty and make a lot of dough. Historically a low like these (over 30 year look back to find it) does't cure in a week or two.

I will be getting back into US royalty trusts eventually, but no big rush. I would like to see (as Peter Lynch observed) that if I say Oil and Gas at a cocktail party everyone walks away!
SJT
SBR
and several others

[JFR]

ES daily.

Home on the range; trading range that is. Day 15 in this base, that seemingly goes on forever. Never another bull trend. Never another bear trend. Ha ha. No worries. Play the fades and smaller movements.

Above the EMA 20. Heavy lifting needed to breakout.

[Cobra]

Possible higher low (green arrow).

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Another day in the range. Down through the Pivot and through S1.

Bounce back up to the EMA 20, where it is hanging on.

[te_fern]

Fed Waller at noon EST

[Al_Dente]

Pillow Guy Mike Lindell had offered $5M to “prove him wrong” to anyone who could disprove his claim to have data showing China interfered in the 2020 election.

4/20 BREAKING: An arbitration panel has ordered Mike Lindell to pay $5 million to a cybersecurity expert who proved him wrong, debunking his election data. He won the “Prove Mike Wrong” election-fraud challenge.
[I think Mike's Pillow is private, not a public company]