09/11/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

If you're StockCharts member, please do me a little favor by "vote" and the most importantly "follow" my public chart list here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859. You need "follow" only once but vote can be done everyday, so whenever you have time, please vote for me, thanks! If you're not StockCharts member, you can also help boosting my rank by clicking the link once everyday.

Please, again, all my calls in the daily live update is for intra-day only, they're absolutely invalid when the closing bell rings. If you're interested in the forecast for days and weeks, please subscribe my daily newsletter services.

Also personal attack on any board members won't be tolerated. Please limit your topic to trade related only.


Good morning guys. A Global DNS problem yesterday, lots of guys cannot visit the forum and I did receive some complains about cannot reach the forum, which actually makes me feel relieved because apparently this forum is part of some traders life. I'll work harder to make this forum better and meanwhile should you feel my intra-day update is helpful, please consider subscribing my daily newsletter services. I intend to keep the forum free because a paid service on intra-day update could be expensive, so I'd rather sell some daily market commentaries to support making this forum free. Thanks.

Small gap up within yesterday's range, so the gap might be filled.

The Global ES rebounded from the Fib 38.2 and on the way to test the previous high which is key time because anytime testing the previous extreme there's a chance of reversal, so no failure allowed for bulls here. Patriotically today should favor bulls because, well, for obvious reasons.

[Cobra]

DAX. consolidation above the breakout point is good as it makes the breakout solid.

[Tutti]

9/11
Never Forget.

[joe-gamma]

feels difficult to be short-expecting downtick range with possibly some upside after europe close , swing time frame has momentum curling up, here is 4hr bars for midcap

futurs (iwm)

midcap911.png (9.61 KiB) Viewed 6347 times

and ES futurs, maybe a stronger close like asia today?

es

es911.png (9.84 KiB) Viewed 6347 times

GLTA

[TraderJoe]

Russia is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth of GOLD every month.

Interesting article By Brett Arends

I can’t imagine it means anything cheerful that Vladimir Putin, the Russian czar, is stockpiling gold as fast as he can get his hands on it.

According to the World Gold Council, Russia has more than doubled its gold reserves in the past five years.

Putin has taken advantage of the financial crisis to build the world’s fifth-biggest gold pile in a handful of years, and is buying about half a billion dollars’ worth every month.

It emerged last month that financial gurus George Soros and John Paulson had also increased their bullion exposure, but it’s Putin that’s really caught my eye.

No one else in the world plays global power politics as ruthlessly as Russia’s chilling strongman, the man who effectively stole a Super Bowl ring from Bob Kraft, the owner of the New England Patriots, when they met in Russia some years ago.

Putin’s moves may matter to your finances, because there are two ways to look at gold.

You can forget claims that it’s “real” money. There’s no such thing. Money is just an accounting device, a way of keeping track of how much each of us produces and consumes.

But there’s another way to look at gold: As the most liquid reserve in times of turmoil, or worse.

The big story of our era is not that the Spanish government is broke, nor is it that Paul Ryan apparently feels the need to embellish his running record. It’s that the United States, which has dominated the world’s economy for several lifetimes, is in relative decline.

According to International Monetary Fund calculations, the U.S. is on track to lose its status as the world’s biggest economy—when measured in real, purchasing-power terms—to China by 2017.

We will soon be the first people in two hundred years to live in a world not dominated by either Pax Americana or Pax Britannica. This sort of changing of the guard has never been peaceful. The declines of the Spanish, French and British empires were all accompanied by conflict. The decline of British hegemony was a leading cause of the First and Second World Wars.

What will happen as the U.S. loses its pre-eminence?

Maybe this will turn out better than similar episodes in the past. Maybe the Chinese will embrace an open society and the rule of law. If you believe that, there is probably no reason to hold any gold.

On the other hand, we may be about to enter a much more turbulent and dangerous era of power politics and international competition.

Not long ago, world gold reserves were mainly in the hands of the U.S. and the Europeans, which accumulated their holdings during their centuries at the top. The U.S. has 75% of its currency reserves in gold. Many other first world powers have comparable proportions.

But that’s beginning to change. According to the World Gold Council, China, Saudi Arabia and Russia are now in the top five. Western European countries have been selling gold. If the current financial crisis gets any worse, they may yet sell more.

Emerging markets have been buying. In most cases, gold remains a very small percentage of their total reserves. China, despite its recent buying, holds less than 2% of its currency reserves in gold.

But you have to wonder how long emerging countries will want to hold their reserves in any currency that is controlled by someone else. Vladimir Putin clearly doesn’t want to. Gold now accounts for 9% of Russia’s reserves, and that figure is rising.

The gold price has had a shakeout since peaking at around $1,900 an ounce a year ago. It fell as low as $1,566 in June. Since then, it has risen to $1,688.

But that shakeout has been exaggerated by the rally in the U.S. dollar over most of the past year. Put another way: Priced in Euros, gold is nearly back to its old high. It’s 1,343 Euros per ounce, just shy of the 1,356 euro record set a year ago.

The most common means of buying gold is either in bullion or through an exchange-traded bullion fund such as the SPDR Gold Shares. And maybe that’s sensible.

But you might also take a look at shares in gold-mining companies. They are at, or near, historic lows when compared with the gold price. Contrarians may take that as a buying signal.

The Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, which tracks the stocks of precious-metal mining companies, stood at 170 on Tuesday—a level first seen five years ago, in September 2007, when gold itself was just $730 an ounce. Relative to gold itself, the Philly index is about 60% below the average levels seen since 1985.

Die-hard gold fans will tell you that the mining stocks involve all sorts of extra risks that you don’t get with the metal. Companies can be mismanaged. Mining costs go up. Countries can wallop miners with windfall taxes.

They’re right on all of the above. On the other hand, the equities are cheap and they do generate cash flow. Barrick Gold ABX, the world’s biggest, trades at eight times forecast earnings, with a dividend yield of nearly 2%. Newmont NEM is trading at 10 times forecast earnings, yielding 2.8%.

[jarbo456]

9/11
Never Forget.

indeed.

just wanted to wish everyone a somber 9/11 remembrance. for those of us in NYC, it's all still very present, even if it's been 11 years.

[Cobra]

the open. usually the rebound would fail because the down leg yesterday was too strong.

[Out of Bounds]

All cash - waiting. I trust nothing.

[TradingJackal]

All cash - waiting. I trust nothing.

Ditto. Though the bias should be to the upside. We got very favorable news this morning. US credit rating downgrade, etc. Print...Print...Print...

[Al_Dente]

AAPL

“…(JPM) estimated … that sales of the new phone, expected to start later this month, ‘could potentially add’ from one-quarter to one-half of a percentage point to the growth rate of U.S. gross domestic product in the final quarter of the year…”

http://marketmontage.com/2012/09/11/app ... Montage%29

[Out of Bounds]

All cash - waiting. I trust nothing.

Ditto. Though the bias should be to the upside. We got very favorable news this morning. US credit rating downgrade, etc. Print...Print...Print...

Starting watch WFC - Wells Fargo. I bite with one small position.

[Cobra]

strong opening, not sure if the rebound would fail anymore.

[Out of Bounds]

[quote="Out of Bounds"
Starting watch WFC - Wells Fargo. I bite with one small position.[/quote]

Behaving, got more -

[TradingJackal]

1435.25 morning high on ES? I would be buyer of the dip.

[Cobra]

maybe now it should go like this, 2 legged up.

[Cobra]

my aapl call, remember to check my public chart list, I update my aapl call almost every day there. http://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/c ... /260183775;

[BullBear52x]

fear factors will be my highlighted in a day or two. VIX 16.5 is something I am looking at.

[Petsamo]

IWM is close to busting yesterday's high but SPY is currently not interested

[KENA]

Took good profit in VELT one of my swing longs on the run up this morn.The stoh's are getting hi so maybe it is a good move.Lets see what happens now.

[Cobra]

small pullback or consolidation here is good, just no sharp down.