09/03/2024 Live Update

[Cobra]

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In a range bounded by blue lines but the upper boundary has been tested several times so if bulls are able to touch the upper boundary again then breakout would be more likely.

[JFR]

ES daily.

Day 12 in this trading range.

Bulls are showing resilience. But without a breakout, eventually they will give up, and price will fall into a pullback.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Chop for a few days.

From R1, through the Pivot, through S1, down to S2.

And there it finds support.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

That is weird looking price action.

Crawling along the bottom, after a strong move down.

My bias says edge to the bears so far today.

Day trading and scalping ES, I have no preference, bull or bear plays.

For individual stocks I prefer long.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2024/09 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Ueda San submitted a paper to the appropriate committee today showing why BoJ expects to continue raising rates. What is Aunt Janet going to do to finance the deficit? If you are bullish on US Dollar best to put me on ignore!

From X - https://x.com/brett_eth/status/1830954409649443064 So he looked at 4 cutting cycles by the Fed with similar unemployment, 2/10 rate inversion etc. Average was 25 days of gains (7% up) after the rate cut announcement (we are currently 15 days away from that) followed by 13 months of decline. ( 50%)I would argue that this will be more sever because of the extreme deficit spending on the Federal side coupled with Japan raising rates added to the Commercial Real Estate Crisis that is about to blow up most mid sized US banks. Lets not forget the upcoming US election where people will get to vote for the largest tax increases in over 100 years.

During the 2000 crisis I was too terrified to trade the waterfall declines with their unbelievable super violent reversals. I spent months back testing mechanical systems that would work in that environment and of course never found one. Thanks to this forum and other experiences I believe I am ready for the challenge. I do feel like I am riding the lift to the top of the mountain to challenge a double black diamond route.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Well there goes mu count! If they don't turn this around soon we are looking like a top could be in.

[Cobra]

No sharp rebound in the next couple of bars then it's a downtrend day. Although most downtrend days would have a sharp rebound before the close.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Gamma Labs saying on X that dealer gamma now negative with VIX over 18. They claim delta hedging desks are bracing for 5,500.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 12:03 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2024/09 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Breakdown is more likely than a double bottom here.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Ok, you can see why Gamma Labs said volatility hedgers are bracing for 5,500. If we drop into the void we should drop hard. And why not, if in fact the AI bubble has popped.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

I highlighted the last couple of reversal points with horizontal magenta lines. They really need to get this reversed or they will be writing about a not so good Tuesday. Negative Gamma of course means the options market makers are selling the underlying as they take on more puts because of risk management rules.

[jademann]

Down the whole month of September? I think it needs to.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Gamma Labs put up their chart, Each bar is an options strike. 560 is the turn from positive to negative.Their point being that at these levels selling forces more selling.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:33 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2024/09 ... ay-update/

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Wow,once the 0DTE options closed out at 3:30 into the gap we went. All the carry trade and all the options leverage unwinding on the Mag 7could mean this is just a taste of the collapse or a heck of an opportunity, We will find out in a day or two.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 3:53 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2024/09 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

Well, guess that's it for today. Here's what Wednesday tomorrow looks like: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381

Thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

Before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449381