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Please post contents and images here, don't just a link. You can use your personal website address as signature, if people like your comments, they'll visit your site. Post only a link to your site is not allowed because if everyone does the same like you, the forum will become meaningless. So please, thanks.trendfollower wrote:Interesting read on Fed, Gold, S&P 500, and more:
Thanks!Cobra wrote:No.noob wrote:Thanks laoda! Any thoughts on VIX here?Cobra wrote:NDX Hedgers are betting heavily on the downside.
Thanks for the link.xfradnex wrote:For SWalsh- SEC Probes Rapid Trading. See video on http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/ ... D0B462979D
Hope they are not being paid off to look the other way. They talk about leveraged ETFs causing all the problems; maybe, but it seems that these HFT guys can do a lot more damage, especially if they use leveraged ETFs.
Al, while since 1981 yield for 10 year UST (yellow line) is negatively correlated with S&P; this wasn't the case between 1951-1981. Also note that even in this period this correlation turned other way around for a short period several time (for example in 1987, 1993, 1998, 2009) before resuming its long term trend. I am not a real short term guy so I can’t comment how fluctuations in UST will affect stock prices next week but in the long term (weeks to months) stock may continue to rise despite rising yield. At this time, in my opinion, much of money flow into UST is driven by “flight to safety” behavior similar to what was seen during the period of Great depression. At that time folks remained in UST despite a negative real return. With current employment conditions you may continue to see love of treasuries for quite some time. The Lending _environment indicator that I show on my intermediate term model actually monitors the credit market. Since 1981 it always led change in stock prices by 3-6 months. This time it is late by ~6 months. Last time it behaved this way was in 1968-1981 period. In my mind current period bears many similarities with that time. We are likely to see up/down moves in stock prices much like in 70’s that won’t be predicted by credit market due to distortions induced by “flight to safety” and a “Fed willing to do anything to inflate the asset prices” behaviors. The current "Chart of the week by Tom McClellan" has an interesting explanation of what is behind rising stock prices. Here is the chart. And here is the explanation. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... versus_m2/Al_Dente wrote:BOND MARKET
You all know the drill: when folks smell a major rally, they sell their short-term bonds [bonds/notes/bills] to raise cash and buy stocks.
Here’s chart “evidence”: U can see how during the 2003-2007 rally, folks sold their st debt (pink) and bought stocks.
Conversely, starting in late 2007 they sold their stocks and bought the “safety” of st debt.
That’s no surprise; that’s the NORMAL inverse relationship between bonds and stocks.
Here’s what’s surprising: since the 2009 bottom, folks HAVE NOT BEEN SELLING ST DEBT to buy stocks (see the pink uptrend line 2009-2012),
even though their st debt is yielding nada-interest-rate income.
This curious uptrend in short-term debt just broke down (green circle) under its trendline (after double topping in Jan), for the first time since about
June 2009. This may be just a zig-zag whipsaw, but if this selling of st debt persists, it would be quite bullish for SPY.
Yeap, depends on what age we're in, yield and stock may trend differently. I think we're back into inflation age now.Harapa wrote:Al, while since 1981 yield for 10 year UST (yellow line) is negatively correlated with S&P; this wasn't the case between 1951-1981. Also note that even in this period this correlation turned other way around for a short period several time (for example in 1987, 1993, 1998, 2009) before resuming its long term trend. I am not a real short term guy so I can’t comment how fluctuations in UST will affect stock prices next week but in the long term (weeks to months) stock may continue to rise despite rising yield. At this time, in my opinion, much of money flow into UST is driven by “flight to safety” behavior similar to what was seen during the period of Great depression. At that time folks remained in UST despite a negative real return. With current employment conditions you may continue to see love of treasuries for quite some time. The Lending _environment indicator that I show on my intermediate term model actually monitors the credit market. Since 1981 it always led change in stock prices by 3-6 months. This time it is late by ~6 months. Last time it behaved this way was in 1968-1981 period. In my mind current period bears many similarities with that time. We are likely to see up/down moves in stock prices much like in 70’s that won’t be predicted by credit market due to distortions induced by “flight to safety” and a “Fed willing to do anything to inflate the asset prices” behaviors. The current "Chart of the week by Tom McClellan" has an interesting explanation of what is behind rising stock prices. Here is the chart. And here is the explanation. http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_ce ... versus_m2/Al_Dente wrote:BOND MARKET
You all know the drill: when folks smell a major rally, they sell their short-term bonds [bonds/notes/bills] to raise cash and buy stocks.
Here’s chart “evidence”: U can see how during the 2003-2007 rally, folks sold their st debt (pink) and bought stocks.
Conversely, starting in late 2007 they sold their stocks and bought the “safety” of st debt.
That’s no surprise; that’s the NORMAL inverse relationship between bonds and stocks.
Here’s what’s surprising: since the 2009 bottom, folks HAVE NOT BEEN SELLING ST DEBT to buy stocks (see the pink uptrend line 2009-2012),
even though their st debt is yielding nada-interest-rate income.
This curious uptrend in short-term debt just broke down (green circle) under its trendline (after double topping in Jan), for the first time since about
June 2009. This may be just a zig-zag whipsaw, but if this selling of st debt persists, it would be quite bullish for SPY.
Here is how my long term SPX_TRIN system performed in that era.Harapa wrote: Last time it behaved this way was in 1968-1981 period. In my mind current period bears many similarities with that time. We are likely to see up/down moves in stock prices much like in 70’s that won’t be predicted by credit market due to distortions induced by “flight to safety” and a “Fed willing to do anything to inflate the asset prices” behaviors.
SWalsh wrote:
P.S. I was just told that they broke two DeMark signals immediately after they would have been acted on last week. Whether there is a War Room that makes these decisions or not is irrelevant. The facts are plain that Elliott Wave and DeMark signals are routinely obliterated. Just be sure in the future to only bitch a little.