06/24/2023 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 1 week the next week has 60% chances to close up.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Day 4 in the pullback. Not filled with bearish marubozus, mostly small candles.

Not heavy volume on the way down, but today's volume was the heaviest of the pullback.

Approaching the EMA 20.

EMAs 20 50 100 are all up, but the 20 is flattening.

MACD crossing over down. The Histogram is moving down.

The Sto has crossed over and is heading south.

Conclusion:

Almost all indicators are bearish.

But it is not in a free-fall.

Caution is advised of course. No swing trades long. Go short on SPY and the like? Not for this trader. It is in No Man's Land.

Just in my opinion.

Have a good weekend.

[te_fern]

Over the weekend, please take a moment to vote for Cobra, thanks!!: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377

[Al_Dente]

RELATIVE STRENGTH vs SPY
on the WEEK

[Al_Dente]

There hasn't really been extreme selling volume (red) since March.
You could argue that without extreme selling volume, it's hard to locate a bottom... without a bit of a wash-out...
[Not shown here: the last extreme BUYING volume event was in May].

[Al_Dente]

FEAR AND GREED INDEX
https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

[Al_Dente]

SEASONALITY CHART for July shows up up up!!

[Al_Dente]

[TODAY from Mario Nawfal... Elon Musk retweeted this and said: "Best coverage of the situation I’ve seen so far is from Mario"]

As the coup continues, here's the latest updates from our various sources live on the ongoing Twitter Space:
- Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago
- Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force
- Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin's Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.
MY THOUGHTS [Mario Nawfal]:
- This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin.
- We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces
- Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I commented on Friday that some think BOIL is setting up for an epic short squeeze. Here us a commentary from a month ago from twitter (Shep @sheprules) Bloomberg said ETFs holding 1/3 of total contracts.

Since then the etf BOIL did a major reverse split so if you are wondering how the price went from $3 to $60 then your chart isn't adjusted for the reverse split.

If you are looking into this you should know the Hedge Funds made this play, as they do with other etf's, to take advantage of the time decay in the futures market. It was a very good play for them. But too many got into the trade so getting out, as Shep explains, is going to be difficult.

August and September can be strong months for Natural Gas historically, with high volatility. Heat waves in North American while hurricanes cause the rigs in the Gulf to shut down down. Also, especially this year, europe will be looking at topping off storage going into winter with no Russian gas.

2024 supposedly brings more liquification trains online (supposed to be four under construction and several more waiting on permits to add to the four currently operating) which will put a higher floor under US prices.

A major reason for increased US production is better capture in the oil fields. However Baker Hughes weekly rig count shows drops of 10 to 15 active rigs every week in the oil patch. Gas rigs have not dropped. So my guess is higher demand through weather and exports will raise prices, not declining production.

For long term income plays several Royalty Trusts have a significant gas component. SJT is 100%. However, that goes on Rents and Royalties on the 1040 as ordinary income, not reduced rate dividends.

I offer this as entertainment, never as investment advice. Have a great weekend!

[JFR]

[TODAY from Mario Nawfal... Elon Musk retweeted this and said: "Best coverage of the situation I’ve seen so far is from Mario"]

As the coup continues, here's the latest updates from our various sources live on the ongoing Twitter Space:
- Worries of the Russian Nuclear Warheads moved to Belarus weeks ago
- Wagner forces continue their advance to Moscow with limited strikes by the Russian Air Force
- Reports of Putin and other officials leaving Moscow and heading to Saint Petersburg based on the movement of Military VIP aircrafts. TASS, which is Gov controlled media outlet, reported that Putin is heading to Saint Petersburg, but Putin's Press Secretary refuted those reports. It is very unusual and rare to see such a disconnect between TASS and the Kremlin.
MY THOUGHTS [Mario Nawfal]:
- This is a military coup, we can no longer dispute this, and things are moving VERY rapidly and are not looking good for Putin.
- We are seeing limited military clashes, showing likely defections among Russian forces
- Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt

Thanks for the update and the source, Pasta Boss.

A friend of mine follows that action very closely. I follow it loosely, big picture. Putin would seem to be doomed, after his foolish invasion of Ukraine. (God bless Zelensky and the Ukrainian people.) I hope whoever follows Putin as leader of Russia is a few shades more civilized.

Re the stock market and the invasion -- the whole world is interconnected now. Everything affects everything.

And for some of us, the stock market is the biggest game out there.

[Al_Dente]

............- Almost EVERYTHING right now can't be verified and should be taken with a grain of salt

Re the stock market and the invasion -- the whole world is interconnected now. Everything affects everything.

Thanks boss ..... more from mario:
Many private jets in the Moscow area are flying with no set destination.
It seems like Russia’s elite think this is the start of something huge.... and they may be fleeing.
................... [from others, not Mario:] expect a major reaction to this on Monday.

[BullBear52x]

From "It is what it is department" Everyone all eyeing dip will be bought, define "Dip", my dip is simply where RSI <30. we are not there yet.

We are currently entering a consolidation or a correction phase, will it correct in time or in price remain to be seen, Bears will sell and Bulls will sit out until new dip setup or an up trend breakout.

Intraday: Friday closed with a negative price action, a down Friday should carry the weakness into Monday. buy or sell until it fail are key principal of trend following. no trend no trade, keep it simple. Peace!

[JFR]

StockCharts announcing new features, including Rainbow charts.

Trends and turns.

I got the idea a few years back from trader Raghee Horner (I've read her books, and do recommend them), and made my own on StockCharts. As we know there are many ways to view charts. I still use Rainbows occasionally for a different look.

Like a golfer trying out a new driver, putter or wedge.

StockCharts calls them Moving Average Ribbons.


https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/samp ... llery.html

[merryme]

Thanks cat guy for the info. Everyone likes confirmation that their trade is right.
This was from last Thursday. Pop on UNG on Friday is not shown on the chart, but Friday's action rose above the blue resistance lines.
Note How supply has decreased from -276 => -17 => +45 on the tight consolidation with a [#] and [PB]. (MBoxwave indicators)

[tsf]

https://stockcharts.com/articles/mindfu ... u-919.html
Downside Targets For S&P 500 Pullback
JUNE 23, 2023 AT 08:15 PM
David Keller
...Here's another breadth indicator that just turned bearish, and it's based on point & figure charts of the Nasdaq 100 members.
...Almost all of these bearish signals over the last 18 months have preceded healthy pullbacks, and in some cases have come at the beginning of meaningful declines in price.
https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/ ... 540981.jpg

[tsf]

https://pws.blackstone.com/education-in ... age-of-ai/
Joe Zidle: A Real-World Investment in the Age of AI
By Joe Zidle June 22, 2023
...AI’s foundation is data and the infrastructure required to use it, which is one reason that leads me to believe that this isn’t a bubble.
...More data means more storage needed