04/11/2026 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Up 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 54% chances to close up, 76% chances to make a higher high.

So, more up.

[Trades w 2 Cats]

Take your pick. At this point they both look good. Price will show us the way. The gap fills the up move is invalid. Although that extended ABS means the soap opera can grind on for a while.

[BullBear52x]

"It is what it is department"The question today will be "what time frame is your trade"
A daily trend following is sell the rip. this rip will be sold. while momentum is good, short term is bullish and very overbought. ( RSI(5) <70 = trigger)

Swing setup is at the border line, make or break on the buy side, it's weak but not a reason to sell until next rip if it fails, simple rule.

Intraday: we had a negative price action on Friday, cautious but not deep enough for me to see it as a bearish reversal, based on Fib measurement. so...we will know before market open of where 'the power that be' will take us. keep it simple.

[BullBear52x]

Chart pattern, Megaphone is showing here. volatile, complicate season for the TA analysis, if the kitchen is too hot then get outside, they said. LOL

[BullBear52x]

Throw in a Wyckoff, we are in distribution side, I think. (guessing)

[Trades w 2 Cats]

According to Citadel reposed info we are done with distribution to retail. They stopped buying the dips. Julie Wade on X has been saying the sovereign wealth funds have been selling and repatriating back to euro zone. The evil site repeating other sources that the mechanical funds were selling but are now buying.

All I know is that the 21 ATR on the 2,000 tick ES chart in the past ran 8 to 12 after the open. The last several months it never got down to 12. This week it did. So I see things cooling off fast, in the rear view mirror.

The CL contract for west Texas crude opens at 5 pm central tonight I think. Weather out here in the SoCal desert is cold and rainy by local standards. Thinking I will get my popcorn and watch the CL show instead of sitting around the pool! ( Ha Ha ) After they squeezed the stuffing out of the longs based on verbal comments I am wondering how fast the shorts will try to get out and how quickly the spec longs will reestablish.