06/02/2012 Weekend Discussion

[Cobra]

Institutional accumulation distribution (courtesy of stocktiming). Good news for bulls is the accumulation is increasing while distribution may be weakening. However, the chart only reflects up to Thursday, so need see the Monday chart to know whether the Friday's dramatic sell off changed the picture though. Also divergence, may take sometimes to work, so personally, I don't simply trade on divergence, I need a signal trigger at least. Well, I don't trade against the trend at all, hmm, I mean officially.

[Cobra]

II and AAII survey.

[Cobra]

Smart Money neutral.

[grachu]

cobra for a quick laugh

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2012/06/contagionex/

[lazytrader]

GM Cobra,

Based on the tsx long term chart...one would have made 25 spx points in this entire run.such a big run is a whipsaw..

[KeiZai]

Wow seeing a lot of bearishness around...I know it is difficult to find something bullish in this macro enviroment but I will try it, at least for short-term just to be contrary

How I see start of the next week? So, Asia will react on bad data which will cause gap down in EU, DAX H&S target will be met with gap down and then we will have strong oversold rally to shake out late bears etc (fueled by Irish referendum and Greek polls - bailout party in the lead)

interterm I am bearish, I am not afraid to say that I am bearish in long-term as well

Ok now why I think we will have rally...check this leading diagonal and moreover end of the wave 5 fits with DAX H&S target

One thing I am very very scared of (and I think same with bernanke ) is CRB-index, triangle has been broken and I see there also possible diamond top formation

30 years T-bonds are right on the upper blue line (155 not visible on this chart) Im looking for shorting them (carefully) in next days

EDIT: but VIX past 200 MA and 61 fib does not look bearish (bullish for stocks), so good reason to be cautious here for bulls

"crowd is right most of the time, they are just wrong at the major turns and are slow to realize it"

[TraderJoe]

GM Cobra, I could not help but notice that you add a new target on one of your SPX charts at 1249.03. That's down 29 points from where we are now...

[Al_Dente]

G’day weekenders
Offensive/Defensive Ratio update:
It held that bull trendline we were watching.
Right there…
Held that intermediate-term, up-trend line I was blabbing about….
After yesterday’s carnage? When XLY was down -3.16%, pierced its lower bolinger (now double bottom on daily).
Perhaps because oil is soooo down = more money in consumer pockets = they go out and spend it.
Perhaps consumers are going bonkers again with their plastic, whereupon V and MA might be strong. Nope.
Conclusion: astonished bull, maybe for a bounce, but but but…. http://screencast.com/t/YumFeDZi0HTm

Here are the candle glance charts of the top ten holdings in XLY, in order of largest % holdings:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... ,low|C|D10

And the top ten holdings of retail XRT, in order:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candl ... HIBB|C|D10

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lt4qXUZG ... re=related

[pezhead9000]

Overall (TSM) block trade money flow was positive

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yflow.html

[pezhead9000]

MSFT, XOM, QQQ - top 3 buying on weakness

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... yflow.html

[BullBear52x]

Paging Dr. Al, no Madonna song is OK

Re: $HRNYA it's like any other gauge, there's peak high and peak low. I start paying attention to it when it hit high >95 or low<5, below here see how offen it reached below 5 since bull run from March 09. this is the reason why I am looking to see it goes down that low to flush out all none believers, at the same time bulls don't want to see it embedded down there.

I am like most, no positive sign beside "over sold" any time a buy support or a sell resistance it's counter trend and if that is your game then this is good place to be. dead on the support line. for trend followers bear flag measurement = 125ish. have a good one all.

[Al_Dente]

My Rotation chart shows the movement out of small and medium-cap stocks (= risk off).
But note (top panel) that almost every sizeable spike up into the """safer""" large caps marks a bottom of sorts on SPY.
Comments??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqxMoSP3 ... re=related

[Al_Dente]

PAGING Baron von Madonna
Kids today don’t get the importance of this legendary 1983 performance.
It changed the face of music, dance and entertainment forever, and was the paradigm for all that followed.
It’s the best there is.... Just 4 u bub
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kXhy7Zsi ... re=related

[KeiZai]

Short-term chart, what I think we will see

Paging al : BIG song from real KING!


EDIT: TraderGirl any turn dates 4 coming week? on wednesday the ECB meets to set interest rates (rumors: -25bps) and on thursday Bernanke testifies to Congress

[KeiZai]

Uf not a good looking pound sterling chart...good for american consumer(if u are traveller) bad for US economy

Or trap again?

Documentary film for evening relax: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EEZkQv25 ... r_embedded
And game for chart addicted people like me : http://chartarcade.com/

Have a good one everybody

[Al_Dente]

“Oil Output Soars as Iraq Retools”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/03/world ... 2_20120603

[Al_Dente]

DOLLAR MAY TAKE A BREATHER ?
The intraday charts on UUP indicate she may want to breathe here.
The dollar’s run had such amplitude, she could easily pullback without breaking uptrend.
Friday’s Gold bounce suggests that if the dollar relaxes, gold may take her place as the safe haven [sic] du jour.
My 60 min Gold renko has been on a sell signal since 23 Feb. It flashed a [short term] buy signal on Friday’s move.
[According to Ned Davis Research: “China has become a size buyer on dips in the $1500 range.”]

My other macro indicators are still firmly in medium-term bear-spy territory
(eg: trend follower stock/bond ratio, equity 5/10/20ma cross, 205 ouch new lows Friday, etc.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvKtxTsV ... re=related

[Mr. BachNut]

Random reflections:

It has been striking to see treasury yields thrust to extreme historic lows while the decline in equities has (so far) been relatively controlled (VIX hasn't even broke 30).

I think part of an explanation could be a collateral shortage in the interbank market. The Fed and ECB easing operations have taken collateral out of the system. Other collateral (certain sovereign credits) has gone bad or is being discounted. The willingness of banks to lend to each other on an unsecured basis is impaired. Deposits in certain areas are draining. So, I imagine there is a collection of banks (mostly in Europe) who are selling stuff that isn't good for pledging (now or later) and buying stuff that is. Good collateral is getting scarce and has value beyond the paltry yield it might offer. If they find themselves with inadequate collateral, they lose the ability to adequately fund their balance sheets and will be forced to liquidate stuff they would rather not...

I think another part of the explanation is that U.S. investors expect more intervention and are not panicking...yet (complacent may be too strong a word). It is an election year, and the powers that be are not likely to remain idle as things go south. A portion of longs are not letting go in anticipation of more easing or at least signals of easing. Assuming they are right, this test of the 200 day moving average should end up with a passing grade perhaps after a bit more turbulance. Where things get interesting, is if no signs of additional easing arrive in the next few weeks and beliefs have to change, in which case the deep bear targets could come into play.

Lastly, the fall in rates and commodity prices (oil in particular) at some point should help equities. At some point soon, we should see some chatter from pundits and analysts about profit margins with falling input costs.

[Al_Dente]

PAGING BARON BB
When u have time (no rush) could u please dig out yr old old LT chart showing the levels and dates of QE and global CB intervention….. thx…..

[BullBear52x]

PAGING BARON BB
When u have time (no rush) could u please dig out yr old old LT chart showing the levels and dates of QE and global CB intervention….. thx…..

I think you meant DBV?, I lost the old one (TOS version update) here is recreation on Stockcharts from memory, something of that nature, keep in mind the intervention have been the norm since BOJ agreed to get in with Uncle Ben. now they push to have BOC (or People's bank) in it too, but this one doesn't play along as smooth as they want it too. anyways as trader 22.5 is next key level to watch for now.