05/23/2012 Live Update

[Al_Dente]

Paging Al Dente re TED Spread discussion:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/euro-basi ... -red-light
Things are getting interesting.

THANK YOU VERY MUCH mr bachnut
I didn’t understand all of that link, except for stuff like “desperation for term funding” and “crisis-like” and “collateral squeeze” and
“globally coordinated central bank response” coming soon, et al.
Which is what DBV (IMF lending liquidity) and dollar and others are saying… bear...
Is the TED spread broken?
She says it is not soooo bad (under 0.50) when everybody else knows that it is (?)
All I know 4 sure is this time is NOT different….
GL

[tigerwang9999]

Cobra, if we close here today, will tomorrow be bear biased? Thanks

[iamtom07]

Not to me Can you help me with it?

as I said, the winner takes the sharp move. too bad I was stopped out AGAIN with nothing, oh, lost some trading commission to IB....

cobra, who wins so far

It's obvious on the chart.

[Cobra]

Cobra, if we close here today, will tomorrow be bear biased? Thanks

Still hard to say. You can imagine I repeat exactly the first sentence in the last night report, with 100% Measured Move target this time though. Sorry, TA, sometimes is like this, certainly there's a gray area where it tells neither direction.

One thing is true though: Now chances are very high this is just a rebound. So my big picture evil plan will still be in play.

[Cobra]

Not to me Can you help me with it?

as I said, the winner takes the sharp move. too bad I was stopped out AGAIN with nothing, oh, lost some trading commission to IB....

cobra, who wins so far

It's obvious on the chart.

It's sharp down, the winner was bear. Now that round is over, bulls are charging.

[taggard]

Most folks are totally deluded the central banks and other monetary authorities will let the system explode like 2008.

They saw hell and know what that will bring...terrible things, maybe full scale war !

Let the markets speculate, but liquidity will be there, QE 3, QE4, QE5.... just look at japan. Yeah, we may run and run and go nowhere, but we wont fall off the global economic cliff. Im sure the money printers are watching the equities and bonds very closely.

the problem can be seen in some recent inflation numbers in china--food inflation was 7% and manufactured goods and services was roughly 2% it netted something like 2.5%. the problem with the idea they will just print money (and they will) is that you wind up with a skew like this for say 3 years and all of a sudden you have "terrible things maybe full scale war". because huge numbers of people cannot eat. so it's an interesting situation. there is no question we need another 4-8 trillion in the future world wide--and that this is not that large a % of world gdp--but that creating it and having key stuff like food energy and medical go up too fast--actually increases unstable situations leading to more market issues. you are certainly right that they will print money--however the results of that are what is not clear. the rule of thumb is that bad ideas only continue so long before something changes. in this case maybe the rate of change in technology will eventually offset the printing of money and everything will go as you seem to be suggesting (since the technology change would offset the inflation caused by money printing). if seen as a sine wave if you think of market "issues" being bottoms if you crush the sine waves together you get increased instability by event and maybe by size--yet decreased in the sense of time. so you don't get a 10 year depression you get a 4 event crash over short periods kind of thing. The other unstable thing is youth employment--printing money in the euro zone does very little to offset this--and 50% of spanish kids have very little to lose--so some sort of impact is going to come.

the bottom line is if they print enough money to really make a difference--yet refuse to spend any of it wisely (eg give it to banks that buy sovereign debt) the situation doesn't change and the risk actually increases. if they refuse to print enough (or far more likely) or are "late" printing it--then you have issues the other way. so agree with your basic point--just far less sure how that actually plays out.

good luck with your trades

[Cobra]

see, who had the doubt about my bounce call, please stand up.

[Cobra]

I'll assume 100% MM to Fib 50%.

[MrMiyagi]

131$ tough nut to crack today for SPY.

[Cobra]

bingo.

[EvilTrader]

as I said, the winner takes the sharp move. too bad I was stopped out AGAIN with nothing, oh, lost some trading commission to IB....

good call, thats why im a subscriber of yours.

[Cobra]

volume surge, biggest bar, let's see the next bar first.

[cougar]

Anybody trading gold derivatives here?
GLD is ready for an important step up!

[Cobra]

now anyone sees H&S Bottom here?

[taggard]

Taggard, agree all…
Old OLD days you’d get an allocation of an IPO and the underwriter tells you verbally DO NOT FLIP especially first day but first week also, as they would like to see it grow “legs” before crazy volatility (they use the word “legs”). Unspoken and unwritten is (was) the FACT that if u flip, u will simply NOT be offered an allocation of the next “hot” IPO. Simple as that. No rules, just on the next IPO there are none available to you, so sorry.
[And if they do give me an IPO I know immediately that it will NOT be “hot”].
Maybe things have changed, I don’t know, as they haven’t given me many IPOs since the tech bubble (I liked to flip ‘em). I am on their unwritten unspoken “s**t list” and it’s perfectly legal…
GL buddy

from what i hear there is less "loyalty" now. and i remember "legs". i gave up on individual companies back in 2001 so it's all just amusing now. my only problem with all of it is the idea that the average guy is getting nailed to the wall. part of me would really like to see this guy get a decent shot (like education in schools etc) and the other part of me (since i was and am that guy in a lot of ways) says individuals are responsible. i see regulation of large corporations as hugely important as they can easily do a lot of damage due to their impact. but individuals do much less hence the idea they should not be regulated as seriously. it just seems (in theory) like things would work better if everyone playing the game had some basic idea of what the rules are. however i really like the idea of the Easter Bunny and still believe in love at first sight--so take it with a grain of salt.

[Cobra]

as I said, the winner takes the sharp move. too bad I was stopped out AGAIN with nothing, oh, lost some trading commission to IB....

good call, thats why im a subscriber of yours.

thanks.

[TraderGirl]

IWM p-bar down to 71.28$.. long way down.

Ouch!!

[Al_Dente]

THOSE are three 5min squeeze sticks spy
that I have been watching waiting for
now stalling on stick #4
Let’s see if short-covering can sqz or exhaust……

Also near 3 million shares bot buying on 1min

[lcgllc]

now anyone sees H&S Bottom here?

yes and a bearish wedge

[Cobra]

up up up ole' ole' ole'