05/21/2025 Live Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list HERE. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

• Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, Please subscribe my Daily Market Report.

• Personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.

• Please no direct link to your personal web site or blog. You must post rich contents here. You can, however, put link to your personal web site or blog as your signature.

• I'm very busy during the trading hour, so your question posted on board might not be answered. For a guaranteed answer to your question please send email to [email protected].

===============================================================================================================================

Double bottom or not, wait and see. Breakdown would be the very first lower low which is the very first crack.

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:00 am
https://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2025/0 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

It's a morning hourly hollow red

[te_fern]

SPX has stayed in the channel until now. It is back testing the bottom line. If it doesn't get back into the channel may have some more down!

[te_fern]

Back in the channel...

[te_fern]

Whipsawing around the resistance line..

[JFR]

ES daily.

The trend is still up.

But lower open, high, low and close.

Sideways. No progress.

The top is very close.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes.

Down and down.

Down from R1, through the Pivot, and through S1.

At S1, it finds some support, and forms a bottom.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

Sideways action.

No Man's Land.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Flattish ABC still grinding away. Getting close to the minimum suggested Fib level for a wave 4

[Trades w 2 Cats]

The week so far. Not saying Bob Farrel's 10 rules are always correct but hey Goldman says Monday was a super big record for retail investors, they were a third of the volume. Bob Farrel said retail tends to buy the most at tops.

[BullBear52x]

Last buy failed, now there is a little crack on here. next rip will be sold on swing setup.

Intraday: insideday, anything goes until new LL pops to say bears are making a move.

[Cobra]

Maybe the low was in for today.

[JFR]

News ...

I don't usually pay all that much attention to market news; I mostly follow the charts. But in these times of tariffs, changes and uncertainty, it is essential.

Although I studied Economics in college, I always found relations between the bond yield, price, the stock market and the economy murky and complicated. This article does a nice job of trying to sort it all out.

https://www.reuters.com/business/financ ... 0to%205%25.

NEW YORK, May 20 (Reuters) - Moody's U.S. debt downgrade is raising concerns that investors could reevaluate their appetite for U.S. government bonds, with the potential for rising yields to put pressure on stocks that are trading at elevated valuations.
Moody's decision to downgrade the U.S. debt rating by a notch late last week due to mounting government debt and rising interest expenses has rekindled fears of a broader investor reappraisal of U.S. sovereign debt, which could drive up borrowing costs across the economy.

"Every time something like this happens, investors just think maybe they should shift a little more out of the U.S.," said Campe Goodman, fixed-income portfolio manager at Wellington Management Company.
Benchmark 10-year yields, which influence mortgage rates as well as borrowing costs for companies and consumers, rose to over 4.5% early on Monday but the selloff then moderated. Yields move inversely to prices. On Tuesday, the bond market selloff continued, with the 10-year yield last seen at 4.48%, slightly above where it closed on Monday.
Longer-dated 30-year yields rose more sharply, hitting a high of over 5% on Monday, the highest since November 2023, and flirting with that level again on Tuesday.

Higher yields have repercussions for stocks, analysts and investors say, as they represent higher borrowing costs for companies as well as greater investment competition from fixed income.
Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, said a rise in 10-year yields beyond 4.5% could be a headwind for stocks. "I think what markets are grappling with, is if the 30-year is breaking out, does that mean the rest of the curve is next?" Miskin said.
Over the past few years, stocks have come under pressure during some instances when Treasury yields moved above 4.5%, with sharply rising yields often negatively correlated with stock performance. One prominent example is late 2023 when the S&P 500 slid sharply as the 10-year yield ascended to 5%.
In a note on Monday, Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson said 4.5% on the 10-year yield has been "an important level" for equity market valuation over the past two years, with stocks tending to face valuation pressure when 10-year yields breach that threshold.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

JFR- thanks for the bond news. The Japanese bond market is blowing up as well. So two central banks having big trouble.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes.

A breakout. It could just as easily fall right back under the line it just broached.

[JFR]

JFR- thanks for the bond news. The Japanese bond market is blowing up as well. So two central banks having big trouble.

You are welcome, Cats.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

From my X feed, another take on the Bond Market-

Julie Wade
@julie_wade
·
43m
Replying to @julie_wade

@Monetaryguy589
and @yieldsearcher
Overnight repo has been drained. Foreign demand for Treasuries is collapsing—not out of fear, but because the rules of the game are being rewritten.

Foreign central banks aren’t fleeing the dollar—they’re repositioning. Outflows from Treasuries are being met with rotations into gold and U.S. equities, not because they distrust U.S. credit, but because Trump is dismantling the Fed-driven global liquidity regime and asserting Treasury control over dollar distribution.

This isn’t Fed mismanagement. It’s a strategic realignment. A deliberate shift away from debt-based dollar instruments and toward asset-based ones—gold for collateral, equities for participation.

Trump isn’t trying to stabilize the old system. He’s replacing it. Foreign CBs know it, and markets are adjusting accordingly.

h/t @Section31ops
@yieldsearcher

[BullBear52x]

The street wisdom: to sound smart talks like a bear, to make money trade like a bull.

[grandeG]

Still haven’t cracked 6000. Seems so close yet so far away. We still have the looming ES gap right below us that could easily be filled by the middle of next week.