08/15/2012 Live Update

[shaca]

euro must stay above 1,2260, below this level i think everything will go down fastly
there is a wolfe on bund 5hour with target above 144

[Al_Dente]

Housing market index just beat estimates (largest monthly gain in 10 yrs)
2 min here:

[stucap]

Hey Cobra,

market has been hovering around 1405 for the past 8 trading days. Consolidating. . . is this a bullish or bearish?

any thoughts?

anyone in the forum have any thoughts reg: central bank action coming up in September or sooner? seems like the market is pricing in another round of QE, but that may not happen for another 6 weeks.

thx for any replies.

consolidation here is "bullish" until we are proven otherwise -- i.e. a break of first the current channel that has lasted the past few trading days (around 1400 SPX) and ultimately the line on cobra's chart (from earlier today) which rests at about 1390 SPX.

[Mongoose]

Hey Cobra,

market has been hovering around 1405 for the past 8 trading days. Consolidating. . . is this a bullish or bearish?

any thoughts?

anyone in the forum have any thoughts reg: central bank action coming up in September or sooner? seems like the market is pricing in another round of QE, but that may not happen for another 6 weeks.

thx for any replies.

consolidation here is "bullish" until we are proven otherwise -- i.e. a break of first the current channel that has lasted the past few trading days (around 1400 SPX) and ultimately the line on cobra's chart (from earlier today) which rests at about 1390 SPX.

hey, thx.

[KENA]

A note of interest from Shaeffer's..JOY is now looking good for a short..usually when JOY moves the mkt follows.

[Harapa]

PAGING BARON
Get your ding ding in here


PAGE HARAPA ONLY……..others: me still just tinkering here, don’t pay much attention to this one
I changed my MAs to 50 (better) and put this master chart on VIX so the CCI is now on VIX (instead of spy)
SPY is now purple behind invertVIX

815harapa.png

By all 4 on one side (at yesterday/today's ~open, you pocketed ~40C by shorting SPY. Not bad!
Doesn't this look too simple
My set up triggered it ~12:30 and remain in sell mode. Let's who wins!
BB: Get your ding ding in here --Pronto

[Mr. BachNut]

Short.
Today is day 4 since the ARMs sell warning.
No sell-off yet.
If one hasn't started by tomorrow's close, the edge provided by this signal will be substantially depreciated.
Thus, the above trade would go on a tight leash Friday.
Otherwise, not much to say at the moment.

[TraderJoe]

Short.
Today is day 4 since the ARMs sell warning.
No sell-off yet.
If one hasn't started by tomorrow's close, the edge provided by this signal will be substantially depreciated.
Thus, the above trade would go on a tight leash Friday.
Otherwise, not much to say at the moment.

Mr. BachNut, How often do you see ARMs sell warning go 4 days like this with no selloff???

[Mr. BachNut]

Looking at TLT, it looks like a bolus of stops are getting hit in Treasury land. After the dust settles, if they don't bounce or if the sell-off accelerates...

[nightlyhawk]

Just a market update chart. I don't think this pull back is over yet, but let's see how market is going to play out these few days before BUY signals kicking in.

[SB73]

5 of the last 6 session there has been a gap down with an easy fill for the bulls and absolutely no damage done. Waiting for the break on this consolidation.

[swayne99]

Cobra, a triple bottom on AAPL on the five min does it hold or break below?

[KENA]

Will be leaving in 1/2 hr..This is Fair day..We go to the NW Wash.Fair every year..Good family outing and lots of good Fair Food.

[TraderJoe]

Will be leaving in 1/2 hr..This is Fair day..We go to the NW Wash.Fair every year..Good family outing and lots of good Fair Food.

ENJOY and have a corndog for me

[Cobra]

Cobra, a triple bottom on AAPL on the five min does it hold or break below?

I think it could be double bottom here on 5 min chart, 40% chances.

[Al_Dente]

Will be leaving in 1/2 hr..This is Fair day..We go to the NW Wash.Fair every year..Good family outing and lots of good Fair Food.

have fun boss

[Al_Dente]

15 min
Same chop, different day
SOMEBODY needs to get stronger here

[Mr. BachNut]

Short.
Today is day 4 since the ARMs sell warning.
No sell-off yet.
If one hasn't started by tomorrow's close, the edge provided by this signal will be substantially depreciated.
Thus, the above trade would go on a tight leash Friday.
Otherwise, not much to say at the moment.

Mr. BachNut, How often do you see ARMs sell warning go 4 days like this with no selloff???

When the prevailing trend is bullish, it can go 4 days and still be effective.
The instances where it went 4 days and still worked tended to be ones where the market was putting in a top of some kind.
The odds of success are lower when the prevailing trend is up but the payoffs from when it catches tops have provided asymmetric returns.
I do not have an expectation in this case now.
When this signal fails during an uptrend, the typical pattern is prices just keep climbing on trend and ignore the signal (stopping me out).
This week, the market has been arguably flat. So, the typical failure pattern is not playing out.
However, with OPEX in play in a low volume environment, I think anything can happen.
I am feeling this was not a great trade to do in this thin thin market. The professionals can set price where they want it.
I don't think we are seeing real price discovery at the moment but this is another issue...

[gappy]

appl.png

Cobra, a triple bottom on AAPL on the five min does it hold or break below?

This stock a bargain on any pullback. Chart from Moise Levi.

[Cobra]

info only, 100% MM target. The biggest SPY CALL OI is $140, so we might go nowhere until Friday.