04/22/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week, the next week has 60% chances to close up.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Navel gazing. Reading the tea leaves. Looking into the crystal ball. Et cetera.

CTM down, but in the upper atmosphere.

Bollinger ''river'' still up.

Elder bars are blue.

Most recent bar is a doji, when viewed as a candle.

Three bearish bars in a row, with lower highs.

Price is above the EMA 20.

Price stalled out when it reached the high of February 2nd. At a slightly lower high.

The trend is still up since the low of March 13.

The EMA 20 is still up strong, but slowing down.

The EMAs 50 and 100 are up, and in the correct alignment.

Volume is not noteworthy. It is not high, as at bottoms and tops.

MACD is above zero, but is crossing over down.

Histogram is declining, and is at the zero line.

Sto is declining, but is at a very high level. It could easily move right back above 80.

There are other indicators also, but this is enough for now. Indicators become redundant, although they do give some confirmation.

Conclusions: For this trader, the trend is still up, but it has paused and is pulling back. It might get a bounce at the EMA 20. There is a good chance it will go back up and knock on the door once again of a breakout. Almost equally, it my continue to move down. For this trader, on a swing trade basis, it is in ''no man's land." For swing trades I prefer a bull market, over a bear market. I find trading longs easier than trading short on stocks. For index futures and ETFs I have no preference, long or short. In this trading range market, of course, there are many opportunities for fades at tops and bottoms of bases.

All in all, imo, the market is looking OK. Not bad. Not great. Patience is needed. Paraphrasing from memory --> I think it was Buffett, chanelling baseball great Ted Williams, who preached: "Wait for the perfect pitch." When he was asked how he would like to be remembered, Williams said: "I hope people will say he was the greatest hitter ever." Agreed, especially as he spent 5 years in the middle of his career serving in the Armed Forces. And Buffett at this time is the greatest investor ever. IMO.

Just in my opinion.

[JFR]

Alternative markets. 6 months.

Stocks. Up since March. Up since January.

Commodities. Down since November.

Gold. Up since November.

Bonds. Up since November.

Oil. Down since November.

US Dollar. Down since November.

Gold and the dollar negative correlation.

[tsf]

NOT TRADING or INVESTMENT ADVICE.

In my amateurish untrained beginner's eyes:

Bearish Double Close Key Reversal pattern and Stochastic %K(5,2,3) between 85 and 100 suggest a short-term decline for XLF and FAS.

Bullish Double Close Key Reversal pattern and Stochastic %K(5,2,3) between 15 and 20 suggest a short-term rise for VXX and UVIX.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Al_Dente]

0DTE = Zero Days to Expiration = traders buying puts or calls in the am, and selling them in the pm

Coming Monday (or "next week"): There will be a new ONE-DAY VIX.
[Please post a new symbol when you see one].
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

The VIX Is Dead, Long Live The 0DTE VIX
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vix-d ... e-0dte-vix

Spot Gamma weighs in on 0DTE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNJEcNOyNg8

More on 0DTE, "one of the hottest trades in the equity market"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

[merryme]

TSLA on the weekly. ADX weekly shows not trending yet. Potential Distribution TOP or HUGE trading range.
Note how the SPLIT on the BULL market in 2020 causes a nice up move. While the SPLIT in 2022 is during a TSLA BEAR and the stock heads south.

[merryme]

TSLA daily view with the ANCHORS worth noting. There would be buyers at the $140 anchor. The way I trade, I always assume (doesn't mean I am right!) that wicks and tails are Market Makers being jerks and running stops. To me, after much analysis $164.80 is a significant level. I imagine there are loads of stops below $160.56. TSLA is a fascinating stock to monitor.

[merryme]

TSLA: This is a 3 x 3% P&F which is a longer term and gives the BEST CASE for a DISTRIBUTION TOP (as opposed to a trading range.)
Here's why: I put red arrow by the large up volumes and up moves. That's how Smart Money plays. They bring a stock price up and sell to the rest of us in the hopes of not disturbing price to the downside! The first red arrow shows a nice upthrust (potentially these are Up Thrusts After Distribution) but the 2nd red arrow has more volume but a smaller move. This could be the last change to sell before the next leg down. And, I could be wrong again! I know that the news reported that Cathy Wood is buying. I need to wait and see how this plays out.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Market is topping and turning south, price drop below 5 DMA. What is your time frame of a trade? Daily trend following = Buy dips; Swing = Sell rips; intraday = Sell rips. simplify!

overall market is in a bearish consolidation. MACD is one of the most indicator use to show the turn.

For support and resistance level, look left. trend lines, channels, and horizontal lines are arts more than a science. exact price is vary.

Swing sell setup, I use the box as road map to day trade.

Intraday: Friday we closed with positive price action. Up Friday should continue on Monday. all of my signals pointing south. keep it simple. Peace!

[BullBear52x]

Common trader mistake: everyone has their signals, the moment it triggers we question ourselves. if not, you are a robot.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Pareto Securities April 14, 2023

If you are curious about oil tankers-
They come in several sizes. They come in two colors, regular and grey market. Grey market turn off transponders and transport Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil. They are about 1/3 of the fleet and mostly run by Greek ship owners. Reasonable people do not invest in Greek ship owners because they treat stock holders very very badly.

Tankers have a service life. At the end they are sold to the scrappers where they are run up on the beach and taken apart. Newer ships meet current environmental standards. Some older ships have been equipped with stack scrubbers allowing them to use the worst grades of fuel. The newest can use LNG for fuel, but those engines are very expensive. By the way there are about 850 Very Large Crude Carriers circling the globe.

Owners can either take long term charters or put their ships in the spot market.

Three recent developments have caused opportunity. The new environmental rules force older ships to use more expensive (less polluting ) fuel. The Covid crisis caused freight rates for container ships to sky rocket. Owners did what they always do and totally filled the ship yards with new container ships. Then the European sections on Russian oil hit changing supply lines and voyage lengths. Thus, there are essentially no new tankers for several years.

John Fredriksen the shipping king, and others have gone to a business model where they pay out profits in dividends to share holders, not bonuses to management. Current used values are important because tanker companies are priced compared to the current net value of their fleet.

Tankers are usually a bad investment. Because when times are good they over order and then spend years at break even operating or even below operating. But like an ice cream store on a hot summer, when things are right they make a huge amount of money.
Many think that is what is happening right now as we are in a new three or four year supercycle. Or not!

Why take your precious time to learn about an investment that is usually a loser. Well, if the experts are correct where else can you buy for less than net asset value and be looking at a possible dividend return of 15%. Also many have share holder meetings in Bermuda if you want to explain that write off to an IRS auditor.

[Al_Dente]

...If you are curious about oil tankers...

Thanks Boss:
This isn't tankers but TRUCKS... just FYI...
J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBH), the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a "freight recession."
... Cargo demand has been softening...
According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/freig ... p-pandemic

[JFR]

april 14 tanker companies.jpg

VLCC order book.jpg

Tankr super cycles.jpg

If you are curious about oil tankers-
They come in several sizes. They come in two colors, regular and grey market. Grey market turn off transponders and transport Russian, Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil. They are about 1/3 of the fleet and mostly run by Greek ship owners. Reasonable people do not invest in Greek ship owners because they treat stock holders very very badly.

Tankers have a service life. At the end they are sold to the scrappers where they are run up on the beach and taken apart. Newer ships meet current environmental standards. Some older ships have been equipped with stack scrubbers allowing them to use the worst grades of fuel. The newest can use LNG for fuel, but those engines are very expensive. By the way there are about 850 Very Large Crude Carriers circling the globe.

Owners can either take long term charters or put their ships in the spot market.

Three recent developments have caused opportunity. The new environmental rules force older ships to use more expensive (less polluting ) fuel. The Covid crisis caused freight rates for container ships to sky rocket. Owners did what they always do and totally filled the ship yards with new container ships. Then the European sections on Russian oil hit changing supply lines and voyage lengths. Thus, there are essentially no new tankers for several years.

John Fredriksen the shipping king, and others have gone to a business model where they pay out profits in dividends to share holders, not bonuses to management. Current used values are important because tanker companies are priced compared to the current net value of their fleet.

Tankers are usually a bad investment. Because when times are good they over order and then spend years at break even operating or even below operating. But like an ice cream store on a hot summer, when things are right they make a huge amount of money.
Many think that is what is happening right now as we are in a new three or four year supercycle. Or not!

Why take your precious time to learn about an investment that is usually a loser. Well, if the experts are correct where else can you buy for less than net asset value and be looking at a possible dividend return of 15%. Also many have share holder meetings in Bermuda if you want to explain that write off to an IRS auditor.

Thanks for the post, and the information. It is very interesting, and honestly, the amount of detail is quite a bit above my level of interest in shipping itself up to this time. I do trade some shipping stocks, but that is based on charts and financial information.

Regarding information, do you have a source, in addition to Pareto Securities, for the above anecdotal (unsourced) information, url websites, so we can dig in a little deeper? It is evident that you have read a great deal about the industry. Thank you.

[merryme]

Tanker transport is so interesting to me. Have you seen the new wind challenger that is being added to tankers?
https://maritime.news/66445/#:~:text=Th ... efficiency.

https://newatlas.com/marine/new-aden-supertanker-sails

All tech is changing.

[JFR]

From "It is what it is department" Market is topping and turning south, price drop below 5 DMA. What is your time frame of a trade? Daily trend following = Buy dips; Swing = Sell rips; intraday = Sell rips. simplify!

Great post. BB52. You've got it covered. Longer term, swing trades and intraday. You continue to inspire me, as you have for years.

[Al_Dente]

ALMANAC update
https://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/7152 ... x-deadline

[Al_Dente]

BBBY Bed Bath & Beyond Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy today
[see zh]

[Cobra]

$AAII bull - $AAII bear pull back from the bear market high (red arrows), not sure it means anything. My guess is it still has some up rooms, retailers are cautious now.