01/19/2012 Intraday Watering

[SWalsh]

the demise of mark-to-market accounting

That was HUGE to the start of the rally, and they didn't exactly make it public. The banks were also fed money and in a clear quid pro quo, and bought stocks knowing they would have any losses put on the Fed's books. I don't believe SPX ever sees 4 digits without the banks being told they may have two sets of books. In April of 2009 James Grant's Interest Rate Observer showed that GE was bankrupt but being allowed to hold (I think) $34 billion in losses off the balance sheet.

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness… it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…we were all going direct to heaven…………” [Charles Dickens, Tale of Two Cities, 1859]

Ringing a bell, isn't it?

I'm going to look at Hussman's latest commentary later. The last I recall, he was quite bearish. That guy Rosenberg, the economist who left Merrill for a Canadian firm, has been awful only because he is not allowed to see a freely traded market. The "It's Different This Time" is that it is not the public driving the mkt higher. TrimTabs says the public is redeeming money at rapid paces and the mkt is being bought by firms with the sale of bonds to fund purchases.

So both economists, as opposed to the shills on CNBS, are essentially saying the market has nothing to do with reality and valuation anymore. Absent a turn in housing, which I don't see soon, history says fundamentals win. I might go long at times, but it's via options. I saw what happened during 1987 and how you couldn't get your money out of firms and specialists had their lines of credits slashed. And at $850 gold was going to at least $1000. Then they changed the rules and ruined COMEX for years. I actually don't think it ever recovered and was assimilated (stolen) into the NY MERC.

VIX says no risk being long.

[SB73]

Since I don't know squat about elliot wave or at least enough to ever produce any semblance of a count here is a question. If this is Wave III why so many divergences? I thought Wave V established the divergences.

[TWT]

INTC : a large Ending Diagonal ?

[SB73]

Upper bollinger on SPY 131.65...still holding long hedge stop now 131.39.

[tdo722]

INTC : a large Ending Diagonal ?

TWT, I got a question I want to ask you.

1st wave=3rd wave is at 1315
61.8% 1st wave=3rdwave is at 1310

These numbers seem okay to you?

[SB73]

Since I don't know squat about elliot wave or at least enough to ever produce any semblance of a count here is a question. If this is Wave III why so many divergences? I thought Wave V established the divergences.

Paging TWT...please help me on this one.

[SWalsh]

This market seems to be running on a secret QE. Obama needs to get relected ===> SPX 1500

Quite likely. I had commented at SPX 850 that we could see 1000 based upon his desire to pass health care as bitching about portfolios would be a problem.

[janez]

is the tide finally turning?

[Cobra]

dashed line is the wedge target. I don't believe this target yet. Any pullback that is not sharp is not bear attack.

[99er]

Update

AUDJPY http://www.99ercharts.com/archives/164

One helluva gondola ride that!

[Mr. BachNut]

PAGING MR BACHNUT
How do you get NYMO intraday? thanks

PAGING SB73
Nyadv nosebleed zone is >2800
She cant even get above 2000 yet…..
Thanks for askin

I have a data subscription to Worden TC2000. When I update the data intraday, it calculates a McClellan Oscillator. Over the course of the day, it tracks into the closing data pretty well. It has been useful on occasion intraday on a reversal day to see an overextended condition that is not apparent in the closing data. At the moment, it is not looking like today is going to be a reversal day.

The scales on the TC2000 calculation are different than McClellans and I think the set of stocks may be different too but the conclusions are the same. As of now, the calculation is now comfortably in the overbought zone if an afternoon sell off doesn't cool it off. Last three times it was at these levels was end of June '11 (S&P was about where it is now climbed another 30 points or so over four days and then rolled), end of August '11 (about 25 points more climb over 2 days than descent into October low) and lastly mid to late October '11 (continued climb much higher over 2 weeks or so). So, probability of a turn any day now is good but unfortunately a rush for a final 20-30 points is not out of the question either.

[Denali92]

I hope this is a small wedge. overall, no point to fight the trend although I do find it's unbelievable.

This just a severe opex squeeze that will revert.... it could be Sep 2011 or Feb 2011 all over again where we squeezed and squeezed and got more and more hourly OB - we will eventually pullback or if it is like those two months - then it will be more than a pullback.... When hourly OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri of opex, there are ALWAYS pullbacks of some significance - a lot of the time we then bottom on the Monday, but will let you know that on your market outlook comments page.....

Just added my 2nd (of 3) levels of shorts here (the first one was at the close last night....)

Opex week does like to cause pain.....

-D

Denali

I have always appreciated your perspective. Where would the 3rd entry occur and where would you stop the bleeding?

3rd Level for me is tomorrow on the open if we are higher and still hourly OB - when that situation occurs it is almost ALWAYS a RED opex day - for now, I do not have a stop as this is a mean reverting trade.... I will enter the stop when we are no longer hourly OB and when that occurs the stop will be about 10 SPX points on a trailing basis...

My expectation is that we should trade in to at least last Friday's l;evels, and more likely a bit lower than that.... just check Feb 2011, Apr 2011 and Sep 2011 for reference as those are opex weeks where we got hourly OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri.

-D

[TraderGirl]

VIX sitting on lower BB, last several times it bounced... let's see what happens...

Btw, I am making a prediction...if DJT gets to around 5650-5700 (I am guessing it will get there around June 2012) the market will have another major correction... Let's hope...

[Al_Dente]

PAGING JOEYNICKELS
Here’s messy chart with Cabot chatter on new lows…. they go on and on….just brief excerpt so I don’t forget main concept.
Also notes from other “smart cookies” below that.
Best to steal this chart, expand timeframe and see what/how it performs over longer term
good luck 2 u
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW ... =240743506

PAGING TAGGARD
Thanks for NYMO, your’re talking about using 10dma on ad ($NYAD) on DAILY CHART, yes or no?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DJpyG3PX ... re=related

[KENA]

is the tide finally turning?

Who Knows..over the the last two weeks we have a steady injection of liquidity in the mkt..Right now liquidity is hi.It can't keep on forever but it can keep the pain on going..Some day the fed may stop interfering. Wait and see.One more for the bears the # of strong stocks gaining has just about topped.

[SB73]

I have a gap down back from August at 131.80. Maybe it needs to be totally filled.

[SigmaEcho]

dashed line is the wedge target. I don't believe this target yet. Any pullback that is not sharp is not bear attack.

Hi Cobra, do you still see any edge for the evil plan? This market is really stretching it. I think even bulls have sold and waiting for pb. Skynet must be running in overdrive.

[TraderGirl]

That 1315 level was like a magnet, then the market repelled off of it, just like when we hit 1230 and 1292.... hmmm...

[SB73]

Brilliant work selloffs look like they can be pretty aggressive and erase this daily grind in a hurry. Got stopped out of my long hedge today so back to only holding shorts. Have not reapplied the money.

I hope this is a small wedge. overall, no point to fight the trend although I do find it's unbelievable.

This just a severe opex squeeze that will revert.... it could be Sep 2011 or Feb 2011 all over again where we squeezed and squeezed and got more and more hourly OB - we will eventually pullback or if it is like those two months - then it will be more than a pullback.... When hourly OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri of opex, there are ALWAYS pullbacks of some significance - a lot of the time we then bottom on the Monday, but will let you know that on your market outlook comments page.....

Just added my 2nd (of 3) levels of shorts here (the first one was at the close last night....)

Opex week does like to cause pain.....

-D

Denali

I have always appreciated your perspective. Where would the 3rd entry occur and where would you stop the bleeding?

3rd Level for me is tomorrow on the open if we are higher and still hourly OB - when that situation occurs it is almost ALWAYS a RED opex day - for now, I do not have a stop as this is a mean reverting trade.... I will enter the stop when we are no longer hourly OB and when that occurs the stop will be about 10 SPX points on a trailing basis...

My expectation is that we should trade in to at least last Friday's l;evels, and more likely a bit lower than that.... just check Feb 2011, Apr 2011 and Sep 2011 for reference as those are opex weeks where we got hourly OB on the Wed, Thurs or Fri.

-D

[SWalsh]

This looks like a rounding top and every setting I have has been diverging for 2 days. If this were reversed we would rally hard.

Al_Dente....I just got an e-mail from a friend saying Alex Jones opened saying, "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times". I toss him on from time to time for kicks. When he claims all the heads of detectives in every major city deals drugs it's hard to believe he is credible. But it's not bad schtick.