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First of all welcome aboard.PGM wrote:Hello Cobra. Thursday we had a MAD. Friday we had a sell-off, but not a MDD. Do you think we will still get a new high soon?
Do you have a long term chart highlighting MADs and MDDs?
Thank you.
all you say is true--but the ideal set up to the upside is a higher or equal low on nymo (mcClellan) and a lower low in spx. i spend my time on the qqqs of course so the action around fed intc and aapl earnings is key. what i see is some selling on ok earnings--which looks controlled so far. again it's the qqq but usually the first hit of the 10 ema more or less holds (slightly above or slightly below is fine it's the general idea not an exact point). this is not far from the 23.6 fib of the last move up. also nysi is getting a bit over done (i use a stock rsi on stockcharts as well as the index). Bottom line right now? not disputing a single of your points--but if they "save it" after a bit of fear the move up stronger in general. maybe higher put call and generally lower volume can create "a situation" if coupled with a lower low in spx that holds.Mr. BachNut wrote:Friday's action gave me a headache. One, the close was terrible. Bulls did not have confidence to hold over the weekend. There may be a relief rise on Monday if nothing bad happens over the weekend, but it reveals weakness. Two, my thesis for Thursday was that it was the start of an oversold bounce (McClellan Oscillator was deep negative for several days), but Friday showed plenty of selling power. Lastly, and most problematic is that the Friday selloff came after Thursday's high kissed the underside of a big trend line from the October low (see chart). It is not unusual, once a trend is broken, for there to be a thrust to try and regain the trend. If the thrust kisses the line and then gives up the ghost, it sets the table for a new trend. I think the Elliott Wavers who were calling Thursday the "B" wave of an ABC down got some power to there arguement on Friday.
Next week will be interesting. Max Pain and put/call ratios seem bullish heading into Opex, and it is not unusual to see a local low made the Thursday/Friday before Opex. So, there is a bullish case too. Thursday's high needs to get broken (there be the load of buy stops).