02/16/2012 Intraday Watering

[stucap]

ES 5min is hugging VWAP --- bulls should run out of steam soon.

guess upper vwap doesn't matter again. me bull. me buy.

[SigmaEcho]

Hi Cobra,

What do you think of $AEX chart?
it corrected 4 days losses in one day. Strange compared to DAX, FTSE, CAC all down (light). opex ?

thanks

[waverider]

Paging BullBear:

Since we gap up by upbeat data today, do you think the "Bearish Island Reversal" scenario is still a possibility here? Or we need to wait for the next setup?

Thanks!

Can you elaborate what you mean by "upbeat data"? The market tends to react randomly to reports, it doesn't matter whether they are good or bad.

[TraderGirl]

Senor Al,

Ended up taking two girls home last night TZA and TVIX. Already out of TZA at 18.98 (low of the day ). Stop on TVIX just below gap support. You may laught at me, but I have a target of 21.20ish triangle breakout target was 20.50 which has been met.

Just don't hold over the weekend, you might get an ugly surprise come monday morning...market up....

What does this mean that Monday's always open green? Bring me some statistics please. My gut says they have been generally bullish since March 09, but what hasn't.

Actually, it would be Tuesday, since Monday is a holiday...but there are positive astro's and cycles that indicate Feb 22/23 could represent a top. There is a new moon on the 21st and it has a strong Jupiter (positive) aspect. There is a Greek meeting on the 20th, I suppose there will be positive news coming from that meeting, but I think it will be sell the news, because we could then correct into the 29th-ish..

And, Gann360 is a very good TA, so there is a possibility we still have an inverse h&s target somewhere around 1358-1364...

[Al_Dente]

SENOR

me.

Senor, sorry
Corrected update 5m
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =257754799

[Cobra]

as long as not drop below the green line then bulls have nothing to worry.

[Cobra]

Hi Cobra,

What do you think of $AEX chart?
it corrected 4 days losses in one day. Strange compared to DAX, FTSE, CAC all down (light). opex ?

thanks

for now I don't read AEX bearish.

but the long term seems bearish because this rebound is weak than the rest of the world.

[proteus46]

EUR / USD 5 MINUTE CHART
imo, ratio will go down to 1.30199 within 24 hours

[Cobra]

this rebound better be very strong otherwise bears still get chances. let's see.

[SB73]

Anyone watching UNG 1 min chart?

You know I am...it is still in the triangle, but this guy really wants to move up. Lets see if she can clear 5.40 and hold

5.42 is my break even

I got in too, nice base until the base is broken then I will bail. I am 5 pennies ahead so far LOL.

I wonder if it's gonna stay up there or retreat. It typically drops big first, rises big, then drops to where it was originally, as if those guys are just busting stop losses on both sides for profits.

I interpret the consolidation as good.

[SB73]

SENOR

me.

Senor, sorry
Corrected update 5m
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p= ... =257754799

beautiful work thanks Al.

[TWT]

ES Globex : a stronger rebound should shape the right shoulder of a H&S reversal pattern

(thewavetrading.com)

[BullBear52x]

Paging BullBear:

Since we gap up by upbeat data today, do you think the "Bearish Island Reversal" scenario is still a possibility here? Or we need to wait for the next setup?

Thanks!

We are in consolidation phase, by definition we should trade sideways to up at the current stage we are in now, on SPY there is chance that Island reversal is still in play until a sufficient break out can be pronounced, for now I see no trend reversal unless we trade lower then last Friday's low either by trade down or gap down.

[rhight]

I may be wrong, and often am, but I'm looking at this mornings price action on SPX as a backtest of a broken TL from the 12/19 low. Over the last week 60 min TICK in a downtrend, NYUPV in a downtrend, TRIN trending bearish, USD in an uptrend. Looks tired to me beneath the surface, although price is still in a box.

[Petsamo]

I interpret the consolidation as good.

good for bulls or bears ?

[springheel_jack]

I may be wrong, and often am, but I'm looking at this mornings price action on SPX as a backtest of a broken TL from the 12/19 low. Over the last week 60 min TICK in a downtrend, NYUPV in a downtrend, TRIN trending bearish. Looks tired to me beneath the surface, although price is still in a box.

I agree. Important test here.

Wider signals a bit mixed. Copper, AAPL, Vix leaning bear. USD & bonds not so much.

I've seen new highs made after a trendline break like yesterday's. Didn't last long but this is a very important retest for today.

[Cobra]

ok, failed rebound but this also means the pullback is 2 legged already, so again if no break below green line then bulls are ok.

[FinancePhD]

Thank you very much, BullBear!!!

Paging BullBear:

Since we gap up by upbeat data today, do you think the "Bearish Island Reversal" scenario is still a possibility here? Or we need to wait for the next setup?

Thanks!

We are in consolidation phase, by definition we should trade sideways to up at the current stage we are in now, on SPY there is chance that Island reversal is still in play until a sufficient break out can be pronounced, for now I see no trend reversal unless we trade lower then last Friday's low either by trade down or gap down.

[SB73]

I interpret the consolidation as good.

good for bulls or bears ?

bulls - consolidating right below triangle and after a surge. I know if I call it bullish I am going to get a bunch of backlash from the fundamentalists.

[waverider]

Regardless of what the AAII data says, it feels like a lot of people are bullish here. People don't get bearish when the tape goes sideways, they get bearish when it goes down. What happened a few weeks ago when the data came in with a massive increase in bulls, and decrease in bears? The tape continued up. So, I don't see it as a useful indicator unless either side is at extremes...