09/01/2012 Weekend Update

[TraderJoe]

I hope all of you enjoy the 3 day weekend. Following is from an article.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!
I believe QE3 is coming, probably to be announced formally at the September 12th/13th meeting, here is why;

1 - Bernanke's speech sounded like he was signaling to markets that he plans a strong stimulus program very soon.

2 - It sounded as if he does not need to see further deteriorating economic conditions to conduct a Fed stimulus policy.

3 - Bernanke used the term "gravely concerned" about the Jobs market situation.

4 - Since the Humphrey Hawkins Law was passed, the Fed now has a dual mandate, to maintain price stability (keep inflation low), and to support a suitable employment rate.

5 - He clearly said Friday that the second mandate is not being achieved at present and that more needs to be done to improve the employment situation.

6 - Later in the day Friday, John Williams, the President of the San Francisco Fed, practically announced that the Fed was about to do a QE3 or similar program to stimulate the economy, and sooner rather than later. He was clear that he wants the Fed to do a preemptive stimulus program before a negative economic shock hits the system. He used the metaphor that it is like strengthening the patient before a disease comes, so when it comes, he can handle it.
Williams actually discussed how the program may be structured. He emphasized flexibility, without specific limits or types of securities purchases being detailed.
Clearly this coming QE3 is planned, ready, and about to be announced.

7 - Bernanke has another incentive to do a QE3 program, and sooner rather than later. If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Bernanke will be looking for a new job in 2014. The Los Angeles Times ran an article by Jim Puzzanghera on August 24th quoting Romney as saying, "I would want to select someone who was . . . a new person to that chairman's position, someone who shared my economic views, that I thought was sympathetic to the needs of our nation."

This means it is legacy time for Bernanke. With 23 million people out of work, Bernanke has failed to achieve the second mandate for the Fed under his leadership. With time possibly running out, if Romney wins election, Bernanke needs to do something now to get people employed. If he does QE3 now, the Fed believes it will create jobs. Many economists disagree, but listening to Bernanke and Williams today, both believe past QE programs have created hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which means they believe another QE program will create jobs. Bernanke probably keeps his job if Obama is reelected. He probably does not if Romney is elected. If he wants to continue to be the Fed Chairman, in his mind, he has to do another QE program now. He has the votes. Most of the voting members of the Fed's Open Market Operations Committee are in favor of more immediate stimulus.

8 - I believe the odds are very high that some sort of QE3 program will be announced at the September 12th/13th meeting. That will be bullish in the short-term for stocks and for precious metals and commodities. It is an inflationary step. It is a dollar devaluation step.

[KeiZai]

Natural Gas

[nightlyhawk]

Just a simple medium-term outlook chart. It shows market still having some more rooms on the upside and market thrust is still bullish.

[KeiZai]

Going long CORN on monday, target is around 1000, till spring IMHO

[nightlyhawk]

With heavy selling from pink line over last 2-week, I guess next rally will enter into a mature stage with a meaningful pull-back thereafter (the perfect scenario is when top blue line hitting OB level.) So, watch out in below.

[nightlyhawk]

No idea of why Credit Suisse hasn't been updating their report over last few days, but below charts are still relevant to show market entering a mature stage.

[nightlyhawk]

From StockTiming, with gray line (from C-RSI) is above 0 & green line (from Liquidity Flow) is close to OS level, I guess the current pull-back is over soon. Also, it looks like a positive divergence from Institutional "Shift in Direction".

Last, my short-term trading setup for next week is in BUY mode. Let's see.

By the way, I will appear on here more during weekend than weekdays due to heavy working schedule and no access to this website (unless uploading intraday charts by i-pad.)

GLTA & have a wonderful long w'end.

[Seawaves]

This up-trend since June is not over yet. The current consolidation seems a bullish flag. even if triangle broken down, 1380 has strong support

[joe-gamma]

Going long CORN on monday, target is around 1000, till spring IMHO

Corn.png

How is the Point Figure training coming along?

here is a thoughthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdtONUxp9b0

Isaac just made it to midwest and we only got about a 0.1 inch....farmers here are saying without normal+ rain in next month, soil moisture will be too dry to germinate wheat and others....grain inflation could be worse next year, glad I do not own cattle or raise horses because hap and oat price has more than doubled ,

something worth watching very L/T
GL, Joe

[joe-gamma]

HI JOE-GAMMA
Another view of aggressive v defensive sectors
This one is percentage performance based, last two months, 30 min
(As u know, if u change the timeframe, u will get diff results)
[Edit: Note the divergence: bonds are saying “risk off” but stocks are not quite confirming that just yet]

The attachment 91wkndsectors.png is no longer available

Thanks Al: i was wondering if, relative to 129 ratio, toys were still cheap or toilet paper was oversold...starting to believe that staples leading the way down as a "tell" (though s/t bit oversold)....possibly discretion is just not buying into this rally (and has ult osc bearish divergence with new highs here),
here is a song for toys http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_RAQthYCw8

[joe-gamma]

new stockcharts indicator could help tell us when to get short putspreads, has a catchy name too
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulcer_index
could also be used for trend strength confirmation...

[Harapa]

Per this research you can expect more gains despite consumer discretionary not leading. For details see the link below.

http://www.seeitmarket.com/using-moment ... io-filter/

[mac769]

The DAX seems to be wandering on a knifes edge right now...

BMW update

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=637&p=89165#p89165

The attachment BMW-sept.png is no longer available

[mac769]

... and a look at the price of Gasoline futures shows, he is having a hard time to inflate commodities by any measures...

Remember, one cent of gasoline price increase is about the same as one billion more of taxes on the US consumer...

And most voters will not decide on the level of the S&P500, or some fabricated economic stats, but on the level of the price at the pump

I hope all of you enjoy the 3 day weekend. Following is from an article.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!
I believe QE3 is coming, probably to be announced formally at the September 12th/13th meeting, here is why;

1 - Bernanke's speech sounded like he was signaling to markets that he plans a strong stimulus program very soon.

2 - It sounded as if he does not need to see further deteriorating economic conditions to conduct a Fed stimulus policy.

3 - Bernanke used the term "gravely concerned" about the Jobs market situation.

4 - Since the Humphrey Hawkins Law was passed, the Fed now has a dual mandate, to maintain price stability (keep inflation low), and to support a suitable employment rate.

5 - He clearly said Friday that the second mandate is not being achieved at present and that more needs to be done to improve the employment situation.

6 - Later in the day Friday, John Williams, the President of the San Francisco Fed, practically announced that the Fed was about to do a QE3 or similar program to stimulate the economy, and sooner rather than later. He was clear that he wants the Fed to do a preemptive stimulus program before a negative economic shock hits the system. He used the metaphor that it is like strengthening the patient before a disease comes, so when it comes, he can handle it.
Williams actually discussed how the program may be structured. He emphasized flexibility, without specific limits or types of securities purchases being detailed.
Clearly this coming QE3 is planned, ready, and about to be announced.

7 - Bernanke has another incentive to do a QE3 program, and sooner rather than later. If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Bernanke will be looking for a new job in 2014. The Los Angeles Times ran an article by Jim Puzzanghera on August 24th quoting Romney as saying, "I would want to select someone who was . . . a new person to that chairman's position, someone who shared my economic views, that I thought was sympathetic to the needs of our nation."

This means it is legacy time for Bernanke. With 23 million people out of work, Bernanke has failed to achieve the second mandate for the Fed under his leadership. With time possibly running out, if Romney wins election, Bernanke needs to do something now to get people employed. If he does QE3 now, the Fed believes it will create jobs. Many economists disagree, but listening to Bernanke and Williams today, both believe past QE programs have created hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which means they believe another QE program will create jobs. Bernanke probably keeps his job if Obama is reelected. He probably does not if Romney is elected. If he wants to continue to be the Fed Chairman, in his mind, he has to do another QE program now. He has the votes. Most of the voting members of the Fed's Open Market Operations Committee are in favor of more immediate stimulus.

8 - I believe the odds are very high that some sort of QE3 program will be announced at the September 12th/13th meeting. That will be bullish in the short-term for stocks and for precious metals and commodities. It is an inflationary step. It is a dollar devaluation step.

[KeiZai]

The DAX seems to be wandering on a knifes edge right now...

BMW update

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=637&p=89165#p89165

The attachment BMW-sept.png is no longer available

That's for sure, I have two medium term counts for DAX and both are short-term bearish (preferred is the first one)

Preferred

Valid in the case if DAX will not make a new high

[tigerjim]

PAGING STOCKCHARTS SUBSCRIBERS

You can now add more DUPLICATE symbols on one chart without extra charge.
(This might depend on your subscription level… not sure).
Previously we had 6 symbols limit per chart maximum, period.
Now you can add more duplicate symbols, you just cannot add new/other symbols.
To Illustrate: this is my intermediate-term “Trend Follower” chart which I have posted many times on board (still Bull since early June).
You may recall, I couldn’t fit in all the different 5/10/20 ma cross lines, so I had to continually jump to another chart to confirm a signal.
Now, because so many of these symbols are dupes, I can add the extra ma cross line, PLUS A FEW EXTRA SYMBOLS added to the bottom of this chart just to illustrate my point.

91wkndappel.png

If that is unclear, here are the settings:

more than 6 symbols.png

Great charts as always - thanks for the settings.

[KeiZai]

Going long CORN on monday, target is around 1000, till spring IMHO

The attachment Corn.png is no longer available

How is the Point Figure training coming along?

here is a thoughthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EdtONUxp9b0

Isaac just made it to midwest and we only got about a 0.1 inch....farmers here are saying without normal+ rain in next month, soil moisture will be too dry to germinate wheat and others....grain inflation could be worse next year, glad I do not own cattle or raise horses because hap and oat price has more than doubled ,

something worth watching very L/T
GL, Joe

I bought the book recommended by Kena (thanks Kena ) but I am still in the learning process Thanks and GL Joe!

EDIT: Hey Joe one more thing, can you please look at P&F charts FDX and UNP? they are most weighted stocks in TRAN...thanks much appreciated!

FedEx

FedEx

"

[gappy]

untitled.png

DWCF-9-2-1-P.png

From 99er and Tiho

[TraderGirl]

Per this research you can expect more gains despite consumer discretionary not leading. For details see the link below.

SPX_Risk_Filter_Chart-3.jpg

http://www.seeitmarket.com/using-moment ... io-filter/

Nice chart Harapa, do u have an updated chart to show current comparisons? Looks like at that time when XLY/XLP printed a lower high the market experienced a pullback shortly thereafter.
Maybe Dr. Al could recreate this chart to see if there are any similarities?

[TraderGirl]

I hope all of you enjoy the 3 day weekend. Following is from an article.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!
I believe QE3 is coming, probably to be announced formally at the September 12th/13th meeting, here is why;

1 - Bernanke's speech sounded like he was signaling to markets that he plans a strong stimulus program very soon.

2 - It sounded as if he does not need to see further deteriorating economic conditions to conduct a Fed stimulus policy.

3 - Bernanke used the term "gravely concerned" about the Jobs market situation.

4 - Since the Humphrey Hawkins Law was passed, the Fed now has a dual mandate, to maintain price stability (keep inflation low), and to support a suitable employment rate.

5 - He clearly said Friday that the second mandate is not being achieved at present and that more needs to be done to improve the employment situation.

6 - Later in the day Friday, John Williams, the President of the San Francisco Fed, practically announced that the Fed was about to do a QE3 or similar program to stimulate the economy, and sooner rather than later. He was clear that he wants the Fed to do a preemptive stimulus program before a negative economic shock hits the system. He used the metaphor that it is like strengthening the patient before a disease comes, so when it comes, he can handle it.
Williams actually discussed how the program may be structured. He emphasized flexibility, without specific limits or types of securities purchases being detailed.
Clearly this coming QE3 is planned, ready, and about to be announced.

7 - Bernanke has another incentive to do a QE3 program, and sooner rather than later. If Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Bernanke will be looking for a new job in 2014. The Los Angeles Times ran an article by Jim Puzzanghera on August 24th quoting Romney as saying, "I would want to select someone who was . . . a new person to that chairman's position, someone who shared my economic views, that I thought was sympathetic to the needs of our nation."

This means it is legacy time for Bernanke. With 23 million people out of work, Bernanke has failed to achieve the second mandate for the Fed under his leadership. With time possibly running out, if Romney wins election, Bernanke needs to do something now to get people employed. If he does QE3 now, the Fed believes it will create jobs. Many economists disagree, but listening to Bernanke and Williams today, both believe past QE programs have created hundreds of thousands of jobs. Which means they believe another QE program will create jobs. Bernanke probably keeps his job if Obama is reelected. He probably does not if Romney is elected. If he wants to continue to be the Fed Chairman, in his mind, he has to do another QE program now. He has the votes. Most of the voting members of the Fed's Open Market Operations Committee are in favor of more immediate stimulus.

8 - I believe the odds are very high that some sort of QE3 program will be announced at the September 12th/13th meeting. That will be bullish in the short-term for stocks and for precious metals and commodities. It is an inflationary step. It is a dollar devaluation step.

Thanks for the info TJ