03/05/2012 Intraday Watering

[SWalsh]

highly speculative. $VIX complex invs H&S .. mid April? to break up with conviction? or break down to new lows.

TA on VIX index is a joke, period. Just like you *can* TA on random walk.

I looked at 3 years of intraday charts and tried to use Elliott Wave on the VIX. It is complete folly and has killed many a trader. It is like charting a thinly traded stock and expecting it to not be manipulated by the largest shareholders.

[Cobra]

L2 short, let's see if this pullback could at least test the day's low. so far the rebound was weak.

[SWalsh]

Finally my line in the sand just kick in now

Looking at the SPY low of 137 it seems to say that if it exceeds that, this was only a correction.

[BullBear52x]

AAPL

[TraderGirl]

Check out IYR, has been ahead of the market in recent past....

[BullBear52x]

Check out IYR, has been ahead of the market in recent past....

Retest Mid BB on hourly bear flag, not that healthy here, I am evil this bad boy.

[btran874]

Check out IYR, has been ahead of the market in recent past....

If IYR leads then it's clearly heading toward $63-$64

[btran874]

Check out IYR, has been ahead of the market in recent past....

Thank you for the tip. I just dumped my shorts for a small profit.

[TraderGirl]

Another way of looking at it. It's all good if it holds support...IMHO

[uempel]

Check out this blue cycle (signalled with blue dots):

[BullBear52x]

You see how every thing is now pause and wait for QQQ to hit the green for relief bounce.

[bbc]

highly speculative. $VIX complex invs H&S .. mid April? to break up with conviction? or break down to new lows.

TA on VIX index is a joke, period. Just like you *can* TA on random walk.

I looked at 3 years of intraday charts and tried to use Elliott Wave on the VIX. It is complete folly and has killed many a trader. It is like charting a thinly traded stock and expecting it to not be manipulated by the largest shareholders.

no fence, but I am surprised anyone even tried. It is by design manipulable if you read the White Paper before
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

[Cobra]

not a good looking chart pattern (kind similar to descending triangle) but bears still need to seal the deal, let's see.

[SWalsh]

highly speculative. $VIX complex invs H&S .. mid April? to break up with conviction? or break down to new lows.

TA on VIX index is a joke, period. Just like you *can* TA on random walk.

I looked at 3 years of intraday charts and tried to use Elliott Wave on the VIX. It is complete folly and has killed many a trader. It is like charting a thinly traded stock and expecting it to not be manipulated by the largest shareholders.

no offence, but I am surprised anyone even tried. It is by design manipulable if you read the White Paper before
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

Thanks...I've downloaded it.

I did it for someone who was in a bad position and asked me if I could give them any good news when it was around 22 awhile back. I told them I looked at it enough to conclude that EW was 100% useless on it and that at best, breaking trendlines "might" have some indication of a trend change.

[KENA]

Looks like good news for the BEARS coming up.Fri. was dn and if we close in the red today Mon.This is a good indication of mkt turning point and top.Dn Fri and Dn Mon look for more dn.This info by Stock Traders Almanac.Wait and see.

[btran874]

I think Merriman would call it right there. Jupiter is leaving Leo. LoL!

[fehro]

... closer view of SPX 60m. bounce or break.

[jarbo456]

for those of you who trade TVIX...this was a really well put together article on what's been going on in the TVIX market...

i don't really trade the VIX ETP's, but have been trying to incorporate a more in-depth volatility analysis into my overall trading...

http://www.indexuniverse.com/sections/f ... tures.html

[trendfollower]

Article on volatility, the indexes, and gold:

http://goo.gl/F3Oyl

[bbc]

highly speculative. $VIX complex invs H&S .. mid April? to break up with conviction? or break down to new lows.

TA on VIX index is a joke, period. Just like you *can* TA on random walk.

I looked at 3 years of intraday charts and tried to use Elliott Wave on the VIX. It is complete folly and has killed many a trader. It is like charting a thinly traded stock and expecting it to not be manipulated by the largest shareholders.

no offence, but I am surprised anyone even tried. It is by design manipulable if you read the White Paper before
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixwhite.pdf

Thanks...I've downloaded it.

I did it for someone who was in a bad position and asked me if I could give them any good news when it was around 22 awhile back. I told them I looked at it enough to conclude that EW was 100% useless on it and that at best, breaking trendlines "might" have some indication of a trend change.

the key is VIX is *quoted*, not *traded*. the calculation uses *mid* price, not *bid/ask/trade*. I lose tons of money on VIX already with pure speculation (betting on black swans), but I never did TA on VIX. Historical statistics does not work well on VIX. (eg. average VIX level, average premium for active contract).