03/14/2012 Intraday Watering

[Al_Dente]

paging Dr. Al
ever place volatility ratio side by side with its index? this could be leading holy grail that you looking for.

i luv grail
please describe further

[tomsky]

2011 and 2012 Bradley turn dates.
Quick note: yellow GREEN arrows are the major turning dates and red the minor ones. I kept the orientation (up or down) from the bradley chart but keep in mind that the turn dates don't tell the direction of the move ahead, only the turning point, +/- a few days.

[Ed02]

well, hopefully, this is a bear flag. don't count on it, nowadays nothing bearish works anyway.

Cobra, does it look like a double bottom now? If so, what would be the target? Thanks.

[TWT]

SPX: A few thoughts regarding the current 3 wave-up leg

[soku]

anyone else find it strange that aapl has obviously gone parabolic - just look at the weekly chart if you can't seem to see it on the daily period - it's stretched over 40% above it's 200MA - YET the RSI is not even close to making a new high...at least 10 points from a weekly RSI high above 92...

how can that be if apple has gone parabolic?

I don't know but how about Hype and Greed.

not really a comment on the parabolic price, i'm just surprised to see a relatively muted response in the RSI.

** guess that might mean there's more room for appl to go.

per my testing, osc does not work well in a too trending market (like yesterday) or too flat market (such as today)
aapl got couple upgrades with a price target of 700+. i think it still has room to go up. the valuation is still below

[Al_Dente]

senor
I wussed out early
My girlfriend is having very hard time filling yest gap
I think yr girlfriend filled gap already?

[hiram]

2011 and 2012 Bradley turn dates.
Quick note: yellow arrows are the major turning dates and red the minor ones. I kept the orientation (up or down) from the bradley chart but keep in mind that the turn dates don't tell the direction of the move ahead, only the turning point, +/- a few days.

great chart.....+1

thanks hiram

[Cobra]

well, this kind of consolidation usually means breakout on the downside. again, I'm not sure anymore about any bear cases nowadays.

[BullBear52x]

paging Dr. Al
ever place volatility ratio side by side with its index? this could be leading holy grail that you looking for.

i luv grail
please describe further

see RSI, VIX triggered, then SPY:VIX + SPY confirmed , now is buy.

[Cobra]

well, hopefully, this is a bear flag. don't count on it, nowadays nothing bearish works anyway.

Cobra, does it look like a double bottom now? If so, what would be the target? Thanks.

even it's a double bottom, the target is too small, so I'd rather read it as consolidation.

[Cobra]

you sure can read it as double bottom on 1 min chart but the target is a little thin.

[Al_Dente]

Little diverg here
Nydec bear
Vix bear-oid
Volume flow still strong, hasn’t broken down yet

[taggard]

pearls of blundering more likely--

i am saying that there are only so many people on the planet that can afford smart phones. so the total global market in smart phones looking out a year from now--is ball park 50-60% saturated. this is both aapl and everyone else. this does not mean phones die--it means you get much smaller increases in unit volume as the sales are evolution vs revolution. smaller degrees of change going forward (the idea can be understood in the email thing with computers--this was such a huge change everyone needed a computer asap--since then changes such as twitter are simply evolution of the idea not the original evolution.

if you don't believe the valuation part--look at all products and cash and see where the margins and growth are. of course i could be wrong--but it is not currently mac/or pads. maybe it is something we cannot see yet--but from what we can see odds are the phone is the key in the next 1-2 years.

margins are huge at aapl--but decreasing sightly. in the mean time everyone who missed the point is starting to finally get on it. as best i can figure they will start to really catch up near the end of this year and in the first half of 2013. if this is true look for the market to factor this in front of the event. it's easy to laugh at intc--but they are set to exceed more's law over the next 3 chips. another wild idea is that some guys in India have put something together at the low end of smart phones for 20-25 bux. rather than fixate on the exact direction the point to consider is that aapl phones are in effect trying to hold off the whole world as we move forward.

in 1999 computer sales went parabolic--i myself got a very nice one along with windows nt. people bot these for several reasons in that time frame--but a huge burst of activity was due to the idea that Y2K (eg computers would blow up due to the date turning from 1900s to 2000. the idea was mostly absurd--but at the time everyone was talking about the idea the US gov would stop due to old mainframe code.

hence more computers than normally would have been bot in 1999 were bot and then in 2000 less were sold as a function of the prior buying.

i am suggesting that everyone is busting ass to get a smart phone this year and next as is evidenced by the projected sales and all the hype. (full disclosure--i have a dumb cell which i keep turned off so i can get something done--when i leave the house i love not being around the internet--so i could be missing the point due to age or twisted outlook. personally i find it scary to see all these people walking around in the zone looking at their phones. reality has a bigger screen and more action if you pay attention.

so summing up--i am saying that

(1) there is a limit to the total number of high end smart phones that can be sold world wide period
(2) that that limit should be hit (given the features we see now and are projected) next year at the latest.
(3) that there are other players finally starting to get going from weird ideas in india for 20 bux (low end) to intc/droid ideas that should be serious issues in 2013
(4) that as function of points 1-3 margins will drop
(5) that this same thing happened in computers about 1999-2002 time frame
(6) that with what we know now--unless aapl comes up with new stuff to maintain margins earnings growth will slow.
(7) key idea again--i like aapl--i don't buy their stuff because i don't need it-but it's nice looking and working stuff. i am not in any way suggesting the demise of the company. i am suggesting that the epic growth will slow and that will impact the stock price.

bonus point--cobra showed various companies hitting 500 billion and that being high points--now many of these were close to the market top in 2000--but ignoring that--consider his point in light of inflation. 500 billion in 1999 is likely really about 750 billion now. aapl is (hugely rounded off) worth about 100 billion for each 100 bux the stock sells for. if that is so and we adjust for inflation that puts that 500 bill idea in an overall context.

meaning--if the stock did continue up over the rest of the year (or at least till iphone 5 intro in june july--and hit 700-800 it would hit the exact inflation adjusted area other companies chilled at--at perhaps the peak hype on smart phones.

hope that helps good luck with your trading (and if you figure out how to factor aapl peak please let me know--interested maybe there is some way to do it with fib extending or something)

[jarbo456]

anyone else find it strange that aapl has obviously gone parabolic - just look at the weekly chart if you can't seem to see it on the daily period - it's stretched over 40% above it's 200MA - YET the RSI is not even close to making a new high...at least 10 points from a weekly RSI high above 92...

how can that be if apple has gone parabolic?

I don't know but how about Hype and Greed.

not really a comment on the parabolic price, i'm just surprised to see a relatively muted response in the RSI.

** guess that might mean there's more room for appl to go.

per my testing, osc does not work well in a too trending market (like yesterday) or too flat market (such as today)
aapl got couple upgrades with a price target of 700+. i think it still has room to go up. the valuation is still below

probably right...and very true oscillators tend to be unreliable in strong trend markets (divergence should be noted, but crossovers tend to be much less reliable).

backing out the cash on the balance sheet...anyone have an idea what the true valuation of apple is?

[hiram]

paging Dr. Al
ever place volatility ratio side by side with its index? this could be leading holy grail that you looking for.

i luv grail
please describe further

see RSI, VIX triggered, then SPY:VIX + SPY confirmed , now is buy.

omg i love this! ......+++++++++1

thanks hiram

p.s. i am amzed on a daily basis at how much cobra board teaches me!

[Ed02]

you sure can read it as double bottom on 1 min chart but the target is a little thin.

Thanks. This is helpful.

[jarbo456]

pearls of blundering more likely--

i am saying that there are only so many people on the planet that can afford smart phones. so the total global market in smart phones looking out a year from now--is ball park 50-60% saturated. this is both aapl and everyone else. this does not mean phones die--it means you get much smaller increases in unit volume as the sales are evolution vs revolution. smaller degrees of change going forward (the idea can be understood in the email thing with computers--this was such a huge change everyone needed a computer asap--since then changes such as twitter are simply evolution of the idea not the original evolution.

if you don't believe the valuation part--look at all products and cash and see where the margins and growth are. of course i could be wrong--but it is not currently mac/or pads. maybe it is something we cannot see yet--but from what we can see odds are the phone is the key in the next 1-2 years.

margins are huge at aapl--but decreasing sightly. in the mean time everyone who missed the point is starting to finally get on it. as best i can figure they will start to really catch up near the end of this year and in the first half of 2013. if this is true look for the market to factor this in front of the event. it's easy to laugh at intc--but they are set to exceed more's law over the next 3 chips. another wild idea is that some guys in India have put something together at the low end of smart phones for 20-25 bux. rather than fixate on the exact direction the point to consider is that aapl phones are in effect trying to hold off the whole world as we move forward.

in 1999 computer sales went parabolic--i myself got a very nice one along with windows nt. people bot these for several reasons in that time frame--but a huge burst of activity was due to the idea that Y2K (eg computers would blow up due to the date turning from 1900s to 2000. the idea was mostly absurd--but at the time everyone was talking about the idea the US gov would stop due to old mainframe code.

hence more computers than normally would have been bot in 1999 were bot and then in 2000 less were sold as a function of the prior buying.

i am suggesting that everyone is busting ass to get a smart phone this year and next as is evidenced by the projected sales and all the hype. (full disclosure--i have a dumb cell which i keep turned off so i can get something done--when i leave the house i love not being around the internet--so i could be missing the point due to age or twisted outlook. personally i find it scary to see all these people walking around in the zone looking at their phones. reality has a bigger screen and more action if you pay attention.

so summing up--i am saying that

(1) there is a limit to the total number of high end smart phones that can be sold world wide period
(2) that that limit should be hit (given the features we see now and are projected) next year at the latest.
(3) that there are other players finally starting to get going from weird ideas in india for 20 bux (low end) to intc/droid ideas that should be serious issues in 2013
(4) that as function of points 1-3 margins will drop
(5) that this same thing happened in computers about 1999-2002 time frame
(6) that with what we know now--unless aapl comes up with new stuff to maintain margins earnings growth will slow.
(7) key idea again--i like aapl--i don't buy their stuff because i don't need it-but it's nice looking and working stuff. i am not in any way suggesting the demise of the company. i am suggesting that the epic growth will slow and that will impact the stock price.

bonus point--cobra showed various companies hitting 500 billion and that being high points--now many of these were close to the market top in 2000--but ignoring that--consider his point in light of inflation. 500 billion in 1999 is likely really about 750 billion now. aapl is (hugely rounded off) worth about 100 billion for each 100 bux the stock sells for. if that is so and we adjust for inflation that puts that 500 bill idea in an overall context.

meaning--if the stock did continue up over the rest of the year (or at least till iphone 5 intro in june july--and hit 700-800 it would hit the exact inflation adjusted area other companies chilled at--at perhaps the peak hype on smart phones.

hope that helps good luck with your trading (and if you figure out how to factor aapl peak please let me know--interested maybe there is some way to do it with fib extending or something)

awesome! thanks tag...the articulation is what i needed. i'm not very good at reading the short hand sometimes.

i agree with you on almost all the points.

if we all agree that the market is always forward looking, then we have to assume that it's priced in the future earnings potential for appl. add on a little bit of excitement, and you get the current price. i do think it can grow, but i'm going to actually say that appl price slows far sooner than the 7-800 level.

[stucap]

well, this kind of consolidation usually means breakout on the downside. again, I'm not sure anymore about any bear cases nowadays.

No bust on VWAP on ES 5 min = we must buy the dip.

[taggard]

jarbo--

fair enough do you believe that we can go to 1550 to 1650 spx? at some point this year or in jan of 2013?

[btran874]

Dear Bears,

Sell in may and walk away. Looks like it's gonna be true again this year.