01/19/2012 Intraday Watering

[99er]

Daily Updates

Dollar http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/152
30-Year http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/144

[cougar]

TraderGirl: R U in?

[Mr. BachNut]

Pilot Short in a coma and near death.
Yesterday was a decisive close above the big declining tops line (S&P).
Pilot Short was structured anticipating resistances holding and triggering a turn or correction. Didn't work.
Signs that a top is close are increasing, but the market is behaving like a bull market with bullish resolutions to technical challenges.
I have got an intraday NYMO reading nicking overbought levels. Also, a close in the e-mini S&P future > 1302.50 would complete a Tom DeMark Sequential Sell Setup (the cash indexes not there yet).
So, still looks like a correction or something is imminent, but Mr. Market doing a good job of offing Pilot Short before letting it loose.

[wayne0708]

ChiOsc a little too high now, could be 4 hours pullback.

It is nice to see you mentioning chiOsc! it's been such a long time.

[Cobra]

not a good looking hourly bar plus ChiOsc still too high and RSI negative divergence. still think a reset here is needed.

[SWalsh]

this market doesn't want to go down. enough said.

Think the PTB want it up? Let me remind people that this administration said it wanted all speculators out and only long-term investors in!

To reply to 57Chevy, wave 3 moves do not act like that in a channel without it having wave 3 take the channel much wider. So this should be a corrective move. But we haven't a real impulse move since the 666 low so what are we correcting?

I think I became more jaded about systems and methods that used to work after seeing that 60 minute piece!

Any questions on what just happened here? That massive computer bid/buy was out of nowhere. So why did it happen? I do not have the answer:

[Cobra]

ChiOsc a little too high now, could be 4 hours pullback.

It is nice to see you mentioning chiOsc! it's been such a long time.

at the very beginning of the trend, ChiOsc simply doesn't work. but now the trend is mature, so ChiOsc should work. Let's see.

[TraderGirl]

TraderGirl: R U in?

Wish I were in, but no, if we get a down move in the market, maybe it would be a good time. I think this thing is bottoming out...

[Al_Dente]

PAGING RHIGHT
Thanks rhight. Try testing ADX 8 with HL 25 (courtesy linda ratschke…. spelling??). GL 2 U

PAGING SB73
SB: continued fm yest…re rules
U familiar w Dennis Gartman’s rules? Love him/hate him, he does have a decent list. Plus it’s interesting to peek at someone elses rules,
especially the guys who’ve survived 30+ years in mkts
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/rules.html

[BullBear52x]

look at Trin divergence here almost there but I'll stick to my price pattern these internals crap distract me for a whole week.

this is what works

[Cobra]

look at Trin divergence here almost there but I'll stick to my price pattern these internals crap distract me for a whole week.

spy.JPG

this is what works

spx.JPG

the divergence is huge everywhere but it's very hard to time the divergence.

[SWalsh]

Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

[BullBear52x]

The easier time for bears is close well after 50 spx points LOL....

[noob]

look at Trin divergence here almost there but I'll stick to my price pattern these internals crap distract me for a whole week.

spy.JPG

this is what works

spx.JPG

the divergence is huge everywhere but it's very hard to time the divergence.

Hovering here means continuation? Cannot believe!

[jarbo456]

Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

muni quotes are showing money flows into FI as well. in fact, i'm taking off some of my muni trades early even with the high tax free coupons. it just makes sense at this point.

[99er]

Update

SPX http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/162

Attention all skiers...breakfast is served.

[Al_Dente]

Glance at the recovery rally coming out of the March 2009 low, you can count the daily candlesticks and note how the rally progressed until encountering a significant correction, see in the second panel the confirmation/negative divergence offered by bonds and the dollar during that time period, and see how/when they “realigned”. Then u might compare the default RSI then to the RSI now, on your own daily charts….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =244427973

Note the similarities/differences in SPY coming off the 2011 correction. See the three month roller-coaster (including the failure at the double top 9 Aug) until SPY finally conquered the 200ma and went on to confirm with the breakout above the Inverted Head & Shoulder neckline in mid Sept 2011.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... =254260180

“Steal” these charts, plug in your favorite indicator(s) and compare them with today. Please post any astonishing revelations. I am NOT saying that this time is the same/different….Both times it could have gone either way, what was it that made the difference?
I recall in 2009 it was sheer exhaustion, QE1, Paulson’s TARP, the demise of mark-to-market accounting, the whales bottom feeding (Soros, Buffett,
et. al.), “Sovereign Funds” crawling out of the woodwork, etc etc…. But I forget what it was in 2011 that finally turned the tide from bear to bull ???
(There is 100% certainty that both times had at minimum one feature in common: massive short covering).

Equal time fairness rule: revise the dates and study the past few tops compared to today. If/when we get bad news and the short covering comes to a halt, this could prove to be a significant top.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…we were all going direct to heaven…………” [Charles Dickens, Tale of Two Cities, 1859]

[toplight]

look at Trin divergence here almost there but I'll stick to my price pattern these internals crap distract me for a whole week.

spy.JPG

this is what works

spx.JPG

the divergence is huge everywhere but it's very hard to time the divergence.

if the mkt up another 1.5% today, would the divergence be resolved?

[Carlos]

This thing is defying gravity... Hard to time the fall.. Should I be short?

[cougar]

Quote from my buddy on the GS bond desk...

"What’s bizarre about this whole thing is that munis have been on a TEAR. We’ve seen some SERIOUS spread compression. Before I left for FL [this was the beginning of December] one needed to go out 5 years to 2017 to get 1% AAA yield. Now, you have to go to 2019 to go north of 1%. That is INSANE, even with the rolldown….its just bizarre to see both equities and FI rally like this."

They appear to be pushing money into equities. This is central planning attempted in most strident way we have ever seen. Eventually, blowback might be a bitch. I have no doubt the Commander-in-Thief thinks he is an economic genius and that the Dow reflects the economy.

Well, yes, it is! But how do you trade that right now?