06/15/2024 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 75% chances to make a higher high.

So more up!

[koolblue]

[koolblue]

What i worry about is an overbought market with a/d problems desperately in need of a correction. Then we have a Hurst cycle trough (a big one... same as the one April coming due in mid July.. Thats why the July 13th chart was `concerning`

[koolblue]

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Day 3 in a brief trading range, at a new all-time high.

MACD and its histogram are up.

Sto is maxed out.

Price is pushing the Bollinger up.

The EMAs 20, 50 and 100 are up, and in the correct order.

There are major levels of support just below.

Many positives for this trader.

It can give up the ghost at any time, and retreat, or make a new move up. It depends on when enough institutions opt for bull or bear. Presently undecided, as seen with the trading range and dojis and light volume. When the elephants run, it will be heard and seen.

Early May was trend up, as has been June, at present on a pause.

No prediction, but my bias is up. I hold some longs, ready to exit some of them at a moment's notice. I trade what I see on charts, with a casual ear on economic news.

Two hours into Friday's trading day I found nothing to get revved up about, and bailed on it. I will look at more charts and scans this weekend.

Have a good one.

[JFR]

QQQ is running well.

Ain't no dayum pause there.

All Aboard! Ha ha.

Day trades. Sure. ETF or Futures.

[tsf]

Cobra's weekend updates have been reliable, so I believe in his comment of "75% chance to make a higher high."
Charts by Cobra might suggest that some of the Big Techs still have more upside but the bull momentum may be waning.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp/8

Thank you, Cobra and the Board.
GLTA

[Trades w 2 Cats]

My version of the generic count. Next slide will make my case.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Last week 490 or so stocks in the S&P 50 did not make new all time highs, 10 did. Basically the Mag 7 now account for 30% of the market. Chattering heads claim Tim Cook unleased the largest single day buy back in several years on Friday. If you recall their big unveil of the new stuff earlier in the week looked like raw material for some South Park humor. That, I am guessing, threatened Tim's compensation package so he unleashed the cash Kraken to save his payout. The circular sales recycling game Nvidia and Microsoft are playing to pump earnings and AI positioning are well documented now. But they are out of the market until earnings. Recalling Warren Buffet, the tide is going out over the next couple of weeks so we will see how much buying at new highs is really out there. And if those three don't continue taking turns at new highs this market will not.

Someone said the call wall is now up around 5,500, and we are looking at quarterly expiration end of the week. VIX options expire Tuesday because market is closed on Wednesday. So those are my reasons for thinking we will see a W 5 up setting the stage for a 2 down of the next higher degree triggering a summer pullback.

One thing I have very much seen this spring is this market can continue to extend higher and higher. This is the highest confidence 'top is in' so far, but I will not be swinging short in advance!