08/11/2012 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Happy time with my daughter tomorrow whole day, so have to post all stuffs today. Don't know if every father has the same feeling: I'd be very happy if I did something to put smile on my daughter's face.

Anyway, the biggest story still is the smart money is heavily short. Big WOW!

[Cobra]

I think this Algo chart is the most worthy stuff in stocktiming report. Distribution is low but in uptrend, the algo above is overbought. I read the chart favor bears. It takes time to work though.

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As usually institutional accumulation and distribution from stocktiming.

[Cobra]

AAII and II

[Cobra]

again, let's see how high the gas price can go.

[Cobra]

Canadian dollar above parity again.

[six9ine]

All: I have developed a system which interprets and produces the true, actual waves of the market. I've been mapping the market with it for years now and it is spot on accurate. I'm going to do a little project on Twitter and walk my followers through the next wave sequence (it's a nice 5th wave down and should be good for 100 points or so on the S&P500). I follow no one and I use no indicators. All are welcome to join (VirdigoTA@Twitter).

Cobra: really enjoy your work, please follow along...!! This is going to be a very profitable opportunity on the short side...!!

[oldpigwang]

Cobra: Is your baby cobra having a birthday party?

[wayne0708]

Let's see if dollar can gain some steam up coming week.

[wayne0708]

How does fear gauge look?

[Cobra]

Cobra: Is your baby cobra having a birthday party?

No. Just a regular fun day. Usually I do it every Sunday but this time the cheap tickets are Saturday only.

[Petsamo]

USCTrojanman gave a bunch of reasons to be long. I'll give one - team, Mitt Romney & Paul Ryan. I can't wait for regime change in the US.

[TradingJackal]

Presenting 3 SPY counts in the charts below.

One count says there is more room left to the upside after we finish another wave down on Monday.
The second count says, we finished 4 at the double bottom and we are well into wave 5 to the up side.

The third count (not on the chart), we are done with moves to the upside. The wave e is to follow to the downside to finish the Leading Diagonal on Monday. From the literature I have read at Bulkowski's website, LD is made of 5-3-5-3-5 moves whereas in the chart below, I only see 3-3-3-3-3 move which would fit better as a triangle in wave 4 so I still believe there is room to the upside.

The first and third counts are showing weakness at open on Monday. The last wave does not have to travel the entire distance and can get truncated as the market realizes what is happening. So, if we open in the Red on Monday, BTFD may start midway to finish off the wave e prematurely in case we are to begin the final ascend up.

If we break yesterday's high on Monday, it would mean yesterday's action was an impulse wave to the upside and the chop we saw around noon was not a B but a series of 1-2 waves that exploded to the upside in the last hour or so. That would imply we are already well into 5 to the upside.

[ClarkW]

PURE SPECULATION, FOR FUN

$SILVER: Daily looks like a possible ascending triangle while weekly a descending triangle. If the ascending triangle becomes reality and hits the MM target ($30.70 area) it would keep it within the descending triangle on the weekly if it happens in the next 2-4 weeks

[BigTurtle3]

Is it me or was $NYMOT down the last two days with SPY up the last two days? Granted SPY was Barely up on thursday - Don't know if that's a sign a turn is coming or just a sign that numbers and signals don't matter much anymore....

Happy weekend all -

Turtle -

[TradingJackal]

Did some research on Wolfe waves and whether proportions have to be absolutely accurate or not. Firstly, on a daily chart, this pattern is not very common. I mean, once in 2 years or more. It is also more likely to occur in choppy patterns/corrective waves. We are in big choppy mess right now so it would be a great place for this pattern to materialize.

Let's look at the latest one which I believe is almost ripe.

Here are some from the years before. Notice, in most cases, the market reverses at this point. So, if we dip now and touch the line, we may reverse and go on higher. What would cause that on a macro-economic level?

[Al_Dente]

Hello weekenders
Correlation between SPY and the World (above 0.50 is positive correlation, with 1.0 being perfect 100% correlation)

[BullBear52x]

Hello all, here's from my corner since most of us already know where we are and where we're going. simple BB look here, short term bear still have a chance.

[Al_Dente]

Semiconductors showed extraordinary strength this week, and their % performance over the last month shows them stronger than qqq and aapl, and also
(not on this chart) stronger than the all the dow techs.

The 30 minute semis chart shows them ripe for a pullback, but since they have been in the overbought zone for most of Aug, they could surely continue overbought a bit longer if they must.

[Al_Dente]

We’ve been following the (inverted) dollar because it has been working, that’s all; and when it no longer works, we’ll toss it.
Yesterday was day four of a dollar divergence suggesting bear SPY
Check your updates often, as that thing could spike like a vicious honey badger.

[BullBear52x]

Semiconductors showed extraordinary strength this week, and their % performance over the last month shows them stronger than qqq and aapl, and also
(not on this chart) stronger than the all the dow techs.

811wkndsmhperf.png

The 30 minute semis chart shows them ripe for a pullback, but since they have been in the overbought zone for most of Aug, they could surely continue overbought a bit longer if they must.

811wkndsmh30.png

are they include Samsung or Hynix? see INTC, MU, AMD they are American soul of Semi, well, equipment/tool makers like FEIC or KLAC always do good, AMAT got left behind it used to be high flyer of all CMP process.