04/04/2011 Live Update

[SWalsh]

I guess a bear flag is out of the question

I think the bears knows flags....white flags

Forgetting the opposition some might have to a Confederate flag, if that's what it takes, order 10 million (before China stops making them) and give them to the bears with a 2x4 and a 16 penny nail driven through the end....

Oh, and tell them the computers ate all the salmon

[johnnywa]

Has anyone loked at Moving average of NYAD Line...screaming buy here

[SWalsh]

Check the signal:

20.png

Do you have a little of Terry Laundry's T-Theory going in there too, or is it just a coincidence?

It nailed the high yesterday.

[BullBear52x]

Has anyone loked at Moving average of NYAD Line...screaming buy here

looks like bottom smell like bottom. but price pays

[victorm]

it's a risk, but, I'm buying TNA here .... see you guys at 1440 with TZA after Easter...

[johnnywa]

Hope your right,just dipped into SSO 60 calls

[Michelle]

Update:

21.png

Uempel, your turn signals have really been amazing.

[uempel]

Update:

[BullBear52x]

it's a risk, but, I'm buying TNA here .... see you guys at 1440 with TZA after Easter...

here is my just for fun pricing target for TNA, so far I see no sign to buy and to change my view, not yet anyway.

[Petsamo]

Update:

21.png

Uempel, your turn signals have really been amazing.

I'd like to see him post his trades

[Mr. BachNut]

My position has been market neutral since my last short trade. I remain sidelined as I continue to have conflicting indicators. The McClellan based signals I like have been bearish while the liquidity signals have been bullish. It doesn't look like that will change today. So, I guess it suggests chop.

Perhaps one noteworthy thing is my intraday McClellan Oscillator has been venturing into the oversold zone at the lows today. If there is a panic it can certainly get deep into oversold, but perhaps some consolidation or a bounce is in the cards.

I like your chop--but would venture to guess (full disclaimer--you have heard this before from me--but sooner or later it's a done deal) that qqq as of last week up 13 weeks in a row this is a first in the history of the etf. inevitably one way or another one always winds up back around the 10 week ema sooner or later. Your "chop" suggests this could be more of a process than a cratering. at this point i am wondering about earnings (time frame) as a way of working all this out.

Generally on a first dip on the weekly qqq after and extended move up--you get another buy. and it's hard to avoid (given we are over the 78% fib of the whole move down from 2000 on spx) the idea that spx will make some sort of attempt for the last major high. So maybe we are going to see "yo. .it only pulled back and can't fall so you gotta get long" one more time.


what will be interesting to watch is if the market takes so-so earnings in a positive light--since everyone is focused on liquidity only. also since aapl and qqq and semis in general (econ canary in the coal mine) have been leading--if this changes or at least mitigates somewhat around (so starting just before or just after earnings) and spx take the lead--if that were the case i would start to wonder about a major top on the indexes.

i always enjoy your McClellan Oscillator stuff--i use it too--but it has been a real pain lately. i use the 10 day ma on nysi to figure out roughly the most likely future direction of McClellan but the math i have is not real useful (best guess is early next week is not great but clueless after that) The other tool i use is a $NYSI (stockcharts version) with the rsi at stock settings--this too is suggesting oversold in an even larger context than the McClellan guy. This thing as you know is very slow--so again we could be down to 1-2 weeks and then a serious attempt up.

Bottom line? choppy sounds good--i would really like to see qqq try for the 10 week ema and then go up for one last run such that spx gets another shot at 1500-1600. Bonus consideration--$nysi (nyse summation index using stockcharts data) has declined decently from a very high point--it's speculative--but the next move up (assuming we get one) could very easily print a lower high if so that might be very interesting (time frame? may-end july??)

appreciate your posts sense of humor good luck with your trades

Well, thank you Taggard. I am waiting for my equity signals to come out of conflict, and I'll trade whichever way that is. I suspect, even then, that the next trade or two could have a good chance to get whipsawed, but that is the business and why money management is key. Cobra's evil plan looks quite plausible and particularly evil for non-day traders like me because that kind of pattern can cause a high noise to signal ratio. I will say there are other markets that have had clearer signals (oil ) lately.

[SigmaEcho]

another possible ascending triangle, so the bias is on the upside.

Hi Cobra, hope ur feeling better now.
What do you think of AEX? Thanks

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EAEX& ... z=l&q=b&c=

[Mr. BachNut]

Check the signal:

20.png

Do you have a little of Terry Laundry's T-Theory going in there too, or is it just a coincidence?

It nailed the high yesterday.

Interesting point SWalsh! The ellipses do seem to be illuminating symmetries in the price action to identify time points. The ellipses seem like they may be richer than Ts in so far as they are often shaped by more data points than Ts. They also look cool...

[BullBear52x]

here is a key time, XLF got intraday sell signal, from my read if this sell is a success, XLF on 1min chart will trade back below 200ma, if so we will see new LOD on SPY, if not the LOD is in. let see. here if you want to know what the hell I am looking at.

[uempel]

Update:

The attachment 21.png is no longer available

Uempel, your turn signals have really been amazing.

Thanks Michelle, but they are not "mine". Presumably some big guys are using them too. And if you're into TA physics such as actio/reaction they make sense too - a combination of vertical and horizontal channels.

Close up of chart for the 13:00 signal

[noob]

Cobra, rebound failed?

[Cobra]

failed to breakout on the upside, now revisit the morning low, therefore is key time. bears must decisively break below the morning low, no failure is allowed.

[uempel]

Check the signal:

20.png

Do you have a little of Terry Laundry's T-Theory going in there too, or is it just a coincidence?

It nailed the high yesterday.

Interesting point SWalsh! The ellipses do seem to be illuminating symmetries in the price action to identify time points. The ellipses seem like they may be richer than Ts in so far as they are often shaped by more data points than Ts. They also look cool...

Yeah, it's the same theory. But we can check the validity of the signal easier: a) the ellipse has to have many contacts, b) the vertical and the horizonal centerlines have to make sense and c) the left border and the top/bottom level have to make sense too... So we get a kind of confirmation, a stamp of approval

[SWalsh]

Check the signal:

20.png

Do you have a little of Terry Laundry's T-Theory going in there too, or is it just a coincidence?

It nailed the high yesterday.

Interesting point SWalsh! The ellipses do seem to be illuminating symmetries in the price action to identify time points. The ellipses seem like they may be richer than Ts in so far as they are often shaped by more data points than Ts. They also look cool...

I'd like to see that they are not the same, but when they line-up together, really signal a turning point

[SWalsh]

Check the signal:

20.png

Do you have a little of Terry Laundry's T-Theory going in there too, or is it just a coincidence?

It nailed the high yesterday.

Interesting point SWalsh! The ellipses do seem to be illuminating symmetries in the price action to identify time points. The ellipses seem like they may be richer than Ts in so far as they are often shaped by more data points than Ts. They also look cool...

Yeah, it's the same theory. But we can check the validity of the signal easier: a) the ellipse has to have many contacts, b) the vertical and the horizonal centerlines have to make sense and c) the left border and the top/bottom level have to make sense too... So we get a kind of confirmation, a stamp of approval

The "stamp of approval" reminds me of "Scrooged" with Bill Murray as he watches Carol Kane performing, "The Ball Breaker Suite" and she dances to him and does exactly that!