03/22/2012 Intraday Watering

[btran874]

S&P has to come down. She got no choice. DOW put in 3rd wave down so still missing 5th. I'll be super mad if S&P don't come down.

[Cobra]

made the 1st score, if the push up is strong here, then bears are over, so key time.

[Richarab]

Trader Vix. holy f***
i figured i could hold some positions from earlier in the year. just sit on em. but WTF?! its crashing on a day it should be flying?>!@#!@#$@#$%

You are rich, what do you care?! JK...hopefully it was a small position, sorry rich...

it was a massive position that i have been buying down since god damn january!@#$@#$
i just sold it at 12.82@#$#$%#$^%#$%^ -- you knew its was two legs down and that chart is UGLY!!!
god damn it!
i will be forced to sell my summer home in iceland...i loved that place!

[KeiZai]

captain speaking : http://www.c-span.org/Events/Fed-Chairm ... 7429212-2/

[BullBear52x]

Since now that I am selling the RIP, let it ripe....sell guys.

[shumushu]

S&P has to come down. She got no choice. DOW put in 3rd wave down so still missing 5th. I'll be super mad if S&P don't come down.

Lets be real, market does have the choice of not coming down, whether its probable is another story. The fact that you will be mad doesn't change this.

[BullBear52x]

Update chart.

[Cobra]

scored the 2nd, bears still need pray.

[fehro]

Trader Vix. holy f***
i figured i could hold some positions from earlier in the year. just sit on em. but WTF?! its crashing on a day it should be flying?>!@#!@#$@#$%

You are rich, what do you care?! JK...hopefully it was a small position, sorry rich...

it was a massive position that i have been buying down since god damn january!@#$@#$
i just sold it at 12.82@#$#$%#$^%#$%^ -- you knew its was two legs down and that chart is UGLY!!!
god damn it!
i will be forced to sell my summer home in iceland...i loved that place!

this may help understand what is happening to TVIX.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/450811- ... nd-follies

from the link:

You see, I learned Wednesday that the fast-money types are indeed expecting volatility to increase in the future, just not in the near future. So, apparently "the trade" these days is to buy longer-dated volatility contracts (options and futures) and then sell the near-term contracts. And since the VXX owns futures on the VIX over the next two months, the thing has been going down due to the selling going on in the futures the VXX owns.

While understanding the game being played by these folks is often helpful in staying in tune with the market, and I do now understand why my little VXZ hedge isn't doing what I thought it would, my bigger point is that there a whole bunch of people selling near-term volatility right now. Sure, they are doing it as part of a "trade." But the bottom line is that the uber-fast money crowd apparently thinks that (a) stocks won't correct much in the next two months and (b) stocks will see a serious correction at some point between July and September. Interesting, eh?

[Cobra]

support. lunch time, will be back. bears, if any here, please pray hard!

[BullBear52x]

scored the 2nd, bears still need pray.

[TraderGirl]

Trader Vix. holy f***
i figured i could hold some positions from earlier in the year. just sit on em. but WTF?! its crashing on a day it should be flying?>!@#!@#$@#$%

You are rich, what do you care?! JK...hopefully it was a small position, sorry rich...

it was a massive position that i have been buying down since god damn january!@#$@#$
i just sold it at 12.82@#$#$%#$^%#$%^ -- you knew its was two legs down and that chart is UGLY!!!
god damn it!
i will be forced to sell my summer home in iceland...i loved that place!

this may help understand what is happening to TVIX.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/450811- ... nd-follies

from the link:

You see, I learned Wednesday that the fast-money types are indeed expecting volatility to increase in the future, just not in the near future. So, apparently "the trade" these days is to buy longer-dated volatility contracts (options and futures) and then sell the near-term contracts. And since the VXX owns futures on the VIX over the next two months, the thing has been going down due to the selling going on in the futures the VXX owns.

While understanding the game being played by these folks is often helpful in staying in tune with the market, and I do now understand why my little VXZ hedge isn't doing what I thought it would, my bigger point is that there a whole bunch of people selling near-term volatility right now. Sure, they are doing it as part of a "trade." But the bottom line is that the uber-fast money crowd apparently thinks that (a) stocks won't correct much in the next two months and (b) stocks will see a serious correction at some point between July and September. Interesting, eh?

I am looking for a big correction starting late June/July. From here it looks like we trade sideways to June, then July should have a big tumble...IMHO. There are some nasty aspects at the end of June.... but if you don't believe, then don't pay attention...

[KeiZai]

Thanks fehro, thats very useful info

[fulkdaddy]

TraderGirl, I went to see Ray Merriman give his 2012 forecast last month and now subscrribe to his weekly update. His take, based on the planets is, we fall hard starting in March (now) or we rally very strong to August-November or March-April of 2013 before the big fall. He thinks it will be around a -48% crash. FWIW...lets see.

[BullBear52x]

What is a chance that Evil bears will let go today? see TRIN here.

[knurbs]

TraderGirl, I went to see Ray Merriman give his 2012 forecast last month and now subscrribe to his weekly update. His take, based on the planets is, we fall hard starting in March (now) or we rally very strong to August-November or March-April of 2013 before the big fall. He thinks it will be around a -48% crash. FWIW...lets see.

Sorry to sound cynical but you pay money to someone that say's the market may go down hard but if it doesn't it might go up? And Trader girl mentioned a few days ago she/he expects market to drop until early April (now saying "sideways until Summer). Are the planets that confused?

[Cobra]

agree or not, I made the 3rd score. bears still need pray, hard.

[OverUnder]

True, but on the Nasdaq daily futures it's a long way down to even the 20 MA. Almost 100 points.

Update on NDX 100

It has been the leader of this bull rally since December and still is. If it can close this hour above EMA 50 and above that "broken several times, but still seems nice" ex-channel top which is right there after, it would be great for the bulls.

The attachment NDX 100.jpg is no longer available

[btran874]

TraderGirl, I went to see Ray Merriman give his 2012 forecast last month and now subscrribe to his weekly update. His take, based on the planets is, we fall hard starting in March (now) or we rally very strong to August-November or March-April of 2013 before the big fall. He thinks it will be around a -48% crash. FWIW...lets see.

I think Meriman gives the 2nd option which we rally very strong to march/april 2013 heavier weight. That would falls perfectly in place with Elliot wave theory as well. We complete the major C/5th wave in march 2013 then we falls 48% according to Meriman which will bring us back down to 1344-1350 which still slightly above 1340 which is the previous wave 4, so that fits perfectly with Elliot Wave principle and that's a very likely target.

[BullBear52x]

http://seekingalpha.com/article/450811- ... nd-follies

Thanks, this is really something.