09/28/2012 Live Update

[Cobra]

I said I don't like this pullback. now we may see rebound here but again this bear has legs.

[BullBear52x]

BUY is now ticking.........tick tick tick.

[MrMiyagi]

TRIN back toward Bear Country 1.87.

[vats]

Hi, I have not posted anything in quite a while, but , I have been keeping up with all the postings almost everyday.
I have a question re: SLV. I have been long SLV for last 3 months. Now I wonder if it can go over $34??? Any chance of it going to $50??

[BullBear52x]

Bears are drilling for the 3rd.

[MrMiyagi]

Hi, I have not posted anything in quite a while, but , I have been keeping up with all the postings almost everyday.
I have a question re: SLV. I have been long SLV for last 3 months. Now I wonder if it can go over $34??? Any chance of it going to $50??

QEinfinity pretty much says YES.
It would take some time though.

[BullBear52x]

Adv/Dec not ready to give in yet. still bullish per my minute chart.

[Jack12]

back down to 1437ish?... if that breaks ..could see a nasty close... or nasty open on monday. fwiw.

Yes this looks like wave 2 of C, lower than 1438 or the LOD will confirm wave 3 of C and the target is far far far away....

[lazytrader]

Quarter ending on a friday...market makers are having fun with options...aapl doing wild moves all day...better to shut the computer and call it a weekend early.

[Jack12]

September and October are notoriously volatile months. According to Bloomberg:


"In Sept. 1929 the DJIA declined 9.7%, kicking off the October crash. In Sept. 1930, the Dow fell 15%. In Sept. 1974, it lost 9%, completing a four-month slide of 29%. In Sept. 2001, the Dow slid 19%, in 2002 14%, and 2011 it lost 9%."
Beware if you Dare

[MrMiyagi]

[BullBear52x]

OK while everyone is waiting for the good moment.

hourly chart here, RSI down trend is strong, resist at 50 line, MACD not quite bearish screaming sell if bearish cross over this time, pricing = lots of air beneath.

[noob]

I said I don't like this pullback. now we may see rebound here but again this bear has legs.

H&S in the making according to plan?

[Tutti]

September and October are notoriously volatile months. According to Bloomberg:


"In Sept. 1929 the DJIA declined 9.7%, kicking off the October crash. In Sept. 1930, the Dow fell 15%. In Sept. 1974, it lost 9%, completing a four-month slide of 29%. In Sept. 2001, the Dow slid 19%, in 2002 14%, and 2011 it lost 9%."
Beware if you Dare

Just to play Devil's Advocate. Also as I hate 1 sided arguments that lack substantial facts and appeal to the emotion rather than the brain as BBerg is frequent to provide:

Yes there have been some 3+ Sigma moves in the market and that skews the mean performance, but lets dig a bit deeper than 1" below the surface.

As per the Stock Traders Almanac: "...October is a bear killer and turned the tide in 11 post post WWII bear markets 1946,57,60,62,66,74,87,90,98,01 & 02" "October is a great time to buy" " Big October Gains five year 1999-2003 after atrocious Septembers"

The worst month is September:

The worst month in terms of performance?

September (by far).

Since 1929, the DJIA has fallen an average of 1.46% in September.

Since 1971, the NASDAQ has dropped an average of 1.02% in September.

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has dropped an average of 0.69% in September.

September is the worst month of the year for the three major North American stock market indexes, and it's not even close.

For instance, the second worst month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average is -0.11% (May).

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Monthly Stock Performance.GIF (39.58 KiB) Viewed 5937 times

Let the charts guide you not hysteria...

[Cobra]

rebound is weak, I'm disappointed.

[fehro]

sitting on a possible red dotted trendline.. break it sharp move to 1438.

[Al_Dente]

Looks like testing and backtesting the 9/13 QE pink lines

[noob]

rebound is weak, I'm disappointed.

I doubt 144 spy will hold....

[BullBear52x]

Bulls or Bears alike, SPY:VIX is some thing to look at. I am serious. a break down here will take months to recover.

[joe-gamma]

Page Cobra: rsp filled gap, pointing to broad based strength in this uptick? (ie: can we see tick hit 1000 this afternoon)?
thanks!

Yes, you learnt well, young Padawan. Patience! Feel the force around you!

oops, worked great yesterday when spy hit retrace but rsp failed on upticks--you nudged me to own some puts overnight, THANKS!
as for voting, I click it from 2 different spots daily....will WRITE YOU IN FOR NOVEMBER....