08/07/2024 Market Recap

[Cobra]

For 3 days in a row, the up (green arrow) was sold (red arrow), so tomorrow should be the bears' turn to try on the downside.

If somehow bulls are miraculously able to try the 4th time tomorrow, I wouldn't expect it to be sold again.

[Cobra]

DISCLAIMER:

The trading log above is meant for myself only which main purpose is to help improving my market sense.

• My blah blah about how the market would go in the next dozens of minutes everyday in this forum, is a way to force me to focus on the market, because by speaking loud, if the prediction is wrong, I'd be embarrassed, which of course I'd like to avoid as much as possible.

• Day trading is not my strongest point. Just for the same pattern, it can repeat frequently on the 5 min chart while on daily chart it may take months to appear once and another month to know whether the idea of trading such a pattern is right or wrong THIS time, so practicing on the 5 min chart is a fastest way to learn to trade.

• Day trading inevitably would have good days and bad days, it's a part of the game. If I always have good days, it means I'm either lying or already the richest person in the world (then why I'm still trading?), so please don't blame me for making any bad calls. The log is for myself only, not meant to be followed.

[koolblue]

So whats next? Is the bottom in? Heres what history says... After a huge drop (largest in 2 years) and a vix spike to 65,we made a low at 5120 on the ES.The vix had doubled in 3 days from 16.4 to 36.8. Thats only happened 4 times in history. In every case, a retest and lower low occurred. If that happens and the new lows are less than the first vix spike low, then the bottom is in and a breadth thrust up comes next. Otherwise, its rinse, repeat. ( courtesy William Watts ). Now this is admittedly a small sample size, but a 10% decline is normal and usually happens once a year or so. I must admit i thought it would be in Sept.-Oct. but i notice the last few years we have a top in July and bottom in Sept.-Oct . A new bear market? Doubtful. There hasnt been enough time yet.

[Cobra]

So whats next? Is the bottom in? Heres what history says... After a huge drop (largest in 2 years) and a vix spike to 65,we made a low at 5120 on the ES.The vix had doubled in 3 days from 16.4 to 36.8. Thats only happened 4 times in history. In every case, a retest and lower low occurred. If that happens and the new lows are less than the first vix spike low, then the bottom is in and a breadth thrust up comes next. Otherwise, its rinse, repeat. ( courtesy William Watts ). Now this is admittedly a small sample size, but a 10% decline is normal and usually happens once a year or so. I must admit i thought it would be in Sept.-Oct. but i notice the last few years we have a top in July and bottom in Sept.-Oct . A new bear market? Doubtful. There hasnt been enough time yet.

Good info, thanks!

[koolblue]

I should add that the retest of the low and possible break can be a ways away. Its been my experience that it s usually within around 2 weeks, but anything is possible