12/05/2011 Intraday Watering

[Mongoose]

To add a couple things to this weeks calendar layered with Cobras TA --
the dollar auction with the new lower rates starts on wednesday the 7th -- Greece is expected to approve its 2012 budget cuts also on the 7th -- if Greece doesnt pass it, they dont get paid.
Thursday the ECB meets and it is "expected" a 25 point cut in rates (maybe 50?) -- so if Zero, there is going to be some disappointment. reviewing the mfg data that came out, the ECB better lower it by at least 50 bps.

And Friday the 9th the EU summit

This is the last week before the EU and the ECB meet this year (there is a Euro Sovereign Debt Crisis thats been going on for 4 years - they dont want that to interfere with their winter holiday. Why take care of it this year, when they can take care of it next year?

Place your trades accordingly And your stops --

December 9 also happens to be "International Anti-Corruption Day".
http://www.un.org/en/events/anticorruptionday/

Good luck trading.

[Me XMan]

Gonna go clown long $127.05

[SB73]

There is a real beauty to the method here regarding the gaps. All of the short term indicators go overbought from the beginning then the conditions wear off and you are ready for another huge bounce the next day.

[Cobra]

hopefully this kind of consolidation would bring a breakout eventually. Let's say 50 to 50 chances.

I said 100% of breakout (could be either side, up/down).

to me:

break on the upside is "breakout".
break on the downside is "breakdown".

Someone please correct my English. I'm still learning. My daughter would soon be able to correct my English but still not now.

This is from "Technical Analysis" by Kirkpatrick / Dahlquist. From this, the proper English usage would be :
"A breakout of support" , meaning a bearish move, and
"A breakout of resistance" , meaning a bullish move.
Hope this helps. This is the usage I include in notes on my charts.

Breakout text.png

Got you, thanks.

[Me XMan]

I think this week is as important like last week and da bulls won't let Merkozy down.

There is a real beauty to the method here regarding the gaps. All of the short term indicators go overbought from the beginning then the conditions wear off and you are ready for another huge bounce the next day.

[Cobra]

so far the breakout holds well, but the other assets are down slowly. I'm a little little bearish biased now or I shall say, I have a little doubt now. That said, I'm long, I gave the target this morning and a moment ago and I maintain those targets., so don't get me wrong.

[Al_Dente]

Internals
Note that nyadv did not confirm that last spy high at 1:00ET, but please DOUBLE CHECK as I am posting this in haste
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15

[BullBear52x]

Here's my original internals. Sell o yay

[uempel]

Yeah, it's volume....

Al_ Dente, I always refer to EDT/NY, it's Greenwich minus 5 or CET minus 6. It's also the time which is on stockcharts... By the way: I asked you before, what is that vertical in your 1 min chart, the orange one

Orange line: don’t know what u mean… please clarify...happy to tell u if i can figure out what yr referring to...
If it is on the CURRENT minute it’s just stockcharts wacko yellowish/orangish dotted vertical (not mine) indicating current minute???.
Anyone?.....

this orange vertical line

[Dow Trader]

Today's price action and pattern so far in 5-min Dow

are you still short dowtrader? i had a lot of confidence in my short on friday because of you... jk

yes I am short in my long term account and long today at 1255.00 today for swing and holding so far ( you can check my blog for today's long positions )

Can you repost the link...I failed to save last time I saw it

http://easytrades50.blogspot.com/

[Cobra]

support and the evil plan for fun because it's boring. lunch time, will be back!

[cougar]

However, during this "rally" VIX is surprisingly strong.

[BullBear52x]

Yeah, it's volume....

Al_ Dente, I always refer to EDT/NY, it's Greenwich minus 5 or CET minus 6. It's also the time which is on stockcharts... By the way: I asked you before, what is that vertical in your 1 min chart, the orange one

Orange line: don’t know what u mean… please clarify...happy to tell u if i can figure out what yr referring to...
If it is on the CURRENT minute it’s just stockcharts wacko yellowish/orangish dotted vertical (not mine) indicating current minute???.
Anyone?.....

this orange vertical line

I got it right after you mentioned it

[Al_Dente]

what is that vertical in your 1 min chart, the orange one

Orange line: don’t know what u mean… please clarify...happy to tell u if i can figure out what yr referring to...
If it is on the CURRENT minute it’s just stockcharts wacko yellowish/orangish dotted vertical (not mine) indicating current minute???.
Anyone?.....

Ahh, I found out, it's volume. Volume is always lagging behind and the orange vertical shows the delay...

hmmmmm
i have a faded horizontal not vertical gold-ish line on volume at 1,000,000 (at the base of spy, inside the spy chart), just so I can pay attention to
1 million share volume spikes on a 1 min timeframe.
Is that what u mean??
PS: I get a bit lazy with volume, as Cobra spots it and calls it out IMMEDIATELY.

[BullBear52x]

However, during this "rally" VIX is surprisingly strong.

crazy world

[heavenskrow]

Daily ES

[HighRev]

When referring to patterns, like a triangle for example, I might say breakout when it breaks down, but normally I'll say breakdown out of a triangle.

When referring to support and resistance, a breakout for me is a break higher through resistance, and a breakdown is a break lower below support.

I'm pretty sure that is the most common usage (correct English is most often thought of as what most people say, and remember, languages - especially English - are dynamic and constantly changing and what most people may have said even 20 or 30 years ago can be very different from what we say today).

[Al_Dente]

PAGING GOLD BUGS
Ignore intraday GLD for the moment.
Glance at how metals currently correlate with SPX. As recently as August, gold was 0% negatively correlated with SPX (moving inverse to SPX), today it correlates at a very positive 92% (moves near exactly with SPX). Note: perfect positive correlation is 100%, zilch negative correlation is 0%, anything above 50% is considered positive correlation, etc…. ($DJUSIM is industrial metals, note its more “stable” correlation)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p ... =248615144

And weekly $GOLD viewed with TIP (TIPS = a measure of inflation expectations) shows that TIP is calling GOLD to resume its rally any time now.
(Inverted dollar is the green dotted line behind $GOLD).......Challenges from the board are encouraged.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD& ... =248407666

PS: dcurban1: I apologize if you have covered this in your links this morn, I just haven’t made it over to yr blog yet. Please consider posting a short summary here?? (just a respectful suggestion, that’s all).

[uempel]

Well, bears tried to pull the market down a wee bit, but they failed miserably and now it's back to sideways...

[StrikePrice]

Reminder in this final month of trading for 2011:

SPX closed 2010: 1,257.64
SPY closed 2010: 125.72
Dow closed 2010: 11,577.51

There is plenty of room on daily or longer momentum indicators to keep these positive for the year. Personally I'm fighting my bearish bias with the longest time-frame I watch, my 8-day chart.