12/15/2011 Intraday Watering

[bushwaffle]

My newest song, if you're bored.

http://www.reverbnation.com/play_now/song_11355477

[Cobra]

the 2ne leg up is (was) strong, so I believe the pullback would fail again, we have at least another up.

[bushwaffle]

Bushwaffle- your prediction is interesting. I'm trying to make sense of your chart with the circles, and how you arrived at at a low of 121(ish)

I was looking more at 120 as a spot to cover.. wondering how you use those circles (are they fib circles?) and what your rationale is behind 121 as the low

Yes fibs, 121 is slightly above the confluence of both fans, time cycle, and middle of the 50%-61.8% arc void.

[Cobra]

before you happily calling for bulls and santa rally, please don't forget QQQ is weak, usually this is a bad sign.

[Al_Dente]

nice baby squeeze SLV lasted all of three minutes, out early at double top bcuz The Baron told me to sell all double tops

[tiki]

Bushwaffle- your prediction is interesting. I'm trying to make sense of your chart with the circles, and how you arrived at at a low of 121(ish)

I was looking more at 120 as a spot to cover.. wondering how you use those circles (are they fib circles?) and what your rationale is behind 121 as the low

Yes fibs, 121 is slightly above the confluence of both fans, time cycle, and middle of the 50%-61.8% arc void.

Ah I see now- that would all come together right at 121.12.

I'm interested to see what happens there. Have never used fib circles myself..

[Cobra]

Hello Cobra,

Is there any function to show the posts only from someone, like the post from Cobra?

Thanks
edpypf

Hey Edpy-

I posted this yesterday- use it all the time

Cobra Only:

-------
Oh, since I am posting for the first time in the forum today- I have a offering:

I use this URL to scan all of Cobra's postings for the day:

search.php?keywords=&terms=all&author=cobra&sc=1&sf=all&sr=posts&sk=t&sd=d&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search

.. it works nicely if I don't have time to read through all the posts and just need a quick dose of the Cobra


short version:

http://tinyurl.com/brd5uce

hmm, nice, thanks.

[Petsamo]

RIMM has a double bottom, created between yesterday and today. RIMM reports earnings after hours. I should go long, but I generally don't play earnings.

[uempel]

sorry, very busy today, so might not much update from now on. I don't have much faith on the current rebound because it's already 2 legged, now facing some resistances.

Cobra, some visitors want to copy you move by move... Perhaps you should tell them that trading is a learning process in which TA and personality is significant. Copying you - come on, that would be like wiggling around and searching for Martian gases on our planet Earth...

[uempel]

sorry, very busy today, so might not much update from now on. I don't have much faith on the current rebound because it's already 2 legged, now facing some resistances.

Cobra, some visitors want to copy you move by move... Perhaps you should tell them that trading is a learning process in which TA and personality are significant. Copying you - come on, that would be like wiggling around and searching for Martian gases on our planet Earth...

[Cobra]

OK, the 1st score I made. Let's see the 2nd score which is the key, if cannot make another higher high then bulls are over for today. Let's wait.

[BullBear52x]

If Vix can hold above 25 today, bears should have a good day tomorrow.

[HighRev]

Good morning to everyone on the U.S. side of the pond.

Cobra, I asked you a question about the Hindenburg late last night/early this morning in Market Outlook that you may have missed. http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2011/12 ... -387145325

Thanks for getting back to me on that when you've got a chance.

I don't have my notes in front of me but a Hindenburg Omen needs a second or third within a few days as confirmation.

People look at it as foreshadowing a crash but in reality the Hindenburg Omen is a signal that the underlying market is showing significant weakness and rolling over while a few remaining issues push higher.

Yeah, according to the Wikipedia page Cobra linked to in Market Outlook, the second signal needs to come with 30 days of the first. I don't remember exactly when the last signal was or if it was even valid - looking at the chart posted, it's not clear, and if my memory serves me right, Cobra wasn't sure if it was a good or bad signal. So the "first" signal, even if it were in the 30 day window, might not have been valid to begin with. But yesterday certainly looks valid. Cobra also mentioned the ETF issue putting into question the fundamental premise of the Hindenburg. Anyway, all these questions are what I'm looking for help with in clarifying. Was the first invalid or happened much longer ago than I remember? Does this one need another to confirm? Are they both good, but it's just that the metrics for the signal are no longer as valid as they once were so that now the indicator might not be worth trusting?

I think it's certainly not to be taken lightly as any indicator that gives you a view of underlying weakness as the market rises away from the mean has got to be valued (and the inverse as well). The question is just how much value there is in any given indicator . . .

[Al_Dente]

PAGING Baron von Grinch
Don’t fall in love with that TICK. She can be sooooo fickle and cruel. When she crosses her centerline it can be just a correction, not necessarily a trend change. When the correction is over, she’ll flop right back across her zero line. I’m still testing for a better way to use her reliably for signaling turns good for multiple days, but tinker with this revised tick-guideline-setting that is not so wanky, it stays underwater when spy does (eg: last four days underwater), and crosses above zero when spy does BUT IT LAGS. (old guideline in pink, new guideline in blue).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TICK& ... =250567739

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzXKWKax ... re=related

PAGING Bushie: REALLY nice song. r u on vocals…guitar…drums???

[CognitiveDissonance]

If Vix can hold above 25 today, bears should have a good day tomorrow.

Here's the happy VIX chart...lots of resistance...only the weekly showing somewhat of a bounce. It just doesn't want to go up right now.

[BullBear52x]

once /ES bear flag falls, it will be fast. got your seat belt on bears.

[tapesense]

Whoa Bushwaffle is ready for the big time! Nice one

[BullBear52x]

If Vix can hold above 25 today, bears should have a good day tomorrow.

Here's the happy VIX chart...lots of resistance...only the weekly showing somewhat of a bounce. It just doesn't want to go up right now.

yeap, lots of resistances.

[taggard]

before you happily calling for bulls and santa rally, please don't forget QQQ is weak, usually this is a bad sign.

minor observation--the formal period for the santa (claws) rally is between Christmas and New Years.

using 10 and 30 mas of the nyse ad line (as over bot over sold) (the 10 is fairly close to nymo--and the 30 some what close to nysi both on stock charts.i like a stock rsi on nysi as it is a pain to read (for me) otherwise.) you wind up with "if next week 19 to 23 is somewhat lame (eg doesn't have to be bad but sort of range bound with a few negative days) things will in fact set up for the period dec 26th to jan 6.

obviously these 10/30 mas are speculative in nature--but they often give very nice context for the action.

if things start to look better in here thur/friday then it gets harder to say. the major logic behind runs up or at least not caving during the claws rally is the idea that mostly pros are done for the year and hedged. thus selling is limited as cobra likes to say in thin markets selling is often limited. and while this is becoming almost shrill--there are the political factors re euro banks and year end accounting.

i am not a screaming bull just cautious about a serious sell in a thin market when everyone needs it up.

[DRL]

Longer term (coming 30 days) it appears to me a symetrical triangle is forming. Using the trendlines from July Highs and from the Oct lows, a triangle forms with an apex mid-Jan 2012. Not to say it will take that long to break, but that seems the likely scenario going forward for the coming month. The downward pressure from Eurozone combined with the Santa rally effect, will likely see the market go sideways in this trinagle until breaking after the new year. Of course it could break either way at any time.

My bias is it will break down, but only time will tell. Other thoughts /comments??