04/26/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

UP 1 week, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 77% chances to make a higher high.

So more up.

[JFR]

SPY daily.

Up, up and away. Maybe.

MACD, Histogram and Sto up.

Candles doing a fast stair-climb.

Above the EMA 20.

Below the EMAs 50 and 100.

Volume is normal.

The bias is up to a very small degree, but ...

Spontaneous, contradictory comments in the media spike the market up and down.

The economy moves slower, and is at great risk, with much damage already baked in.

Be wary. Be careful.

[tsf]

Thank you, Cobra and all forum contributors for sharing your short-term market views.

Some of you might be insterested in this opinion piece from the Deustche Bank:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/9-ways-t ... ?.tsrc=rss

Deutsche Bank analyst Vipul Chadha identified nine specific headwinds impacting S&P 500 earnings, primarily due to the escalating trade war and tariffs, particularly with China.
1. Decline in exports and imports with China
2. Lower oil prices
3. Increased consumer prices
4. Slower economic growth
5. Persistent uncertainty
6. Uncertainty about the precise magnitudes of impact
7. Potential for unexpected changes
8. Impact on specific industries
9. Potential for cost shifting by suppliers

[tsf]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bond- ... _bulletins

Opinion: ‘Bond king’ Jeffrey Gundlach predicts our next financial hangover — and it’s sobering

Easy money was never meant to last forever:
Expect a 4% return on cash, 5% on bonds and 6% from stocks.

Gundlach admitted tariffs might help temporarily bring some manufacturing jobs home, but they’ll also raise prices on the cars and other goods these workers are supposed to build. It’s economic irony at its cruelest — like robbing Peter to pay Paul, then charging Paul twice as much.

[te_fern]

Before the end of the weekend, please take a little time to vote for Cobra, thanks: https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/ ... /533449377