09/15/2012 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

Paging Doc Al, XLF. see Vol and the indicators above where I circle. nice break out but short term pull back is imminent.IMHO

Boss I concur but I’m thinking pullback might be a BTFD opportunity, and I’m ignoring any/all the overbought stuff until price confirms by turning.
Ps what is your panel directly above price?
See u tomorrow

[BullBear52x]

Paging Doc Al, XLF. see Vol and the indicators above where I circle. nice break out but short term pull back is imminent.IMHO

Boss I concur but I’m thinking pullback might be a BTFD opportunity, and I’m ignoring any/all the overbought stuff until price confirms by turning.
Ps what is your panel directly above price?
See u tomorrow

Dip will be bought for sure. the indicator is B%

[BullBear52x]

short term crew, here I use MAs of $one:$vix over SPY price, interesting.

[Cobra]

Nothing special on II and AAII because FOMC is on Thursday (after this week's survey), so the next week's data might be interesting, even I don't think this market would ever pullback anymore...

Cobra, this happened in 2010 and 2011 summer, huge rally break up and just when everyone thinks market will never pull back, it does.

Will this weekend's report say I see topping signals but don't short yet?

At least wait until I see short-term top pattern first.

Admit or not, insisting seeing a short-term top pattern keeps you in the right trend. Front run is dangerous.

This weekend report would be with massive charts. Usually when I do massive charts, the conclusion is wrong. What's the conclusion this time? I see blah blah blah evidences, but please ignore them because I myself even don't want to believe them.

[noob]

Nothing special on II and AAII because FOMC is on Thursday (after this week's survey), so the next week's data might be interesting, even I don't think this market would ever pullback anymore...

Cobra, this happened in 2010 and 2011 summer, huge rally break up and just when everyone thinks market will never pull back, it does.

Will this weekend's report say I see topping signals but don't short yet?

At least wait until I see short-term top pattern first.

Admit or not, insisting seeing a short-term top pattern keeps you in the right trend. Front run is dangerous.

This weekend report would be with massive charts. Usually when I do massive charts, the conclusion is wrong. What's the conclusion this time? I see blah blah blah evidences, but please ignore them because I myself even don't want to believe them.

Pullback might be shallow this time. When short term top pattern emerges, might be time to long again.

[KeiZai]

Hi weekenders, thanks for charts,info etc

I will stay up all night with charts, coming days, weeks will be very important for those who want make serious money and we want right?

I am going to buy myself small christmas present, 2000 shares of MOTR (0.50? - 0.55) with stop at 0.40 what is 200-300$ risk...I hope that Benny will inflate it to 200

MOTR
0.43 is solid support, tested 7 times, above 50 MA, breakout etc...I guess I will give it a try (LT idea)

[Mr. BachNut]

Put Call ratios and divergence between OEX and others is flashing yellow to me, but it could be like January.
The OEX positioning kind of aligns with the COT commercial hedger position below.

Put Call Ratios.jpg

what is your thought on MO, both NY/NAMO reading >50.?

I have MO overbought but needing a few more days up in the thin air before I get a statistically interesting short setup.
That doesn't mean things couldn't turn South Monday. It does mean that if things haven't cooled off by mid-week, there will be pretty solid odds on a tradeable counter-trend downdraft in the following days.

I have been finding in recent weeks though, with MO as well as longer term TRIN, the bears have been selling/shorting just enough to work off or avoid juicy overbought conditions but not enough to tip a sell stampede. So, I guess I expect more of the same. Some good day trading pull backs but no deep dive.

[Cobra]

Nothing special on II and AAII because FOMC is on Thursday (after this week's survey), so the next week's data might be interesting, even I don't think this market would ever pullback anymore...

Cobra, this happened in 2010 and 2011 summer, huge rally break up and just when everyone thinks market will never pull back, it does.

Will this weekend's report say I see topping signals but don't short yet?

At least wait until I see short-term top pattern first.

Admit or not, insisting seeing a short-term top pattern keeps you in the right trend. Front run is dangerous.

This weekend report would be with massive charts. Usually when I do massive charts, the conclusion is wrong. What's the conclusion this time? I see blah blah blah evidences, but please ignore them because I myself even don't want to believe them.

Pullback might be shallow this time. When short term top pattern emerges, might be time to long again.

chart pattern never lies, unlike signals. The fact we didn't spot any short-term top pattern recently should prove the pattern is reliable because it kept you in the right trend. I think you mixed the signals with the chart pattern.

[ZimZeb]

Could u explain what “HighRev” is?

He's just a man (at least I think he's a man). With a blog. I'll PM you a link.

[ZimZeb]

That is nice avatar you got there.

Don't forget to vote!

[Mr. BachNut]

Put Call ratios and divergence between OEX and others is flashing yellow to me, but it could be like January.
The OEX positioning kind of aligns with the COT commercial hedger position below.

Put Call Ratios.jpg

in the last month everyone has traded mainly CALL options, i think if the market will be at a top the next friday, it will be a blood bath for Market Makers, they will have to pay a lot, and who bought call option would make massive money. Market makers are not here to lose money; or maybe MM will sell massive stocks to who bought call at the top, there are many interpretations, we will see

Good point. While I have gotten leary of Opex max pain, the open interest on SPY does appear lopsided on the call side until around SPY 142. So, there is an argument for a clock cleaning to occur at some point in the week.

[noob]

Nothing special on II and AAII because FOMC is on Thursday (after this week's survey), so the next week's data might be interesting, even I don't think this market would ever pullback anymore...

Cobra, this happened in 2010 and 2011 summer, huge rally break up and just when everyone thinks market will never pull back, it does.

Will this weekend's report say I see topping signals but don't short yet?

At least wait until I see short-term top pattern first.

Admit or not, insisting seeing a short-term top pattern keeps you in the right trend. Front run is dangerous.

This weekend report would be with massive charts. Usually when I do massive charts, the conclusion is wrong. What's the conclusion this time? I see blah blah blah evidences, but please ignore them because I myself even don't want to believe them.

Pullback might be shallow this time. When short term top pattern emerges, might be time to long again.

chart pattern never lies, unlike signals. The fact we didn't spot any short-term top pattern recently should prove the pattern is reliable because it kept you in the right trend. I think you mixed the signals with the chart pattern.

Thanks. Let's see how next week plays out. This weekend's report is one of the best I remember.

Let's hope this market is still capable of pullback. Otherwise what's the point of technical analysis or chart patterns? Just buy buy buy.

[Cobra]

Let's hope this market is still capable of pullback. Otherwise what's the point of technical analysis or chart patterns? Just buy buy buy.

you can consider I'm emotionally capitulated because even I don't believe this market would ever pullback anymore.

[daytradingES]

Good weekend everyone!

I posted my thoughts on why MBS late on Friday
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=671&start=260#p95066

Thank you everyone for the charts.

[daytradingES]

I have a spreadsheet that I ahve been working on for 5 very long years.
Unfortunately for me, the Fed started its hyjinks about 8 months into the project with its first manipulation the biggest change in the discount window in 30 years (150bp in one go). It was Dec 2007 (I think) so after the double top in the SP500 and when the index had started to fall.

In any case, I wish I had chosen something not so manipulated. (I am currently trying to make the move to corn - but I missed the big bull move from the drought and I'm not familiar with corn's moves after a big drought.)

Simplifying, the spreadsheet is to try and estimate the first move of the day, the high of the day and time the low of the day and time and which is first the HOD or LOD.

This morning I started my journal with the question:
"What do I need to know before a trade?"

(This would me a day trade in the ES - so trends beyond a few hours aren't really there in the question. And as the ES reverses so often that too is a factor. The multiplier on the ES is $50 a point so a 12 pt range is +-$600).

So I thought I'd put the question to the board:

What is the things you need to know before entering a trade on the ES to have positive expectancy on a trade that is non-indicator based ( so back-testing isn't in the cards)?

Thanks for any thoughts you might like to share.

Ian

[KeiZai]

Euro-dollar (Elliott wave, most likely outcome) something similar I expect in the SP500 (small dip then 1500+ bigger dip 1600+)

[Jcantrade]

$NYLOW was around 80 the last two trading days. Did I get the wrong number or is it just odd? Usually this means a bottom.

[Cobra]

$NYLOW was around 80 the last two trading days. Did I get the wrong number or is it just odd? Usually this means a bottom.

No, NYLOW above 1,000 means bottom.

[KeiZai]

Silver, very short-term weakness is possible but 37 is my main level of interest before any meaningful pullback (or break of the trendline but it could be a trap!)

Pullback is buying opportunity not shorting!


EDIT: sorry I meant two and a half year old channel not trendline, I am drunk already

[KeiZai]

Based on this chart Asian markets are huge opportunity (their companies are far better than ours (western world) with huge opportunity to rise, cheap workforce, good management, capital etc )

Aberdeen Asian Smaller Companies (The fund invests in the public equity markets of the Australia, Asia including Bangladesh, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Pakistan, The Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and outside Japan. It seeks to invest in stocks of companies operating across diversified sectors. The fund primarily invests in stocks of small cap companies with market capitalization of under US $750 million. It employs fundamental analysis, bottom-up investment, and top-down investment approach focusing on management, business focus, the balance sheet, corporate governance, financial ratios, the market, the peer group, and business prospects to create its portfolios.)

AAS

chart by Silverstone